ABC GUIDE TO THE 1,000 GUINEAS: After yesterday’s ABC guide on the 2,000 Guineas threw up the Aidan O’Brien favourite, Ballydoyle does well again as Daqman ticks the boxes for Sunday’s 1,000 Guineas.
FRIDAY TRIO: Three bets from DAQMAN on Friday ahead of the Classic weekend. His nap runs at Lingfield and is currently second favourite on BETDAQ.
1,000 GUINEAS: 14 ARE LEFT IN
The Guineas fillies are a work in progress. This is a very early title bout for them and two winners in the decade went down to the start with only 85 and 99 ratings whereas Minding was already sky high on 120.
Ballydoyle blooms with Rhododendron (on 116) and Hydrangea (111). Then it’s Queen Kindly (112) and Intricately (111) in front of John Gosden’s Daban (108).
In the ABC guide, Hydrangea heads Rhododendron purely on alphabetical order; otherwise they both tick all the boxes for quality, experience and stamina.
Their stablemate, Winter, was the punt of the week, seen to have been at a high-draw disadvantage when runner-up to Hydrangea at Leopardstown.
3.35 (Newmarket, Sunday) 1,000 Guineas
A Winner rated 106+ (80%, some notional)
B Winner of a Group race (86%)
C Winner at 7f+ as a 2yo (80%)
D Raced at least twice as a 2yo (86%)
E Winner or placed last time out (100%)
F Winner trained Aidan O’Brien (7 wins)
X Sire’s progeny’s average winning trip: 7.9f min (80%)
ABCDEFX Hydrangea
Lines through this Galileo filly suggest that four of the leading fancies are within a pound or two of each other.
After running Rhododendron to a head at The Curragh, she split Intricately and Rhododendron in the Moyglare, and only just headed the badly-drawn Winter in the Leopardstown 1,000 Guineas Trial in April.
ABCDEFX Rhododendron
Another Ballydoyle beauty. And another Galileo, but out of Halfway To Heaven (Irish 1,000, Sun Chariot and Nasssau Stakes winner). See Hydrangea and Intricately.
ABCDX Intricately
Tough type out of a half-sister to Rock of Gibraltar. After running third to Rhododendron, beat Hydrangea in the Moyglare but only fourth behind that one in the Leopardstown 1,000 Guineas Trial last month, not punished when her chance had gone.
ABCE Daban
Sire’s progeny average is 7f but she was eased close home to win the Nell Gwyn impressively from Unforgetable Filly and Poet’s Vanity, with Kilmah sixth.
ABDEX Fair Eva
A Frankel filly who has a ‘wonderful action’ (quote unquote trainer Roger Charlton). Impressive in the Princess Margaret (slammed Kilmah) and third to Queen Kindly in the Lowther Stakes. Guineas favourite until beaten in the Rockfel against modest opposition .
ABDX Queen Kindly
Another Frankel filly related to Dylan Thomas on the dam’s side. Won the Lowther Stakes (Fair Eva third), but only fifth in the Fred Darling, running freely though Jamie Spencer tried to restrain her to get the trip.
ACDEFX Winter
Galileo filly whose dam was a champion sprinter, but kept on well, running Hydrangea to a head from an outside draw in the Leopardstown 1,000 Trial.
BCDEX Poet’s Vanity
Sizeable filly with scope last year, winning the Oh So Sharp Stakes. Unforgetable Filly, who was third that day, finished second when Vanity was third behind Daban in the Nell Gwyn Stakes last month. She ran fresh with her stable out of form, and could improve past the front two.
BCD Kilmah
Has disappointed before and after success at Goodwood, being beaten by Fair Eva and Daban. Since Goodwood is her trainer’s number-one venue, she is in my notebook for the Glorious meeting.
CDE Unforgetable
Filly Speed pedigree, sent out on a quick learning curve with three races in 28 days last autumn, placed behind Urban Fox then behind Poet’s Vanity, but looked much stronger and reversed placings with Vanity, second and third to Daban in the Nell Gwyn. Both expected to come on for that.
CDE Urban Fox
Out of a daughter of Nashwan, always in the mix in the autumn, beating Unforgetable Filly at Newmarket but well behind Rhododendron in the Fillies Mile and runner-up to a speedy sort on her reappearance in the Fred Darling.
Had a setback six weeks before the Fred Darling and could come on a lot for the race. This 10,000-guinea yearling looks more of a bargain than ever.
CEX Talaayeb
Dam related to a Guineas winner and line goes back to Nashwan. Looked the type to do well, when easily accounting for big field at Newmarket in September, but just one class-4 win from the next three home.
C Ce La Vie
Won a Catterick maiden as a juvenile. Always towards the rear in the Park Express Stakes (Naas 1m soft in March)
– – – Dream Start
Not a dream start for this one, 13th of 14 in the Wood Ditton, albeit a race usually packed with future winners.
* 2,000 GUINEAS: Due to technical difficulties, the 2,000 Guineas ABC guide was released yesterday before the declarations. The key and analysis remain pertinent to the revised card. The one-point stake on a non-runner is lost.
ECHO ROAR TO SILENCE DOUBTERS
2.20 Chepstow Fast ground at Chepstow this afternoon and the Richard Hannon trained Prerogative can finally lose his maiden tag at the 11th attempt.
A long term maiden rarely catches DAQMAN’s eye but on closer examination Prerogative has the form to win what looks quite a weak contest.
Hannon won this race last year and Prerogative steps up in trip today which I think could be the key to a first success. Often with maidens you are looking for something different otherwise it can be a case of trying the same thing and getting the same result. He was certainly staying on well over a mile at Salisbury on his last turf start to suggest the extra trip will help and he’s handled faster going well too on previous starts.
Laraaib is an interesting newcomer but main danger may come from Pondering who steps back in trip after a close-up third over 1m 4f at Wolverhampton last time out.
2.40 Lingfield Sir Michael Stoute and Roger Charlton have an early season skirmish at Lingfield where their two runners stand out in the seven furlong maiden.
Sir Michael Stoute’s Time’s Arrow was beaten by a Charlton trained runner, Casimiro, over course and distance last month and that winner looked quite smart. It was a good effort though from Time’s Arrow who improved significantly for his debut at Chelmsford.
Today’s main rival Silent Echo is also a likely big improver but will need to be. His pedigree is impeccable and he was sent off short in the market for his Windsor debut but didn’t show a great deal. He has since been gelded and with the Charlton stable in such good form it would come as no surprise to see a different performance today and he is preferred at around 3.0 compared to 2.46 Time’s Arrow in the early BETDAQ market. Time’s Arrow may again have to play second fiddle to a Charlton-trained runner.
5.00 Musselburgh Plenty of out of form types here and it could leave the door open for Cosmic Ray who remains in great form. He scraped home to win at Nottingham two starts ago and ran another good race off today’s mark (3lb higher than Nottingham) to finish a close fourth at Haydock last in a race that looked more competitive than this heat.
DAQMAN’S BETS (Staked to win 20 points)
BET 5pts win PREROGATIVE (2.20 Chepstow_
BET 10pts (nap) win SILENT ECHO (2.40 Lingfield)
BET 9.2pts win COSMIC RAY (5.00 Musselburgh)
