CHAMPIONS LEAGUE TUESDAY: We preview Tuesday’s first Champions League semi-final between REAL MADRID v ATLETICO MADRID with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
REAL MADRID V ATLETICO MADRID
7.45pm It’s a Madrid Derby for the first semi-final of this years Champions League and it should be a cracking night! This is actually the fourth season in a row that these sides have met in the knockout stages of the Champions League and Atletico are yet to win a game. They’ve drawn two and lost two – maybe they’ll fare better over two legs than a final though.
The home side are obviously favourites, however are they value at odds on? The odds at the time of writing currently stand at; Real Madrid 1.85, Atletico Madrid 5.2 and the draw is 3.7. Given that there has been so little between the sides in the recent Champions League finals, many will be happy to lay the 1.85 on Real – Atletico have only lost once in the Champions League this season too – winning seven of their ten games.
It’ll be a tough night for Atletico though, and it’s fair to say that they’ll probably play for a draw here and try win the tie with home advantage in the second leg. Real have won 35 of their last 41 Champions League games at the Bernabeu, and have found the net for 35 straight games in the competition here too. While Atletico have only lost once, Real are unbeaten in the Champions League this season. It’s hard to see Atletico winning away from home – after all Real nearly held Barcelona to a draw here recently in El Clasico, only a last minute Messi goal denied them.
The goals market is interesting. We’re used to see over 2.5 goals heavy odds on at the Bernabeu however it is odds against here. It’s currently trading 2.12 and that will tempt many. Atletico will no doubt play to defend, however they are superb on the counter and you couldn’t call Real reliable at the back.
We feel that Real can win here, however at 1.85 look a shade short to back – just from a value point of view. And while it might be a cagey start, Real won’t want to go into the second leg with a classic Atletico 0-0 away from home job (they’ve kept 27 clean sheets in 46 Champions League games), so we feel that should open the game up a little, and the 2.12 on overs is too tempting to ignore.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Over 2.5 goals at 2.12.
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