BULL’S-EYE VALUE BET WITH BETDAQ BONUS: Daqman launches his Betdaq Bonus Bet on day one of Aintree today. He finds a bull’s-eye bet to win 50 points but backs it at the price he thinks it should be. In this case, he rates a 6.6 offer at 4-1 in his own pricing up. In a market of 101% for that race this morning, you are already betting big value, whichever horse you choose.
DON’T BET BLIND ON THE GRAND NATIONAL: Daqman starts his day with more facts and figures in his Grand National countdown, warning punters not to bet blind. Look out tomorrow for his pound punts and on Saturday for his final choice on the big race, which he won last year at 33-1 (BETDAQ offers taken: 50.0).
A HEAD START IGNORING BLINKERS
Don’t bet blind in the National! Since L’Escargot won in 1975, only one other horse (Comply Or Die) has scored in blinkers or visor from 91 runners.
The fact that there have been 46 in the last decade shows how the fashion for them (including visor and hood) has stepped up noticeably.
And the trend for other forms of headgear –cheekpieces, tongue ties – has run riot in the last 20 years. But, since 1997, their record in a very short time is, coincidentally, 0-97.
In the last decade, Comply Or Die apart, blinkers or similar have provided just one other placed horse. In the last 10 years, the records are:
Blinkers, visor, hood 46 runners, one win, one second, four others in first nine, ten finished 11th to 18th. Fell 7; brought down 2; unseated rider 3; pulled up 17
Cheekpieces 64 runners, no wins, 3 seconds, 2 thirds; 9 in first 10; and 12 finished 12th to 19th. Fell 14, brought down 2, unseated rider 7, pulled up 11
Tongue tie 66 runners, no wins, 2 seconds, 1 third; 13 others in the first nine. Fell 9; brought down 2; unseated rider 4; pulled up 15.
FRODON FIRST BETDAQ BONUS BET
There are those who do and those who don’t. I’m talking about the stars that can and can’t act on the very different tracks of hill-climb Cheltenham and the scouse flatlands of Liverpool. The layers love to tell you: ‘You won’t know until after the race!’
1.45 Aintree You could say that punters only got one right in the opener (at 6-5 favouurite) but, in fact, no winner of this has started bigger than 11-2, which suggests that you can put a line through the rags in this small field.
There were excuses for Top Notch (lost a hind shoe) when Yorkhill beat him a length at Chelters but the other form question you have to ask come Aintree is this: has a longish season prepping for Cheltenham and winning there left him vulnerable to something that’s been waiting in the wings for the flat track and Spring ground? The answer in a word: Frodon.
I ‘found’ Frodon for my horses-to-follow from the start of an autumn run that saw him win the Cheltenham Gold Cup Handicap and then score on a flat track at Kempton.
I was pleased to see Paul Nicholls give him a break and not get underneath him. He’s let Frodon run when he wanted to, and not confined him to a Cheltenham prep.
So here’s a horse that’s already proved he can handle different tracks and has the lighter recent campaign. Great jumper at speed, and nice price at 6.6 this morning.
I believe he should be around 4-1 which would require 12.5 points to win 50 in a bull’s-eye bet. I’ll keep that stake at the 6.6 for a BETDAQ-punt which will play up the value bonus and win me 70.
DEFI HUB OF YOUR DAQ MULTIPLES
2.20 Aintree Normally, you’d look at the form figures on the card and see that Defi de Seuil is exposed (with virtually the whole of his career at Cheltenham) and his opponents, bar Flying Tiger, still have bags of potential. But they have to close gaps of between 10lb and 39lb on official figures
Long odds-on offers (1.33 as I write) seem fairly representive of Defi’s chance, but too short for a banker. I’m going to ‘cheat’ and put him in my Daq Multiples but, at the same time, find a place horse to oppose him with.
All others in the market have bigger place odds than does Defi for the win. Brian Hughes may try to get away on front-runner Forth Bridge, 19.5 the win on BETDAQ with the stake saved on the place, or you can bet place only.
THERE’S PAYDIRT IN GOLD FORM
2.50 Aintree Bowl Cue Card strolled home in this last year but the placed horses, Don Poli and Djakadam, have won between them just one five-runner race since.
Empire of Dirt was runner-up to Sizing John in the Irish Gold Cup before John sized them all up again and took the Cheltenham gold.
Silviniaco Conti is back for this. What else would you do? He’s won it twice, and clearly loves the track.
But Conti and Cue Card – both 11 – make this look a veterans’ race. Yes, Empire Of Dirt is 10 now, but his career didn’t really get off the ground until the Leopardstown Chase last year, and he’s had just four outing since: 3.6 on BETDAQ this morning.
Bristol de Mai is better than the bare form (but officially 4lb behind my selection) and Smad Place is good on his best days but those days have never been at Aintree (form figures there: U344)
3.25 Aintree Hurdle This is not only a switch from Cheltenham to a flat track but they go up in trip to 2m 4f. However, like Defi De Seuill, here’s another young horse clear in the ratings and on a trajectory to stardom.
Buveur d’Air wasn’t stopping at the end of the Champion Hurdle and his breeding says the trip is fine. It’s another veterans’ race, with The New One now 9 and My Tent Or Yours 10. And we could get a 50% return from a BETDAQ banker bet here
SUBLIME PACHA OR RIDICULOUS 102
4.05 Aintree Foxhunters Just two in the decade have done the double of Cheltenham Foxhunter and Aintree Foxhunters, On the Fringe and Cloud Lane. On The Fringe goes for a hat-trick in this second leg today.
But Pacha Du Polder, beaten in this last year behind On The Fringe, Dineur and Mendip Express, was out of sorts that day, and his Foxhunter win at Cheltenham last month was really his big arrival. He had Beyond The Fridge and Mendip Express behind.
The answer to those who say this is a shorter race today, and he’s a hold-up horse, should check out his record. He’s won six in a row at 2m 4f. And he’s 6.2 on in the BETDAQ orange.
If this race doesn’t go to the sublime (nothing bigger than 13-2 in eight years out of 10), it goes to the ridiculous (two winners, 50-1 and 100-1).
My ’ridiculous’ one would be Jim Dreaper’s Sizing Solution at 102 to win and 24 a place on BETDAQ as I write.
4.40 Aintree Winners at 33-1, 25-1, 20-1 (twice) and 16-1 in the last nine seasons. Proven ability on the course seems to be the key, which points up Theinval (8 in the BETDAQ orange) and Raven’s Tower (11).
DAQMAN BETS (staked to win 30 unless otherwise stated)
BETDAQ BONUS BET: 12.5pts to win 70 FRODON (1.45 Aintree)
BET 1.6pts win and place FORTH BRIDGE (2.20 Aintree)
BET (to win 20) 7.5pts win EMPIRE OF DIRT (2.50 Aintree)
GOLD BANKER: BET 30pts win (nap) BUVEUR D’AIR (3.25 Aintree)
BET 6pts win PACHA DU POLDER and 1pt win and place SIZING SOLUTION (4.05 Aintree)
BET 4.2pts win THEINVAL and 3pts win and place RAVEN’S TOWER (4.40 Aintree)
AINTREE DAQ MULTIPLES: 4 x 3pt win trebles and 1pt acca Frodon (1.45), Defi De Seuil (2.20), Empire Of Dirt (2.50), Buveur d’Air (3.25)
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