Barclays ATP World Tour Finals (Monday 5th November – Sunday 11th November 2012)
It’s not often you oppose the likes of Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray in an ATP 1000 event and don’t pick the winner when neither of the aforementioned duo make it to the quarter finals. That’s precisely what happened this past week in arguably the most unpredictable tournament of the season so far. Along with Djokovic and Murray, column picks Tomas Berdych and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga perhaps had one eye on the season-ending showpiece at the O2 as both players passed up the opportunity to win an all too rare Masters 1000 event, such is the dominance of the ‘big 4’ over the last few seasons. David Ferrer on the other hand didn’t blink in his pursuit of his first ATP 1000 event at the grand old age of 30. Paris was Ferrer’s seventh title of a quite magnificent season, a statistic unrivalled this year by any other player on tour. A special mention has to go to beaten finalist Jerzy Janowicz who had a quite remarkable tournament. Starting the year at 221 in the world, Janowicz should break the top 30 when the updated rankings are released tomorrow morning and he looks a player of some potential.
Moving onto the final week of the 2012 calendar, the eight most consistent players of the year (excluding the injured Rafael Nadal) will look to sign off in style by winning the $830,000 winners cheque, an amount that could increase further still to $1,760,000 should the eventual champion remain unbeaten for the duration of the event. Tournament favourite Novak Djokovic has qualified for the sixth successive year and despite boasting such consistency, cannot boast a similarly impressive record with just a 50% win ratio (9 from 18). A rather surprising loss to Sam Querrey last week in Bercy won’t fill Djokovic backers with a great deal of confidence and with rumours circulating that Djokovic’s father was in hospital with serious breathing problems, one can’t help but forgive the Serbian should his mind be elsewhere at the present time. That said, like most top players, Djokovic has the capability of turning it on when it matters and if in the right frame of mind this week, should take all the beating. 3.0 isn’t a price that interests me overly under the circumstances and with potential family problems coupled with a long and arduous season for Djokovic to contend with, I’ll look elsewhere for a likely event winner.
Andy Murray has had quite a year. Wimbledon finalist, Olympic gold medallist, and US Open champion are a set of achievements that many fans and pundits alike didn’t think the Scot was capable of securing. Undeterred, Murray appointed Ivan Lendl as his coach and continued plugging away by showing the talent and ability we’ve all known he had. Lendl added the self-belief that Andy was lacking and coached him specifically to win the biggest points in the biggest matches at the biggest events. Lendl’s appointment paid dividends and helped Murray to a career year, something which I hope for one he’ll build on in the coming years. As far as the tour finals are concerned however, I can’t help but think his exertions of 2012 will ultimately take their toll on him. A couple of matches over the last few weeks in which Murray has held match points could perhaps point to mental fatigue on Murray’s part and for him to win the event this week, he’ll almost certainly have to win four (possibly five) matches back-to-back against the world’s best. He certainly has the aptitude to achieve this feat but I’d be inclined to think he may fall just short. Similar to Djokovic, the 3.45 looks short enough and whilst I’d expect Murray to put up some sort of fight for the home crowd and progress through his group, he isn’t a 3.45 shot I could back with an acceptable degree of certainty.
David Ferrer on the other hand is a player in blistering form. Having secured his first ATP 1000 event just last week, Ferrer will enter the event in superb confidence and I’m hopeful the winning momentum will continue over the next seven days. Having put Tomas Berdych up last week as my main column pick, I was a little aggrieved to perhaps see the Czech not appearing to give it 110% in his ¼ final match with Gilles Simon. This is a sentiment that cannot be uttered about Ferrer as he will give you absolutely everything once he takes to the court. There’s obviously a slight risk that Ferrer will feel the effects of having played an awful lot of tennis this year so can see Ferrer’s participation going one of two ways. He’ll either continue in the same sort of form he has shown over the last couple of weeks or he’ll bow out with a whimper. I’m hopeful of the former and have every reason to be encouraged by his record at the event. Finalist in 2007, Ferrer has both current and tournament form and possesses a 5-2 head-to-head record against Juan Martin Del Potro and a 3-1 head-to-head record against Janko Tipsarevic, both of whom are in the same group as Ferrer. I don’t anticipate Ferrer topping the group as he would have to beat Roger Federer for the first time in fourteen attempts but that 2nd qualification spot is certainly up for grabs and looks to be a straight fight between Del Potro and Ferrer himself. The worry of course is Del Potro can (and has) beaten Federer and could therefore do so again. That probably makes Monday night’s match between ‘Delpo’ and Ferrer all the more crucial and could ultimately decide the fate of both players. At twice the price of Del Potro, I’ll take a punt on Ferrer improving on his decent record against the Argentinean and with a bit of luck should trade lower than his current BETDAQ price of 19.
That only leaves me to say a huge thank you for reading the column. I hope you’ve enjoyed the tennis season, my weekly thoughts, and lined your pockets with a few winners throughout the year. As always, please continue to spread the word about the column and the site in general and we’ll endeavour to keep finding you those winners, whatever your sport is.
Here’s to a similar level of success in 2013!
Selection – David Ferrer
Follow Chris on Twitter @cdquinn86
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
