CLASSIC CASE FOR BIG OUTSIDERS: Daqman quotes the history of the four main Epsom races, including the Oaks, for a spending spree on outsiders this afternoon:
13.0 SHOT: Epsom 2.35 results: 12-1, 16-1 and 40-1 in the decade. Daqman’s bet today 13.0
14.5 SURPRISE: Epsom 3.10: Only one winning favourite. Daqman finds 14.5 and 21.0 chances.
16.5 BET: Epsom 3.45: One favourite in the decade. Daqman bets at 16.5.
21.0 HIT: Epsom 4.30 The Oaks: 50-1, 33-1 and 20-1 (three times). Daman tries a 21.0 hit today.
POT-OF-GOLD TILT AT THE OAKS: Daqman’s Pot-Of-Gold bet returns in a triple-bonus tilt at the Oaks (21.0), with his current standings:
Naps: 8-17
Lays 21-26
Daqman 34, Pricewise 13 (today: 3.10, 3.45, 4.30 Epsom)
Fortune Cookies +76pts (today: Minding, 4.30 Epsom)
20-1 OAKS QUEEN HAS QUICKENED ON SOFT
4.30 Epsom (Oaks Stakes) Minding would have to be a very tough filly to win today’s Oaks, after bring switched from her Epsom prep to take in another Guineas, sustaining an injury in it and losing a battle for it.
No 1,000 Guineas winner to do the double in 45 years has landed the Oaks after another race in between.
Strictly on ‘the good book’ – or the handicapper’s ratings assessment of it – only Turret Rocks is within 16lb of Minding, but she has a problem with the softish ground.
On breeding, Rocks seems solid. Another daughter of her sire, Fastnet Rock (Qualify), won last year’s Oaks, and the dam’s sire is Galileo.
But, if you believe that the Minding plan has gone astray and that Turret Rocks won’t like the ground (withdrawn from Irish 1,000 because it was soft), you are left, as I said in my ABC guide yesterday (see Daqman Archive), looking for a late improver; maybe even something at 50-1 (last year), 33-1 (in 2008) or 20-1 (three times in between).
Before Qualify, the four previous winners had all had just two or three runs before the Oaks, and it seems to be that sort of year, particularly with five of the nine runners all so lightly raced.
The Lingfield Oaks Trial (Seventh Heaven beats Architecture) didn’t look a true test, and the subsequent odds-on defeat of the maiden Moorside, who split Somehow and Diamonds Pour Moi in the Cheshire Oaks, makes the Chester form suspect, too.
And it reads like Charlie Appleby, who fancied the Ribblesdale for Skiffle, has had his arm twisted by the owners to run in this. She also prefers good ground.
Harlequeen is in the top four on the ratings and I believe she was involved in one of the better form races; she stayed on fourth to So Mi Dar in the Musidora, in my book the potentially easy winner of this Classic today had she been fit to race.
Before the Musidora, So Mi Dar had beaten the colts in the Epsom Derby Trial. The second home, Humphrey Bogart, has since won the Lingfield Derby Trial, and the third, Viren’s Army, won the BETDAQ Dee Stakes from Linguistic.
Despite not settling well, Harlequeen had been a fast finisher, second to Linguistic at the Craven Meeting in April, and was only as far behind So Mi Dar at York as was Viren’s Army in the Derby Trial.
It’s consistent backed-up collateral, but an unusually strong testament because it’s between fillies and colts, which no other form links can lay claim to.
Harlequeen has won on soft ground, with Silvestre De Sousa saying at the time as follows: ‘When I asked her, she quickened up and put the race to bed.’
Now trainer Mick Channon is saying that his filly has been ‘very green’ in this year’s preps but is much more likely to settle off a good pace.
As I say, she is in the top four anyway and, with conditions and the trip in her favour, she looks ‘the one most likely to’, certainly the best place bet at the price.
Harlequeen, 14-1 with one big bookie, is the same odds in an exchange sportsbook but 21.0 on BETDAQ early mouse.
On form and ratings alone, she is around a 9-1 shot in my reckoning, and I’m going to back her, using my triple bonus method, the Pot Of Gold Bet
If she were 9-1, I would need 5.5 point to win 50. I’ll keep that stake at 20-1 and more than double my return. Since I’m betting in a 103% orange, I know I’m already in bonus territory.
DAQMAN’S ORDER-IN: 1 Harlequeen, 2 Minding, 3 Diamonds Pour Moi
STAR WEIGHTED TO ATTACK FROM THE FRONT
2.35 Epsom Dark Red has the CD-winning form, the penchant for softer ground and the beating of the entire field on his hat-trick race at Chester. But outsiders at 12-1, 16-1 and 40-1 have scored in the decade; just two winning favourites.
And what makes it hard to take a short price is that the quirky ones in the race, particularly those slowly away against him in his sequence – What About Carlo and Master Of Finance, who was third last year – could get the breaks this time.
Darshini looks a dark horse but drifted like a lonely dog on a raft, right over my betting weir to 18.5 on BETDAQ this month.
The one thrown in the race is Sennockian Star, a 13.0 BETDAQ offer. I see him likely to kick on in the straight, 10lb lower than last summer and 16lb better with Dark Red on City And Suburban form.
FANCIFUL OUTSIDER TO RUN DOWN AROD
3.10 Epsom (Diomed Stakes) Arod beat the stats and broke the bookies’ hearts last year, first outright favourite to win this since early in the century, and he goes into his double bid today clear in the ratings.
There’s no reason why runner-up Custom Cut should reverse the form, after a good start to the season by Arod in a Listed at Ascot.
But the fourth horse, Decorated Knight, needed the race badly, as he showed when stepping up for his new yard at Goodwood a fortnight ago.
The one who’ll want to oust Knight in this joust is Roger Varian, his former trainer, with Mindurownbusiness, the equal of Sovereign Debt on Lingfield form, and Sovereign Debt finished in front of Decorated Knight last time they met.
David Elsworth is having a huge season and Sea The Flames is the right horse for this race as a game front-runner, who has the assistance of Silvestre De Sousa, well drawn for an early break on the field but 21.0.
Fanciful Angel is huge at 14.5 under Frankie Dettori. This very big horse was quite capable of negotiating similar bends at Lingfield last year and was an improver in Meydan after being gelded.
PERSUN LAID OUT FOR EPSOM REPEAT: 16.5
3.45 Epsom Another race with only one winning favourite in the decade. Spring Offensive and Instant Attraction will make them all go, while Jack’s Revenge and Melvin The Great are known for slow starting.
This should suit the 7.2 BETDAQ bet, Dutch Uncle, who gets further, is consistent and looks sure to be placed. It means that Mick Channon loses Silvestre De Sousa here.
But Luke Morris is an able deputy for Persun (16.5 offers), who has been saved up for this, with the memory in mind of her CD success on today’s ground in September.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points, unless stated)
BET 2.5pts win and place SENNOCKIAN STAR, and (to win 20) 8pts win DARK RED (2.35 Epsom)
BET 2.2pts win and place FANCIFUL ANGEL, 1.5pts win snd place SEA OF FLAMES, and (to win 20) 8pts win AROD (3.10 Epsom)
BET 4.8pts win (nap) DUTCH UNCLE, and 2pts win and place PERSUN (3.45 Epsom)
POT-OF-GOLD (TON-UP) BET 5.5pts (to win 110) and 10pts a place (to win 40) HARLEQUEEN (4.30 Epsom)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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