EIGHT NAPS UP OUT OF 10: A withdrawal forced Daqman’s nap into odds on last night but Baihas (WON 8-13) duly obliged to give him eight winning best bets from the last 10 selections, including his seventh banker from eight.
BETDAQ RACES: DAQMAN CATCHES A TARTAR AT 10.5: Daqman concentrates his analysis on four consecutive BETDAQ-sponsored races at Kempton Park tonight, raising his stake for Tartary (10.5 this morning) to win him 30 points. His nap is in an earlier race there.
The hoodies are not delinquents. The fashion statement of the season so far has been vindicated by a series of successes. The application of a hood is basically a replacement for an earful of cotton-wool, and has not the same implications as blinkers or visors.
Horses can be put off by, even shy away from, the noise of the racecourse and the hood should help Paris Rose (8.45 Ripon) who was well enough regarded to get a Ribblesdale entry.
At Fairyhouse (6.25), Late Rosebud’s sister, Yellow Rosebud – twice a Group 3 winner – was one of my favourites. Late Rosebud can bloom late, second time on a racecourse at the age of three.
I’m concentrating on the Betdaq-sponsored races at Kempton Park but the nap there is in an earlier maiden, Plover (6.30), an Oasis Dream who should take this on her learning curve.
7.30 Kempton (Betdaq 1st UK Race Commission-Free-Everyday Handicap) There are a whole load of negatives here: the stables of Mr Spiggott, Wilfred Pickles, Kilburn, Halling Dancer, Spring Tonic, Kailily and Standing Strong are all out of form.
Dettori’s mount, Xinbama, is fitted with a tongue-strap and Halling Dancer (the only Kempton winner in the race) wears first-time blinkers but, in both cases, their trainers have poor records with these aids.
Carazam has not been at his best on firm ground on turf but has won on Polytrack and prefers going right-handed, according to trainer William Jarvis.
Carazam’s jockey will be hoping those blinkers light up Halling Dancer (led at Newbury in April); otherwise it’s hard to find the pace to the race. Carazam gets further and may have to make his own running.
8.00 Kempton (£200 Free Bets At Betdaq Handicap) William Buick is 4-7 for Willie Musson but it seemingly needs a leap of faith to back Mountain Range at 5.2, since he’s without a win since 2011.
However, though his yard has been out of form, the High Chaparral gelding showed signs of a revival when a close third at Sandown last week and is now 18lb below his winning mark on today’s course.
Close market rival Attraction Ticket won a furlong further here a week ago and, according to Racing Post ratings, is well in. His form-figures at Kempton are 101 over 11 furlongs and beyond.
Addikt’s are even better: if you restrict your search to this course and 10-11f, they reveal a run of 1101.
His last three races, all over shorter, in which the earlier faster pace has caught him flat footed, have helped create the generous odds of 13.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
Bridge That Gap has won a couple of times, one of them here, but all his form is in a grade lower – in class 5, his figures are 0030 – and I can’t trust Arabela suddenly to be capable of putting back-to-back wins together.
8.30 Kempton (New Customers Commission-Free 1st Month Handicap) Kieren Fallon has ridden two for Dean Ivory in the last week: he drove Links Drive Lady home at Goodwood at 14-1 and got within a neck or so of landing a gamble at Windsor with Tropics on Monday.
They team up here with El Mirage, whose AW form figures are 141, including a fine CD win in April though in a class lower race.
Extrasolar was well in front of El Mirage at the finish at Doncaster a month ago but has been behind both Almalekiah and Pira Palace on AW surfaces.
Tartary, on the other hand, was dropped to this level on this course a month ago – the scene of his maiden success in November – but was badly away.
The second, fourth and fifth in Tartary’s maiden have all won since and one of them, the fifth home, Consign, has been aimed much higher since.
I see Tartary’s 10.5 offers on BETDAQ this morning as a big mistake, and I’m raising the stakes to a win-30 bet. He’s by Oasis Dream and in the hands of a shrewd trainer (who, incidentally, is 50% when applying a tongue-tie).
Khobaraa is a bit kinky and Red Turban is the safer saver. A few years ago, you’d have gone in blind on a Noseda first time out but they seem to need a run these days.
9.00 Kempton (Winners Are Welcome At Betdaq Handicap) Intrepid indeed. He didn’t even win first time for Noseda last year (nor second, nor third) but punters are asking him to do so now, as a warm favourite.
However, two clues suggest they may be right: he, in fact, went very well fresh on his debut last August in a decent maiden at Newmarket and, fresh again, won after a three months’ lay-off, first time on Polytrack.
Second plus: he was gelded before the AW win, at Lingfield, after twice being beaten favourite on turf.
First-time tongue-tie, and drop back to this 7f from 1m, may help Future Reference, Silvestre De Sousa’s sole mount of the evening, after four rides earlier at Southwell.
Limit Up is Mark Johnston’s sole raider: he’s claiming off the Lingfield winner with jockey-find Michael Murphy. Labienus is another whose only success has come on polytrack but he needs to improve.
Byroness (holds Reqaaba) is up in class and up in the weights, a tricky one for the three-time Kempton winner, alleviated to some extent by the claim of Ryan Tate.
The Ivory-Fallon combo are here again with Aye Aye Skipper. After leading a furlong out at Wolver and holding on gamely, Skipper’s jockey repeated the dose upped to today’s class 4 at Lingfield in November but ‘Skipper’ was caught close home.
I see Limit Up setting the pace and, dropped back from class 2 at Newmarket, may be hard to catch but I expect some precision timing from Fallon on Aye Aye Skipper, who is huge offers at 15.0.
The Gatling Boy, another dropping down in grade, is also value at 9.0, with Ryan Moore in fantastic form.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 6.6pts win CARAZAM (7.30 Kempton)
BET 4.5pts win MOUNTAIN RANGE and 1.6pts win ADDIKT (8.00 Kempton)
BET (to win 30 points) 3.1pts win and place TARTARY, and 1.3pts win (stakes saver) RED TURBAN (8.30 Kempton)
BET 2.5pts win THE GATLING BOY and 1.3pts win and place AYE AYE SKIPPER, with 2pts win (stakes saver) INTREPID (9.00 Kempton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 10pts win on each PLOVER (nap, 6.30 Kempton) and PARIS ROSE (8.45 Ripon) plus 3 x 3pt win doubles and 2pt win treble the same two with Late Rosebud (6.25 Fairyhouse)
DAQMAN’S TARGETS: Singles are each to win 20 points, except 8.30 Kempton. Daq Multiples are staked as stated.
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