DAQMAN’S CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL STATS: Daqman presents his day by day, race by race stats clues for the Cheltenham Festival.
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TUESDAY
LAYS LOGIC IN DAY-1 STRIKES
CHELTENHAM A WEEK TODAY: Daqman’s stats-and-facts survey of every race every day, on the day, for next week’s Cheltenham Festival.
LAYS LOGIC: Favourites have been defeated nine years out of 10 in the 5.30 NH Challenge Cup and 12 times out of 13 in the 4.50 Boodles Juvenile Hurdle, which in the last decade has had winners at 10-1, 18-1, 25-1, 33-1 (three times) and 80-1.
⭕ 1.30 Cheltenham, Tuesday, March 12 (Supreme Novices Hurdle) Only two outright favourites have won in 14 seasons but only one winner has been bigger than 9-1 SP since 2013. Winning ages: 5 and 6 are 13/14. Ratings (last nine years): 155, 155, 144, 150, 154, 153, 153, 148, 150.
Willie Mullins has won this seven times among 14 Irish winners out of the last 23 (16 had raced in bumpers); 23 of the last 25 winners had won the last day; 11 of the last 14 had won a Graded contest.
LAYS LOGIC: Losing favourites include Facile Vega (2023) 2nd at 9-4; Min (2016) 2nd 15-8; Getabird (2018) 11th 7-4 and Asterion Forlonge (2010) 4th 9-4.
⭕ 2.10 Cheltenham (Arkle Challenge Trophy) SP: Nine favourites (seven odds-on) have won in the last 13 seasons. Winning ages: 6 and 7 (11 out of 12). Ratings: 166, 161, 170, 162, 151, 144, 164, 159, 162.
Nicky Henderson has won four of the last 12; Willie Mullins is five from nine. Some 14 out of 16 Arkle heroes had won or been placed over at least 19 furlongs.
Ten out of 13 had between three and five (completed) chase races, always in the first two.
⭕ 2.50 Cheltenham (Ultima Handicap Chase) Ages 7 and 8: eight out of 13. Ratings: 146, 148, 155, 142, 151, 139, 143, 140, 146.
Eleven winners of the last 13 had run at a previous Cheltenham festival; 11 out of 13 had won over at least 3m.
⭕ 3.30 Cheltenham (Champion Hurdle) Nine winning favourites since 2010. Ages 6 and 7 won 10 out of 14.
Ratings: 169, 162, 157, 169, 162, 159, 161, 165, 173. Trainers: Nicky Henderson 6, Willie Mullins 4 in the last 14 years; 12 winners out of the 14 had previously won a Grade-1 hurdle.
⭕ 4.10 Cheltenham (Mares’ Hurdle) Seven SP favourites scored out of 13. Ages: no winners older than 7 unless a previous winner of the race.
Ratings: 150, 154, 153, 147, 142, 158, 148, 140, 159. Trainers: Willie Mullins 9 out of 15; Henry De Bromhead currently two out of four.
⭕ 4.50 Cheltenham (Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle) Only one winning favourite in 13 years with most winners at enormous prices: 80-1, 40-1, 33-1 (three times) and 25-1 (twice), 18-1 and that’s only since 2012.
Ratings: 131, 133, 134, 129, 139, 138, 125, 137, 125 with winning weights from 10st 6lb to 11st 9lb. Trainers: Gordon Elliottt (3), Paul Nicholls (3).
LAYS LOGIC: 12 losing favourites sound good but recent favourites have started at up to 15-2, and you need strong nerves even with the short shots: for instance, Gaelic Warrior was beaten a short-head at 13-8 a year ago.
⭕ 5.30 Cheltenham (NH Challenge Cup) In the four years 2015 to 2018, this 4m amateurs’ chase produced a Grand National winner, second and third in Tiger Roll, Cause Of Causes and Rathvinden. But since 2020 the race has been reduced to 3m 6f.
Three SP favourites won (2011-13) but only one in the last 10 years. Ages: 7 and 8 are nine out of 13. Eleven out of 14 had won over at least 3m.
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WEDNESDAY
WINNING STATS NEXT WEDNESDAY
FESTIVAL COUNTDOWN: Here’s Daqman’s stats-and-facts survey for next Wednesday at Cheltenham, with ratings, trainers, form, age, weight and favourites.
