FIVE NAPS UP OUT OF SIX: Swift Cedar (Won 5-1) gave Daqman his fifth winning best bet out of six on Tuesday for a naps profit of 436 points in the jumps season so far to 20-point level stakes. The five are:
WON 1-2 Bit Of A Puzzle (banker)
WON 2-1 Le Mercurey (banker)
WON 2-1 Thistlecrack ( banker)
WON 5-2 Anna De Grissay
WON 5-1 Swift Cedar
DAQMAN LEADS PRICEWISE 14-4 : Daqman went into the Christmas break with a 29-1 double in his Daq Multiples, Swift Cedar (WON 5-1) and Ian’s Memory (WON 4-1), which took his profit in four days, Saturday-Tuesday, to 121 points from 12 winning bets, three per day. The state of his main bets is:
Naps: Five out six (24 for the season)
Bankers: Five winners out of seven
Lays: Six out of seven (34 out of 38)
Daqman 14, Pricewise 4 (overall 260-99)
KING GEORGE TODAY: Daqman today analyses his pick of the nine best races on Boxing Day, including the King George at Kempton.
DON COSSACK TO BE KING FOR A DAY
3.10 Kempton (King George VI Chase) You need a previous winner on a sequence (Silviniaco Conti) or a new kid on the block (Valseu Lido, Vautour). That’s how the stats saw this race in my preview during the week.
Silviniaco Conti’s King George hat-trick bid comes with both horse and stable under a cloud. Paul Nicholls was 1-13 at the big Cheltenham meeting two weeks ago – his sole success was Old Guard – and 2-11 at Ascot at the weekend.
Perhaps it’s even more significant that, at those two major meetings combined, only one of the 24 sent out from Ditcheat started favourite.
If, over the last two weeks in which he’s had 43 runners, those few Nicholls horses that have been SP favourite were winners, that would be huge consolation to his followers but, in fact, their form figures were 2202FUP12.
Nicholls goes into the King George with returns in the race in the last 10 years of 111131P11 and Silviniaco Conti is two from two. His prep race has always been the Lancashire Chase, in which he beat Cue Card in 2013 and had that one well behind in fourth last year.
But in the same Haydock race this November, Cue Card looked back to his awesome best when careering past Silviniaco in the straight, prompting Nicholls to exchange blinkers for cheekpieces this afternoon.
Within a week another threat emerged. Smad Place stormed away 12 lengths clear of a seemingly open Hennessy, at last fulfilling the promise of his RSA second in 2014.
Road To Riches also returned impressively at Clonmel, form strengthened when the second and third were one-two in the Hilly Way at Navan.
But Irish eyes this autumn have been on Don Cossack (pictured), showing off his faultless jumping in back-to-back success at Punchestown (a stone better than Road To Riches) and in the Champion Chase at Down Royal.
That put him on a four-timer and eight out of nine, his only defeat in the Ryanair at Cheltenham. He beat the Gold Cup runner-up Djakadam in the Punchestown version in April, after finishing 26 lengths clear of Cue Card in the Melling Chase at Aintree.
Meanwhile, back at Camp Carlow the mighty Mullins outfit, responsible for Djakadam, was preparing Vautour (nine wins out of 10) for a fourth trip to England.
On two Cheltenham Festival visits, he won the Supreme Novices Hurdle by six lengths and then the Golden Miller (JLT) Novices’ Chase a year on by 15 lengths and a short-head.
The distance to the third horse is valid because that was Valseur Lido, who returned at Punchestown earlier this month to take a drubbing from Djakadam, despite getting his favoured soft-heavy ground.
Earlier, on the kind of surface we can expect today, Vautour made his reappearance at Ascot, and won well, but…
Vautour had ground conditions, and the conditions of the race itself, in his favour that day, including being in receipt of 5lb from the length-and-threequarters runner-up Ptit Zig.
Ptit Zig has never been better than a Grade-2 chaser, and had been lucky to start his season by beating an under-par Clarcam at Down R oyal . Vautour had thrashed Ptit Zig 18 lengths and more at Cheltenham and he was 20lb better than Clarcam 13 months ago.
Al Ferof, another stuck at the Grade-2 level and twice the nearly horse – placed without winning – in this King George. He’s now aged 10.
