15-2 WINNER! BUT NEVER ENOUGH FOR DAQMAN: Navajo Chief (WON 15-2) was a super scalp for Daqman yesterday but his cat took a kicking after dismal York results (‘No animals have been hurt in the making of this column’, says Daqman, ‘but York is very hard again today.’)
12.0 BETDAQ VALUE IN THE YORKSHIRE CUP: It’s Yorkshire Cup day today and Daqman and Pricewise clash (current score 30-9 on the Flat) in the 2.15 and 3.15 races on the Knavesmire.
‘TIGER’ BRIGHT FOR YORKSHIRE CUP
Success doesn’t mean I can break my own rules. But I did. I read the papers (big mistake). Listened to the hype (fatal). Listened when a trainer named his best for the York meeting – it was second – then the next day pedestal another one (unplaced), and finally greet a winner (not one of his big two) in a state of shock!
Racing is like life really: the same lessons repeat themselves. We never learn in life. But we must learn in racing if we are to win money: be our own man.
It’s just sometimes hard to accept that we must ‘know’ more than the trainer and jockey and ignore all the BS in the Press and on telly. Hardest of all to accept: you must only back prices, not horses.
Not a single favourite scored yesterday, and only one (outright) over the two days on the Knavesmire so far. So ‘connections’ – owners and trainers – have not known very much, have they or, to give them the benefit of the doubt, have been missing strike on changeable ground. To think I’ve been listening to them (where’s that moggy!)
The one constant? Stunning offers on BETDAQ, with around 104% on three races in the morning. Real value offers in the orange, while the bookies’ Total SP hit 128% twice again yesterday.
With the help of good value, just the odd decent winner or judicious lay can get us out of the worst of the doo-doo. Even the bad times are good.
1.45 York Having suitably beaten myself up, I take a paean of praise from my forecasting the draw switch from high to low success yesterday, with sprint wins for stalls 4, 2, 1 in three races. But this opener is level weights for two-year-old fillies and their ability is latent.
Trainers Appleby, Wilson, Barron, Hannon and Fahey – all with recent 2yo winners – all have chances, but Hannon is the one with juveniles galore in his yard and Tiggy Wiggy is aimed at the Queen Mary.
Appleberry (Appleby) beat losers, sent to Catterick; Tiggy Wiggy (Hannon) and Exentricity (Channon) beat a previous winner when they were 1-2 at Salisbury on soft.
Sarista (Barron) had Lazy Days In Louie (Wilson) behind at Redcar before winning at Ripon. Zuhoor Baynoona (Fahey) won at Yarmouth.
Don’t Tell Annie is Tim Easterby’s only juvenile winner from 20 starters in 2014 and the N. Yorkshire stable is on a losing run of 33.
VERDICT: Jockeys in form are Graham Lee on Magic Florence – boing! said Zebedee – and Kieren Fallon on War Paint.
But the main danger to Tiggy Wiggy may be Patience Alexander (5.6 on BETDAQ) this morning. Bolted up at Wolver and aims for the Super Sprint.
2.00 Newbury (Swettenham Stud Fillies’ Trial) More fillies! They are hardest to predict. This has thrown up one or two recent Oaks places and a Nassau winner.
John Gosden is 131 in it in the last three seasons, but his Likelihood of winning this was 14.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
The entries suggest that connections have also been looking only at the second-tier races for Grace And Favour and Lamar and Volume’s yard is making a slow start to the season, missing strike badly in the last two weeks with 10 in the frame but only one winner.
Front-running Sound Reflection yielded to maidens in the Pretty Polly but collateral form from Inchila’s CD win a month ago puts her five lengths off the Musidora winner, though she’s not with a stable you can have confidence in.
Lahinch Classics is David Wachman’s first runner in England this year. He had a good strike rate with juvenile raiders in 2011 but nine two-year-old runners since have all failed, so not the special journey some elements of the Press suggest.
VERDICT: The huge potential clearly lies with Hadaatha, a daughter of Sea The Stars, for Roger Varian, who made no mistake with Ambivalent in the Middleton Stakes yesterday.
2.15 York Five-year-olds have a seven-out-of eight sequence in this. Only Sir Michael Stoute has recently been able to win with a high-weighted four-year-old. He saddles another today: Arab Spring, entered in the Hardwicke Stakes.
The stable form is patchy. Apart from two winners in the Pattern, Stoutie has scored just once outside maiden company with 25 starters, and Arab Spring beat only recent class 3 and 4 winners at Doncaster but is raised 11lb.
