CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: The second Champions League semi-final tonight between Atletico Madrid v Bayern Munich (7.45pm BT SPORT).
Atletico Madrid v Bayern Munich 7-45
Hopefully we see a bit more action here than we did in the 0-0 last night between Manchester City and Real Madrid, but if Atletico’s home record in the Champions League is anything to go by, we could be in for another 0-0!
Atletico have kept a clean sheet in 13 of their last 15 Champions League games at the Calderon, that is some stat when you think about it, even keeping Barcelona at bay in the quarter finals – it has now been 429 minutes since the last goal went in against Atletico here in the Champions League, a clean sheet for them tonight is currently trading around 3.0 and that looks to be a shade of value, even with Bayern’s attacking force.
As we seen last night, when we get this deep into the tournament, the first legs can often be cagey affairs with the fear of losing taking over, under 2.5 goals is only trading at around 1.5 tonight though and that looks priced correctly so no value there. A full time score of 0-0 doesn’t seem value at 7.6 either, even with Atletico’s record here.
In the 90 minutes market, there are reasons to oppose Bayern at 2.56, they are without a win in their last seven away games in the knockout stages of Champions League, and factoring in the 13 in 15 Atletico clean sheets, 2.56 does look to be on the low side and worthy of a lay, especially when you consider too that Atletico have only lost once under Simeone here in the Champions League. Bayern may be the top scorers this season so far with 28 goals, but at the odds we feel it’s worth laying Bayern at 2.56 and having a smaller stake on Atletico clean sheet at 3.0+.
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