LAYS LOGIC: There’s potential to lay favourites of 9-2 or shorter in the 3.30 and 4.50
⭕ 1.30 Cheltenham, Wednesday, March 13 (Baring Bingham ex-Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle) Four favourites up out of six, three of them odds on; and only one winner’s SP in double figures since 2012. Ages: Just two horses older than six have won since 1974.
Ratings (last eight years): 146, 155, 147, 155, 147, 156, 150, 151 148. Trainers; Irish nine out of 10, including Willie Mullins (4).
The last 14 winners started out in Irish Points or in bumpers; 11 had won over at least 2m 4f and taken a Graded hurdle.
⭕ 2.10 Cheltenham (Brown Advisory Novices Chase) Five favourites up out of the last nine; plus two at 4-1 SP in that time.
Ages: 14 out of the last 17 were aged 7; and 14 out of the last 16 had won a Graded race; 11 had already won at Cheltenham.
Ratings: 156, 150, 154, 158, 155, 153, 164, 159, 153. Trainers: Nicky Henderson (3); five Irish winners in 11 years.
⭕ 2.50 Cheltenham (Coral Cup) 19 of the last 20 favourites have been beaten, with 12 of the 15 most recent winners at double-figure odds up to 20-1, 28-1, 33-1 and 50-1 in the last six seasons.
Just four in 23 years have won when above the age of seven, and 12 of the last 14 had raced over hurdles no more than 10 times, 11 out of the last 14 at 2m 2f or further.
Ratings: 139, 149, 148, 143, 151, 140, 138, 152, 141. Trainers: Nicky Henderson (4), Ireland (5) in last 11 years. Weights: 10st 12lb to 11st 5lb have won six of the last eight.
LAYS LOGIC: Losing favourites’ odds off-putting; 9-2 last year and recent best before that Tombstone (2017) at 7-2. But you may still feel that those are good odds among 19 losers!
⭕ 3.30 Cheltenham (Champion Chase) Four favourites have won in the last 10 years; only one winner of double-figure SP. Ages: all between 7 and 10.
Trainers: Nicky Henderson (5 out of 11), Henry De Bromhead (3), Paul Nicholls (2), Willie Mullins just the one, last year. Ratings: 171, 170, 159, 170, 175, 165, 156, 175.
Some 18 out of 20 winners had scored at least five times over fences and 17 ran at Cheltenham before; 11 of the last 13 had won a Grade 1. Irish or French bred took the prize in 14 out of 20 years.
LAYS LOGIC: Five out of seven strikes with favourites! Shishkin (2021), p/u 5-6 fav; Un De Sceaux (2016) 2nd 4-6; Douvan (2017) 7th 2-9; Altior WON 1-1 fav (2018); Altior WON 4-11 fav (2019); Defi Du Seuil 4th 2-5 fav, Chacun Pour Soi 3rd 8-13 fav.
⭕ 4.10 Cheltenham (Cross-Country) In the last 10 years has produced winner (twice), second and third (third) in the Grand National.
Favourites: three out of 11 but outsiders at 14-1, 16-1 and 25-1. Ages: between 8, 9 10 won 10 out of 11.
Horses aged 12+ have failed in 11 years out of 14.
Ratings: 134, 148, 142, 150, 159, 152, 166, 160. Trainers: Gordon Elliott (5), Enda Bolger (3).
⭕ 4.50 Cheltenham (Grand Annual Challenge Cup) Only two favourites have won in 11 years and most winners have been enormous prices: 66-1, 40-1, 28-1 (twice), 20- and 16-1 (twice). Ages: 7, 8, 9 (10 out of 13)
Ratings: 143, 140, 147, 150, 139, 147, 152, 136. Trainers: Paul Nicholls (2). Eight of the last 10 winners had not scored over fences that season.
LAYS: Rock The World (2016) 3rd 9-2 fav; Le Prezien (2017) 8th 7-2 fav; Magic Saint (2019) 10th 9-2 fav; Chosen Mate (2020) WON 7-2 fav, Embittered (2021) 9-2 fav fell; Andy Dufresne (2022) 2nd 10-3 fav. Note that Rock The World and Le Prezien both won the following year.