Amralah brings to the table a single success in a slowly-run race with a small field since he broke his maiden; local horse, Itlaaq, is eight now and has just had his once-a-year win.
Beware of another Easterby – Tim not Michael –with Ardlui, blinkered first time for this. His form well backed is 1331321301. Bigger than 7-1 and it’s 4002000. Not wanted this morning but keep an eye out.
Duke Of Clarence runs 5lb above his last winning mark but could improve on his second outing since gelded. The bridesmaid Kashmir Peak is six times placed without winning in eight outings but is another to try the hood, so successful in recent months.
Chancery, a CD winner in August off a 6lb lower mark, comes from a stable with success in a handicap on the Knavesmire already this May meeting.
VERDICT: I think Richard Fahey could improve Duke Of Clarence (18.5 on BETDAQ this morning in a 103% orange) for a trip, now gelded.
He came from Richard Hannon’s and was pitched straight into the Chester Cup, where he ran well. Arab Spring must improve and Chancery also has a high mark.
2.45 York (Yorkshire Cup) After Arab Spring for the Ballymacoll, Sir Michael Stoute has another prepped for today in the last two weeks, Gospel Choir, for Cheveley Park. The bold knight’s reputation is on the line.
But this 14f Yorkshire Cup is not the right hymn-sheet for Gospel Choir, if the entries are any guide – Hardwicke (12f) and Eclipse (10f) – though he’s on the upgrade and all middle-distance doors must be opened for a look-see.
At the other extreme, Royal-Oak and Sagaro winner, Tac De Boistron is dropping back from 2m and 2m 4f. He won at Chester last year over 12f-plus but his every success has been on soft-heavy.
Ahzeemah is a Group 2 winner here at York – the Lonsdale Cup in August – but it’s hard to side with Saeed Bin Suroor after the defeat of True Story and several other favourites. His only winners in the two weeks of Classic trials have been maidens.
James Fanshawe (Seal Of Approval and High Jinx) has also been a let down (Ribbons, Green Monkey) this week. Cubanita was a stone off Tac De Boistron at Chester. Luca Cumani (Khione) is out of form.
VERDICT: It’s one of those races where you must decide if you can risk Tac De Boistron on the ground, risk Gospel Choir at the trip, or chance Ahzeemah’s stable form.
I’ll grab a bit of win-and-place value, which I think resides with Tiger Cliff (goes well fresh). Improved to score over CD in August and made favourite – eighth – for the Cesarewitch. He’s 12.0 on BETDAQ, whereas Ladbrokes fancy him at 9-1.
But, with class and ground advantage over several in the field, Gospel Choir has every chance early mouse at 5.6 to open up those new doors. I hope that’s one of my one-twos: Tiger Cliff and Gospel Choir.
3.15 York Pricewise has dragged me into another fillies’ race, for which the market is a good guide (only one winner above 5-1 in eight seasons).
Lady Lara, the Fred Darling fourth, is probably better than her eighth in the 1,000 Guineas (hampered), though there was no hope for her that day: 40-1.
Qawaasem, beaten a neck by Nell Gwyn third, Majeyda, as a two-year-old, might put her experience to good use. I took 9.4 Lady Lara and 13.5 Qawaasem. But don’t forget to be on a closer in the market, whatever it is!
THE NAP: I’ve swerved Saeed Bin Suroor at the big meetings today but there are things he’s good at: first-time handicaps (23%) and first-time tongue-tie (25%).
Bolingbroke fits those two stats and is sent all the way to Hamilton tonight, one evening ride only for that renaissance man, Kieren Fallon. Looks super value at 6.0 on BETDAQ, as I write.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 4.3pts win PATIENCE ALEXANDER and 1.5pts win (stakes saver) TIGGY WIGGY (1.45 York)
BET 8.4pts win HADAATHA (2.00 Newbury)
BET 1.1pts win and place DUKE OF CLARENCE and 2pts win (stakes saver) ARAB SPRING (2.15 York)
BET 4pts win GOSPEL CHOIR and 1.8pts win and place TIGER CLIFF (2.45 York)
BET 2.3pts win LADY LARA and 1.6pts win QAWAASEM (3.15 York)
BET 4pts win (nap) BOLINGBROKE (7.35 Hamilton)
Daqman is the Betdaq name of a long-time winning tipster, professional gambler and racing writer. He is independent and has no association with this exchange or any bookmaker.
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