Carolina Panthers (2-1, 2-1 ATS) @ Baltimore Ravens (2-1, 1-1-1 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Baltimore -3.5 (41)
Significant Injuries
Carolina: LB Thomas Davis (questionable– hip), RB Jonathan Stewart (questionable– knee), RB Fozzie Whittaker (doubtful– thigh), OT Garry Williams (doubtful– back)
Baltimore: DE Chris Canty (questionable– knee), DT Timmy Jernigan (out– knee), OT Eugene Monroe (out– knee)
Recent Trends
Carolina is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss
Carolina is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record
Baltimore is 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a winning record
Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games
The UNDER is 5-0 in Carolina’s last 5 home games
The UNDER is 9-2 in Carolina’s last 11 games overall
The UNDER is 9-3 in Baltimore’s last 12 home games
Three reasons to back Carolina
1. The Panthers have a vicious defense that underperformed in a loss to Pittsburgh last week, so they should be fully focused and on-edge for a Baltimore offense that has scored more than 26 points just once in their last 16 games.
2. Carolina’s new-look receiving corps is off to a promising start this season, and Cam Newton has steadily improved as a pocket passer since coming into the league. As a result the Panthers have been a pass-first team this year, ranking 10th in passing offense while struggling to run the ball. That should work out well against the Ravens, whose secondary has been a disappointment this season, ranking 25th in passing defense.
3. The Ravens have been a bad bet at home lately, failing to cover in 4 of their last 5 home games. They’ll also be missing starting left tackle Eugene Monroe, which is definitely an issue against a Carolina front seven that may be the NFL’s best. It’s difficult to imagine the Baltimore offense having much success in this game.
Three reasons to back Baltimore
1. The Baltimore defense should feast on a Carolina offense that hasn’t been able to do much of anything this season. The Panthers’ usual strength– their running game– has been neutralized, as they’re averaging fewer rush yards per game than all but 3 teams leaguewide. The Ravens, meanwhile, are allowing just 16.7 points per game.
2. The Ravens have been good on both sides of the ball this season, ranking in the top-half of the league in both total offense and total defense. Their lone loss came against a Cincinnati team that leads the NFL in point differential. Carolina, on the other hand, was beaten soundly last week by a Pittsburgh team that lost to Baltimore 26-6 in Week 2.
3. In a game between two teams that struggle to run the ball and excel at stopping the run, the difference will be the play of the quarterbacks. Baltimore’s Joe Flacco is a proven veteran who has succeeded in the toughest, most pressure-packed situations that the NFL has to offer, while Carolina’s Cam Newton is an inaccurate passer who uses his athleticism to make up for his shortcomings as a passer. Unfortunately for Newton, his scrambling ability has been, and will continue to be, severely limited by cracked ribs.
Prediction
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