⭕ 5.30 Cheltenham (Champion Bumper) SP: Three favourites have won in eight seasons and the trend is away from a run of big prices to short SPs, with six of the eight in single figures.
The double-figure winners (11-1 and 25-1) are both down to Willie Mullins, who also won 10 years ago at 25-1.
Every winner had scored last time out: 13-13. Ages 5 and 6 have won the last 12.
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THURSDAY
STAYERS MUST KNOW THE COURSE
CHELTENHAM COUNTDOWN: NEXT THURSDAY
LAYS LOGIC: Backing previous course runners is essential in the Stayers Hurdle (3.30).
Hot favourites in that race and in the 4.50 Mares Novice Hurdle are the right price to lay on the fourth day of next week’s Cheltenham Festival; check the markets against the stats percentages.
⭕ 1.30 Cheltenham, Thursday, March 14 (Turners Novices’ Chase) Seven of the last nine winners were 6-4 to 4-1 at SP. Age 7 is 7 out of 10
Ratings: 154, 152, 155, 144, 151, 157, 151, 161, 152. Irish stables have won six out of nine: Willie Mullins (3).
You need a previous festival runner over hurdles (13/13) who is a distance winner plus (13/13)) and, for preference, has won a Graded chase or hurdle (11/13).
⭕ 2.10 Cheltenham (Pertemps Hurdle Final) Two favourites have won in 12 years; seven double-figure SPs.
Winner had six or more runs over hurdles (12/14) and previous success 2m 4f or 2m 6f+ (11/14)
Ratings: 138, 139, 146, 139, 145, 152. 134, 141, 142.
LAY: Favourites prices usually too big to lay.
⭕ 2.50 Cheltenham (Ryanair Chase) Four favourites up out of eight. Ages 7 and 8 (9-12). Course form essential: 15 out of 17 had previously won at Cheltenham or been placed in Grade 1 there.
Some 15 out of 17 had won over at least 20 furlongs; 14/17 had at least four chase wins, one or more at Graded level.
Ratings: 161, 176, 171, 166, 169, 170, 162, 174, 163.
⭕ 3.30 Cheltenham (Stayers Hurdle) Only two out of 10 to the favourite. Gavin Cromwell is two out of three at 12-1 and 4-1 following Willie Mullins (2) at 10-1 and 12-1. Ages: 7yo 6-9 until 11yo won last year at 33-1.
Some 15 of the last 16 winners all had at least one previous run at Cheltenham, 12 of them as winners; 16 out of 17 had won a Graded race. Ratings: 158, 168, 161, 153, 168, 146, 160, 164, 152.
LAYS LOGIC: There’s always a hot favourite for this, with seven from nine beaten since 2016, as follows: 5th 11-4, WON evens, 3rd 5-6, 5th 9-4, WON 11-8, 7th 4-6, 3rd 9-4, 5th 11-4, 3rd 9-4 last year.
⭕ 4.10 Cheltenham (Plate) Favourites: three out of four between 2018 and 2021 are a cluster isolated among winners before that from 12-1 to 50-1 and in the last two years at 20-1 and 22-1. Winner had previously scored from 2m 3f to 2m 5f (14/14).
Ages: 6 to 9 eight in a row until 11 and 10 in last two years; weights 11st 4lb or less (13/13).
Ratings: 140, 142, 145, 147, 141, 149, 140, 145, 143.
⭕ 4.50 Cheltenham (Mares’ Novices Hurdle) Favourites: 3-8 Ages: four 5-year-olds, four 6. Ratings: 145, 147, 144, 138 notional, 141, 136, 135, 135 with 7-8 placed in Grade 1 or 2. Trainers: W Mullins (5).
LAYS LOGIC: Willie Mullins won with three straight favourites, but the last five market leaders have crashed: Epatante (2019) 9th 15-8, Minella Melody (2020) 18th 11-4; Royal Kahala (2021) 9th 9-2; Dinoblue 11-8 9th (2022) and Luccia (2023) 4th 6-4..
⭕ 5.30 Cheltenham, (Kim Muir Challenge Cup) One favourite has won in the last 11 years, and 9/11 SPs range from 6-1 to 40-1 (twice).
Ages: 7 and 8 (10-11). Weight: 11st 4lb to 11st 9lb (6/9). Ratings: 137, 142, 137, 138, 143, 141, 142, 134, 131. Ran at the festival before (9/14).