VERDICT: Strong improvers in the race – Don Cossack, Vautour and Smad Place – lead me to lay Silvinicao Conti in his treble bid. He’s nine now and so is Cue Card, who beat him on the last day but has three times seen his rear at the finish and was beaten a total of 41 lengths by Don Cossack in two April races.
Like Cue Card, Smad Place is back to his best but the horses he beat at Kempton and Newbury were Fingal Bay (not won a chase since 2012), Kings Lad (won only novice events), Theatre Guide (won only a four-horse class 2 in 10 tries) and First Lieutenant (15 defeats since April 2013 and now 10). Smad Place is another lay.
Vautour has been specially prepared for this but, in my mind, Don Cossack is the complete steeplechaser and, on form, without the Mullins factor, and the recent memory of Cue Card’s revival, would be a short-priced favourite.
ORDER IN: 1 Don Cossack, 2 Cue Card, 3 Vautour.
LEGEND LOOKS ONE TO FOLLOW
12.50 Kempton The first three races – a novice hurdle and two novice chases – make the opening shots on King George day guesswork for the punter, not much hope of accuracy from the betting oche, certainly not to start with a double. But Dan Skelton is well placed to dojust that, with Meet The Legend and Bekkensfirth.
Nicky Henderson has steered clear of soft ground with his hat-trick hurdler Altior, who improved from beating a 135 horse at Ascot to establishing a 147 official rating after scoring impressively at Cheltenham (holds Simon Squirrel).
That’s 7lb clear of anything else English in this opener, but the best trainer in Ireland – probably the best on these islands – is in opposition, and rain was forecast for today.
However, Willie Mullins’ Open Eagle also has question marks against him. Why have we seen the 2014 Doncaster November Handicap winner (for David O’Meara) only twice since? What to make of his hurdles success at Fairyhouse in November, with second and third well beaten since?
Marracudja has stayed on home ground – dual winner at Wincanton this autumn – since he flopped at the highest level a year or so ago, and his future is over fences.
My fancy is the very powerfully bred Meet The Legend, first-time hooded (8.8 on BETDAQ as I write), who has that ‘could be anything’ look on his hurdles debut. The ground should bring out his stamina; whatever happens, he is one to follow over further.
ANOTHER SKELTON BET BEKKENS
1.25 Kempton Nicky Henderson was winner of this four years out of six (2006-12), and Full Shift is expected to do better over this extra half-mile than when last of eight finishers on his chasing debut at Newbury in November. Since he was beaten favourite that day, the Stewards had Henderson in for a chat (‘my horse was never traveling’).
At a tasty 5.9 on BETDAQ this morning, Bekkensfirth, on the other hand, switched from hurdles to chases by winning 13 lengths and 14 at Leicester, and Antony trotted up on his fencing debut at Sandown.
Buckhorn Timothy, from Colin Tizzard’s stable of the moment (Thistlecrack, Cue Card) beat a small field easily in November before attempting a trip too far at Chepstow. Germany Calling and Rock N Rhythm drop back to novice company.
Of the chasing newcomers, Unique De Cotte, runner-up in the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham, has the DNA for the job. West Wizard, winner of a BETDAQ-sponsored hurdle here at Kempton in May over today’s trip, has moved to Nigel Twiston-Davies for his fencing career.
1.40 Wincanton Alcala is well handicapped but has never won on soft ground, and the stable remains hit and (mainly) miss.
Buywise (two out of two over hurdles in the last 14 months) and If In Doubt (second in the Lanzarote last year) have been thereabouts in Graded chases, If In Doubt fifth in the RSA, Buywise runner-up in the PP Gold Cup.
Both rated lower over hurdles than fences, they will surely have too much class for this field: I took 4.4 Buywise and 6.2 If In Doubt.
2.00 Kempton (Kauto Star Novices’ Chase) This is the only Pricewise race today, other than the King George. He is, of course, following the advertised odds in the Racing Post. In plain English, the bookies reckon this is a punters’ trap and are happy to publicise the prices.
The step up in trip should suit As De Mee, but the more so Bally Beaufort, whose dam is a half-sister to Grand National winner Comply Or Die, and Native River is described by trainer Tizzard as ‘an out-and-out stayer.’
