CAREERBUILDER CHALLENGE: The PGA Tour makes its annual pilgrimage to Palm Springs this week for the CareerBuilder Challenge, which for decades was known as the Bob Hope Classic. Though Mr. Hope is no longer around and the tournament lost some of its uniqueness when it was reduced from five rounds to four back in 2012, it’s still a Pro-Am for three days and thus retains some of the laid-back vibe that was its trademark back when the Arnold Palmers of the world were entertaining the galleries.
A number of courses in the Palm Springs/Palm Desert area have hosted this event over the years, with a three-course rotation being the traditionally favored format. This year’s rotation, with PGA West’s Stadium and Tournament courses and LaQuinta Country Club being used over the first three days, followed by all the action being moved to the Stadium Course on Sunday, is identical to what they did last year, so we have a good idea of what to expect.
Scores are always low in this tournament on account of friendly pin positions that help speed up amateur play, and all three of this week’s venues are par-72 layouts that measure less than 7,200 yards, so length is not an issue. What you do want is someone who can make birdies in bunches.
Jason Dufner reached 25-under and took home the trophy last year, but he was fresh off a top-10 at the Sony Open and nothing about his current form would suggest that he’s a threat to repeat. Nevertheless, at 43.0 he’s one of 17 players that is currently priced between 21.0 and 49.0 atop BETDAQ’s Win Market, a number that should be an indication of just how wide-open things are this week. Those at the very top of the world rankings have stayed away, but it’s still a talented field full of players who are itching to go after a long (err, brief) offseason. Here are my thoughts:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Jamie Lovemark (28.0)- Though he hasn’t yet won on Tour, Lovemark has been a force in the golf world since his amateur days and is primed for a breakout year in 2017. He capped off 2016 with a 6th-place showing at the RSM Classic, and last week he showed he was still in top form with a 4th-place finish at the Sony. We’re looking for someone who isn’t afraid to go low this week, and Lovemark’s card from last week– 64-68-65-65– shows that he is certainly capable. Plus, his top-10 in this event last year is proof that he feels comfortable with the courses being used, and that shouldn’t come as a surprise considering Lovemark is a native Californian who has spent most of his golfing life in the golden state. Make no mistake: he’s one of the favorites this week.
Luke List (45.0)- I believe List is still flying under many people’s radar, but if the last few months are any indication that may soon change. The 32-year old Vanderbilt product is playing the best golf of his career, logging top-15 finishes in each of his last five starts, including a T13 at the Sony Open last week. He’s played this tournament twice, making the cut both times and finishing 6th last year, so the courses are obviously to his liking, and the fact that he’s a combined 70-under par over his past 20 competitive rounds is proof enough of his ability to go low. One of the longest guys on Tour, List has never met a par-5 he didn’t like, and this week he’ll get 16 of them, most reachable in two. I’m telling you… don’t sleep on this guy.
Chez Reavie (70.0)- I always try to throw in at least one longshot, and at a price like 70.0 I guess Reavie fits the bill. As longshots go, however, Reavie is certainly a live one– he closed with a 61 (!) in Hawaii last week to sneak into the top-10, and he had finished 4th in his previous start, the OHL Classic. A West Coast guy who played collegiately at Arizona State, Reavie is very familiar with desert golf, and I’m sure he feels good about his chances this week after tying for 17th in this event last year. Reavie has a lot going for him here: he’s hot at the moment, he fits the profile of a guy who should excel at PGA West, and his price is downright juicy. Definitely worth a bet, in my opinion.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Paul Casey (1.86) vs. Jon Rahm (1.86)
Casey had a big year in 2016, but he’s only played this tournament once, missing the cut, and his missed cut at the Sony last week suggests that he hasn’t yet shaken off the offseason rust. We haven’t seen Rahm in action since November’s OHL Classic, but he logged two top-15s in three Fall Series events to cap off a huge rookie year that saw him rack up eight top-25 finishes in just 12 starts. An aggressive birdie-making machine, Rahm seems like a perfect fit for this tournament, so I’m not really concerned about the fact that this is his debut appearance. His odds in the overall market may be a little short, but I’m all over Rahm in a one-on-one matchup with someone like Casey. Recommendation: Rahm at 1.86
Phil Mickelson (1.82) vs. Francesco Molinari (1.91)
Mickelson makes his return to competitive golf this week after undergoing surgery for two sports hernias, and his record in this tournament speaks for itself: two victories and several other top-10 finishes, including a T3 last year. He’s apparently only been back to hitting balls for a week, however, and it’s reasonable to question his bounce-back ability at age 46. I wouldn’t be surprised if he throws in a low round or two this week, but I doubt he’ll beat someone like Molinari, who finished 1st-6th-4th in his final three events of 2016. The straight-hitting Italian has made the cut in this tournament in each of the past two years, finishing 10th in 2015. Recommendation: Molinari at 1.92
