VALUE FOR MONEY: SPOTLIGHT ON BETDAQ: How do you know you are getting value when you bet? Daqman provodes one answer today, as he reveals the same punter-friendly BETDAQ market continues from Cheltenham through Aintree.
VALUE FOR MONEY: DAQMAN IS PRICE WISE: Daqman leads Pricewise of the Racing Post 2-0 since his 20-1 winner of the Lincoln Handicap as they clash this afternoon on Topham day at Aintree: 1.40, 3.25 and 4.40
POUND WISE PUNTING ON BETDAQ
BETDAQ betting opens windows of opportunity. Not least the offers on outsiders, which means you can have your small bets and family bets at much bigger odds on the Grand National.
If you are betting in bookmakers’ massive overrounds (see below), you cannot afford to fritter the pounds away. It’s vital to watch the percentages.
But, if you are betting on a near-level playing field, man to man across the ether in exchanges that don’t manipulate huge profits against you, you can spend a pound here and there on your savers, fancies and dangers, knowing that they could pay for your main bets, if a ‘shock’ happens.
Checking one list of bookies’ ante-post offers on Oddschecker alongside those on BETDAQ, I found that prices of 33-1 or more were not offered until after 18 shorter shots at the front of the market. On BETDAQ, you were into 33-1 plus after only eight horses!
Remember Cheltenham, when I tabulated BETDAQ morning percentages, race by race, against the resultant SP Total percentages. I found this for the opening day on the Tuesday:
BETDAQ 7 a.m 14 Mar 102 101 105 101 104 104 105
The SP Totals 14 March 122 134 130 119 121 122 135
Well yesterday, on the corresponding opening day at Aintree, I checked out the total percentages in the BETDAQ offers not in the morning but half an hour before the first race.
I think you’ll agree that, morning and afternoon, BETDAQ is the value when you see how the SPs hit punters for 130, 134 and 135% at Cheltenham and 133% in two races at Aintree:
BETDAQ 1.15 pm yesterday 102 102 102 101 104 107 109
SP Totals returned yesterday 109 133 112 111 133 120 126
THE DREAM BET ON JONJO AND J P
1.40 Aintree The two hot-pots won yesterday but only big-hitters could celebrate at 4-11 and 4-9, though my banker to make 50% of stake on Buveur d’Air was justified in early exchanges, ending up at 44% ROI.
There’s just the one odds-on shot today and two cavalry charges in handicaps. Stats may cut them down to manageable sizes.
For starters, six years out of 10, six-year-olds win this. Last year’s 33-1 shock by a nine-year-old came on soft ground, and the winners aged five, seven and eight were also sore thumbs.
Bigmartre, Crystal Lad, Geordie Des Champs, and Rather Be all take a keen hold, like to be leaders or in the van. Yesterday four trackers and two hold-up horses won the obstacle races.
Byron Flyer burst on the scene on better ground at Doncaster in November then, interestingly, had a look-see here at Aintree, finishing close to a previous winner of this opener, Clondaw Kaempfer. Fit from the Flat.
Ignore Crievehill’s run in the County Hurdle and look instead at his staying-on third at Haydock to the narrow Neptune runner-up Neon Wolf.
Dream Berry might have won at Kempton (good) but for being checked on one of the bends. Geordie Des Champs is consistent on goodish ground and a CD winner at Aintree.
Noel Meade had a winner at Limerick yesterday and his Ice Cold Soul tracked the leaders and disposed of a big field at Leopardstown in January.
That was on good ground but he stayed on well over 2m 2f on the same course on heavy to score the year before, and is bred for 2m 4f-6f.
You can’t leave out the Henderson horses (stable won this twice in the last four years), Thomas Campbell and Rather Be, while Hawk High and Cloudy Lad like the sound surface.
VERDICT: All bar two winners in the decade have been double-figure SPs from 10-1 and 50-1. This looks the target for the J P McManus-Jonjo O’Neill runner, Dream Berry (10.5), and Gigginstown make it an old-firm clash with Ice Cold Soul (13.0). The big whisper is down-in the-weights Sky Khan (17.5), as low as 11-1 in places with the bookies.
