It was nice to get a winner on the board this past week. David Ferrer may have been the shortest price of the three players put up but it gives us some momentum going into this week where the quality looks certain to increase as we edge ever closer to the first ATP 1000 events of the season.
Elsewhere, Milos Raonic could not continue in the winning groove as he lost a tight three-set match against up and coming American Jack Sock, and Juan Martin Del Potro looked to be suffering from the exertions of his Rotterdam win as he succumbed to a disappointing straight sets defeat to France’s Gilles Simon.
Dubai, Acapulco, and Delray Beach are this week’s destinations so let’s take a look….
ATP Dubai
The headline event for the week comes from Dubai where six of the world’s top ten line up for a winner’s purse of $429,000 so it is no surprise to see the tour’s top players so well represented. In top seed Novak Djokovic and second seed Roger Federer, eight of the last ten titles in Dubai are accounted for and it looks almost impossible to see anyone but this duo lifting the trophy next Sunday, such is their dominance at the event for the last decade. Between the pair, 57 wins have been racked up to the loss of just 7 matches which unsurprisingly is unrivalled by anyone else in the field.
So who’s the pick? Roger or Novak?
On the likely prices, it has to be Federer. Something around 8/11 about Djokovic is probably fair under the circumstances and it is difficult to disagree that he’s the likely winner based on current form and ability. Federer’s shock loss to Julien Benneteau in Rotterdam certainly wasn’t in the script for the Swiss but his record here is exemplary.
The draw has definitely been kinder to Djokovic than Federer with just a seemingly injured Juan Martin Del Potro standing between him and fourth Dubai final. Federer on the other hand finds himself in the bottom half of the draw with the likes of Janko Tipsarevic, Tomas Berdych, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. In a funny sort of way, I think Federer tends to excel in the events in which he’s a bit of an underdog and that is a position he will find himself in this coming week. Something around the 7/2 mark could look rather attractive this time next week and at the likely prices, represents far better value than the odds-on about Djokovic and I for one wouldn’t be surprised to see a Djokovic/Federer final next weekend
Selection: Roger Federer
ATP Acapulco
At the time of writing, the Acapulco draw hadn’t been made public, so to an extent, I’m writing this blind so to speak. What we do know however is who is participating and the top three in the betting will almost certainly consist of three Spaniards in Rafael Nadal, David Ferrer, and Nicolas Almagro. For that reason, I’ll stick my neck on the line and say a Spaniard will win this title! OK, so that’s not a particularly bold statement but it’s almost certain to be an accurate one.
Nadal will surely start a very short priced favourite because of who he is and what he’s already achieved on 2013 since his comeback from injury. I’m still concerned by his knees (as is he by all accounts) and I can’t help but think if he’s to be taken on during a clay court event, this week might be the time to do it.
David Ferrer is likely to be fine tuned for a tilt at a fourth consecutive Acapulco title following his three-set victory against Stanislas Wawrinka on Sunday afternoon in Buenos Aires and I think he has every chance of continuing where he left off. In an ideal world I’d like to see Ferrer avoid Nadal altogether with someone like Almagro or Juan Monaco dispatching of Rafa early but in reality, the pair will probably face off in the final, providing Nadal’s knees hold out on him.
Selection: David Ferrer
ATP Delray Beach
Even before looking at who the 2012 champion was and whether he lined up to defend his title, Kevin Anderson was a name that leapt off the page so to see the South African’s name on the roll of honour was very pleasing indeed. 2013 has started solidly enough for the 6’8” man from Johannesburg with a last-16 defeat to Tomas Berdych at the Australian Open but it is his final defeat to Australian Bernard Tomic in Sydney the week before, that upon reflection, looks very strong form.
Defeats of Denis Istomin and Feliciano Lopez may not have seemed particularly telling at the time. However, both men progressed to the final in Memphis which shows they are playing some decent stuff. Anderson also beat Rotterdam finalist Julien Benneteau in the Sydney semi final which further highlights the calibre of player the world number 30 has overcome already this year. As previously mentioned, Anderson is the defending champion at Delray Beach, beating Andy Roddick and John Isner en route to victory last year and the fast Floridian courts suit the South African’s game down to the ground.
From what I saw of Anderson during his time in the southern hemisphere, the thing that struck me most was how much his game had developed. It was perhaps narrow-minded of me to think his game was purely one dimensional. However, the Anderson forehand looks to have come on leaps and bounds from last season and this improved element of his game should make him a bigger threat this year than last.
Looking at the other seeded players, John Isner didn’t tear up any trees in Memphis, whilst Tommy Haas withdrew due to injury and there has to be question marks over how fit the German actually is. Sam Querrey also suffered a relatively early exit, and both Kei Nishikori and Feliciano Lopez made the Memphis final so may come into this week somewhat fatigued. Alexandr Dolgopolov is an interesting one however. Capable of some top drawer tennis, the Ukranian is an enigma I think it is fair to say and is similarly capable of some trash also. For that reason, he comes with an advisory. He did show a little bit of form last week in Tennessee by making the last eight and could build on that.
Neither Anderson nor Dolgopolov can meet until next weekend’s final at the very earliest. It’s tough enough to pick a likely winner of a competitive event such as this so to attempt naming the finalists is plain absurd. I wouldn’t put anyone off backing either Anderson or Dolgopolov this week but the case for the former seems as strong a one as I’ve put forward for some weeks and I fancy him to gain a second Delray Beach title.
Selection: Kevin Anderson
Follow Chris on Twitter @cdquinn86
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