The handicapper says that Native River and Southfield Royale are the best pair in the race, rated 153 and 147, but it’s early days, and a cracking tactical contest this afternoon.
It is my guess that Bally Beaufort will play catch-me. Tea For Two is inexperienced and Native River is the one to come off a good gallop. Southfield Royale is still a big baby and is the one I expect to take out of the race for the future.
2.10 Market Rasen (Lincolnshire National) Not A Bother boy has landed a hat-trick without any bother, showing a deal of stamina. His stable is on a high, Sue Smith winning the Ascot Silver Cup last weekend with Wakanda.
Like Wakana, Not A Bother Boy never knows when he is beaten, such courage ideal for that deceptive long run for home at Market Rasen. He was offered at 3.45 in the BETDAQ ortange at the time of writing.
OLD GUARD DEFENDS BETDAQ 36.0
2.35 Kempton (Christmas Hurdle) Well, what do you know? Old Guard, our BETDAQ win-100 (at 36.0) ante-post bet for the Champion Hurdle, is laying it down to the champion already!
We expected Old Guard to take the Wincanton Kingwell route to Cheltenham, but we’ve already had our betting money back from his International Hurdle triumph at an amazing 7-1, and could land anopther coup today with 10.0 offers in the BETDAQ orange this morning.
Old Guard seems to be the one big name at Ditcheat to have dodged the stable doldrums and is full sail for Cheltenham, progressing race by race with a hat-trick.
That 36.0 will look massive, and we’ll be in trade-off heaven, if he can today turn over – or even give a fright to – current champion Faugheen and the most famous of nearly horses, The New One.
Third and fifth in the championship separates six in a row by The New One, who won at Cheltenham on his reappearance at Kempton in October but is deserted by Sam Twiston-Davies.
And Old Guard is already only 5lb behind him though both have a mountain to climb to reach 171-rated Faugheen, if he can reproduce his Champion Hurdle form of last March.
After 11 successive victories, his first run back seemed a formality, but he was beaten in the Morgiana at Punchestown by Nichols Canyon, who had been champion novice on that course in May.
The handicapper agreed with most onlookers that Faugheen was short of his best but dipped him 3lb in the ratings and raised Nichols Canyon 5lb, as if to say there’s more to it than just that.
SUGAR BARON IS BACK TO STAY
3.45 Kempton Stick with young improvers here: only one winner in the decade has been over the age of six, and four-year-olds are going for a hat-trick.
Chris Down (Max Forte) and Kevin Frost (Swynmor) have very poor hurdles strike-rates, which leaves the race to be decided among Bells ‘N’ Banjos, Matorico, Sugar Baron, Keltus, Flying Angel, Simply A Legend and Baron Alco.
Bells ‘N’ Banjos is up a stone for stopping class-4 horses in slow time on his reappearance: beat nothing well as they say, but then nothing beat him.
Keltus has kept good company but won only a minor race more than two years ago. Matorico is Flat-bred and looks a two-miler, whereas Sugar Baron is related to a Stayers’ Hurdle winner, and Flying Angel will also appreictae the step up in trip.
Simply A Legend showed at Sandown that he gets the trip all right but was in receipt of 21lb from the runner-up and 24lb from the third.
Front-runner Baron Alco, raised in the handicap for back-to-back success in the autumn, is still below the mark he was set when down the field in the Fred Winter last March. I took 5.9 on BETDAQ about Sugar Baron.
BETDAQ TIPS (staked to win 30 points)
BET 12pts win (nap) NOT A BOTHER BOY (2.10 Market Rasen)
BET 3.5pts win MEET THE LEGEND (12.50 Kempton)
BET 4pts win BEKKENSFIRTH (1.25 Kempton)
BET 9pts win BUYWISE and 5.8pts win IF IN DOUBT (1.40 Wincanton)
BET 2.5pts win and place BALLY BEAUFORT, and 2.5pts win (stakes saver) NATIVE RIVER (2.00 Kempton)
BET 3pts win OLD GUARD (2.35 Kempton)
BET 12pts win DON COSSACK (3.10 Kempton)
BET 6pts win SUGAR BARON (3.45 Kempton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 3pt win doubles and 1pt win treble Not A Bother Boy (2.10 Market Rasen), Don Cossack (3.10 Kempton) and Sugar Baron (3.45 Kempton)
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