2.20 Aintree Last year’s Supreme Novices Hurdle produced a stunning 1-2-3 of Altior, Min and Buveur d’Air. How good will be this year’s corresponding finishers, Labaik, Melon and River Wylde?
River Wylde has a favourite’s chance here to set the Supreme standard flying for another year, with the only worry seemingly Mount Mews who has been winning doing handsprings in the North.
2.50 Aintree Nicky Henderson has stolen this, stablemates Might Bite and Whisper, who fought out the finish of the RSA, frightening off the opposition.
MELLING: FOX LEAVES IT LATE
3.25 Aintree (Melling Chase) A Gold Cup winner to be (Don Cossack) and Champion Chasers (Sprinter Sacre, Master Minded) have won this in the last six seasons off marks ranging from 166 to 188.
Fox Norton (166) and last year’s winner of this, Gods Own (165) are on the brink, followed by Sub Lieutenant (162).
This is much more Josses Hill’s wicket and you could argue for his defeat of Tea For Two at Huntingdon. In receipt of 7lb, he had slammed Gods Own eight lengths in February last year.
But the handicapper says that Sub Lieutenant has improved 17lb since being moved to Henry de Bromhead in the autumnn whereas Gods Own’s rating has been flat-lining since this time last year.
There’s absolute nothing between the two on a line through Un de Sceaux. But Sub Lieutenant’s running up to both Sizing John and Un de Sceaux (the Ryanair is the best guide to this) begs for a ‘third time lucky’ this year
The hooded Fox Norton has always raced at 2m. Since April 2013, in fact. So, though he has shown considerable potential for 2m 4f, it’s guesswork and it’s all a bit late in the day, albeit he is the other improver, up 20lb since October.
Going back to those BETDAQ percentages. They total 104% in this as I write which means that, if I take out God’s Own (4.5), I’m betting in an 82% ‘book.’ So why don’t I have both Fox Norton (5.0 offers) and Sub Lieutenant (4.20) on my side.
SEEFOOD A BETDAQ CATCH AT 12.0
4.05 Aintree (Topham Chase) The bottomweights used to win (four out of five 10st 4lb or lower to 2011) but, as with most tight handicaps these days, quality reigns (10st 11lb to 11st 8lb in four of the last five years). I’ll take one at either end of the handicap.
Jonjo O’Neill’s Eastlake spoiled a Nicky Henderson four-timer a year ago, with Third Intention third (15lb lower now and 17lb better in with Eastlake).
But Jonjo puts a tongue-tie first time on his Ultima fifth, Go Conquer, and, while Eastlake and Third Intention are the ones we know can jump the National fences, Eastlake is 11 now and Third Intention’s Tizzard yard has been very quiet for a while.
Seefood (12.0 offers) can jump them. He is miles better off with As De Mee on their Grand Sefton form yet is only a slightly better price at 11.5 on BETDAQ as I write. Richard Johnson booked. O O Seven (24.0) is a big price for a stable that farms the race.
4.40 Aintree The World’s End was an unlucky faller when in at the finish of the Albert Bartlett. The Debece stable has sprung a surprise in this before:13.0
5.15 Aintree. Black Op sounds like a Dashiel Hammett noir detective novel but there’s no mystery about his ability. The stable to be on his Nogel Twiston Davies (two wins) and Bombers Moon at 80 on BETDAQ is my bouncer to burst the layer’s dam.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points, except banker and multiples)
BET 3pts win DREAM BERRY, 2.5pts win ICE COLD SOUL, and 1.8pts win and place SKY KHAN (1.40 Aintree).
BANKER BET: 20pts win (nap) RIVER WYLDE (2.20 Aintree)
BET 9pts win SUB LIEUTENANT and 7.5pts win FOX NORTON (3.25 Aintree)
BET 2.7pts win SEEFOOD and 1.3pts win and place O O SEVEN (4.05 Aintree)
BET 11pts win THE WORLD’S END and 2.5pts win DEBECE (4.40 Aintree)
BET 8pts win BLACK OP and (to win 100) 1.25pts win and place BOMBER’S MOON (5.15 Aintree)
DAQ MULTIPLES 4 x 2pts win trebles River Wylde (2.20 Aintree) with Might Bite and Whisper (2.50 Aintree) and with Sub Lieutenant and Fox Norton (3.25 Aintree)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
