Dallas Cowboys (11-4, 9-6 ATS) @ Washington Redskins (4-11, 5-10 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Dallas -5.5 (49)
Significant Injuries
Dallas: LB Dekoda Watson (questionable– hamstring), DT Josh Brent (questionable– calf), OT Doug Free (questionable– ankle), DT Amobi Okoye (out– illness)
Washington: LB Keenan Robinson (questionable– knee), RB Roy Helu (questionable– toe), DE Jason Hatcher (questionable– knee)
Recent Trends
Dallas is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games
Dallas is 8-18 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a losing record
Washington is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings between these 2 teams
Washington is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games
Washington is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a win
The underdog is 25-8 ATS in the last 33 meetings between these 2 teams
The OVER is 6-0 in Dallas’ last 6 road games
The UNDER is 4-1 in Washington’s last 5 home games
The UNDER is 4-1 in Washington’s last 5 games vs. NFC opponents
The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Dallas
1. The Cowboys are 11-4, they’ve won 5 of their past 6 games, and they’re coming off a 35-point demolition of an Indianapolis team that’s going to win the AFC South. The Redskins are 4-11, losers of 6 of their past 7, and they’ve covered just once in their last 6 home games. Don’t overthink it: Dallas is going to win this game, and they’ll probably win big.
2. Washington has a first-year coach whose offense, his supposed “specialty”, is producing just 18.9 points per game. That coach– Jay Gruden– publicly criticized and then benched franchise quarterback Robert Griffin III a few weeks ago, only to turn back to Griffin when Colt McCoy was placed on IR with a neck injury. Basically, the Redskins are a dysfunctional mess right now. They’ve scored 13 points or fewer in 4 of their past 6 games and should not be trusted against a Dallas team that has been terrific on the road this season, covering 6 times in 7 opportunities.
3. Dallas has been excellent on offense all year but they’ve taken it up a notch lately, producing 121 combined points in their past 3 games. They should light up the scoreboard against a Washington defense that has surrendered more points than all but 4 teams leaguewide this season (26.3 ppg allowed).
Three reasons to back Washington
1. The Skins are a generous 5.5-point home ‘dog here despite the fact that they beat this very same Dallas team just a few weeks ago. And that result wasn’t atypical, either, as Washington has now covered in 13 of the past 16 games between these bitter rivals. Plus, the Cowboys have secured a playoff berth and will most likely be locked in to the 3-seed regardless of the outcome this week, so there’s a very good chance they rest some starters in the 2nd half of this game.
2. Washington is a far better team than their record would indicate– they rank in the top-half of the league in both total offense and total defense and last week they beat a Philadelphia team that desperately needed a win. Now they have an opportunity to finish off a tough season on a high note against an arch-rival who they’ve already beaten this year. The 5.5-point number makes this one a no-brainer.
3. The Redskins have a stout defense that is especially good against the run, surrendering just 103 yards per game on the ground. Dallas has been a run-first team this year– they rank 2nd in rushing offense but 17th in passing offense– so this is a great matchup for the Washington defense. And remember, Tony Romo has two fractures in his back, so if this game turns into a shootout the Cowboys could be at a disadvantage.
Prediction
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