LAYS LOGIC: Favourites finished 4-1 UR (2016); 5-1 UR (2017), 4-1 2nd (2018), 3-1 8th (2019), 5-1 jt favs 7th and 11th (2020), 9-2 jt favs 2nd and PU in 2022; 7-2 fav 2nd last year.
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FRIDAY
FESTIVAL FACTS: GOLD CUP DAY
LAYS LOGIC! Cheltenham next Friday is lays day; nice work if you have a BETDAQ account and some short prices. Here is your starter: favourites have drawn a blank in the 2.50 (for 10 consecutive years) and the 5.30 (11 years). All three favourites for the new Mares Chase (4.50) have been beaten by other short-priced runners.
⭕ 1.30 Cheltenham, Friday March 15 (Triumph Hurdle) Four-year-olds only. Favourites five out of nine, but outsiders at 10-1, 12-1 and 20-1 in the decade.
Winners ratings: 155, 142, 155, 140, 141 notional, 120 notional, 147, 146, 142. Trainers: Nicky Henderson (3) and Willie Mullins (3).
⭕ 2.10 Cheltenham (County Hurdle) Favourites: two out of four but the two others were both 33-1!
Age: 5 and 6 (10/14). Weight: no more than 11st 1lb (10/13). Ratings: 138, 138, 158, 139, 146, 137, 129, 141, 134. Trainers: Dan Skelton (4/8) one favourite but includes 12-1 and 33-1; Willie Mullins (4/9), two of them favourite but includes 20-1 and 25-1.
⭕ 2.50 Cheltenham (Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle) No winning favourite in 10 years, with nine winners double-figure SPs of 11-1, 14-1 (twice), 16-1 (twice), 18-1 (twice), 33-1 (twice) and 50-1.
Age 6 and 7 (12 out of 14). Some 12 out of 16 had won at around 3m.
LAYS LOGIC: Favourites finished: 7-2 fav PU (2016), 9-4 fav 5th, 11-4 fav 4th; 4-1 fav 2nd; 4-1 fav 4th; 7-2 fav 4th; 9-4 fav pulled up; ran out 9-4 fav (2023).
⭕ 3.30 Cheltenham (Gold Cup) Three of the last four favourites have won in the decade and 10/12 have been 9-1 or shorter at SP. Eight of the last nine winners had won two of their last three races, still standing.
Age, 7, 8 and 9 (13/14). Ratings: 152, 166, 175, 167, 166, 164, 175, 164, 174, 173.
Trainers: Willie Mullins (3), Henry de Bromhead (2), Nicky Henderson (2), Gordon Elliott (1), Jessica Harrington (1)
The last 17 winners had already won Graded races (Grade-1 13 times); 17 out of 17 had raced at Cheltenham before; 15 out of 16 had won at 3m or further, and 17 out of 17 had won at least two chases.
⭕ 4.10 Cheltenham (Challenge Cup hunters’ chase) Three favourites have won in the last eight seasons but others include 66-1 (twice) and 25-1. Last nine winners all aged 10 or 11.
Winning trainers: Paul Nicholls (2), Enda Bolger (2). Won over at least 3m (11/13).
⭕ 4.50 Cheltenham (Mares’ Chase) New race in 2021: two out of three for Willie Mullins, both eight-year-olds; both 9-4 SP but not favourite. Ratings 150, 155, 151.
LAYS LOGIC: All three favourites were beaten (2-1, 6-5 and 13-8) all trained Willie Mullins! The 2021 beaten favourite won the race the following year.
⭕ 5.30 Cheltenham (Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle) Favourites: all beaten in the last 11 years. Ages: 5 and 6 (12 out of 14); 7yo 2. Weight: 11st 3lb and above (10/11)
Ratings: 135, 139, 138, 144, 145, 145, 142, 137, 138. Trainers: W Mullins (5), P. Nicholls (2), Joseph O’Brien (2).
LAYS LOGIC: Favourites in last eight seasons finished: 9-4 fav 7th (2016), 9-2 fav 8th; 13-2 fav 12th; 7-2 fav 2nd; 4-1 fav 12th; 4-1 fav 10th; 7-2 fav brought down; 5-1 jt favs 5th and 15th (2023)
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