DAQMAN’S DAY-ONE WINNING NAP AND 2-2 LAYS UP AT AINTREE: The last time the Topham was run, Daqman tipped Cadmium (WON 8-1 from 24.0 on BETDAQ). He’d like to do the same today to ease the pain of three seconds yesterday: The Shunter (2nd 7-2), Clondaw Castle (2nd 13-2) and Sully Doc AA (2nd 12-1 from BETDAQ 14.0), coming straight after Run Wild Fred (2nd 9-1) in Monday’s Irish National. But at least the Aintree nap won, Monmiral (WON 10-11), and his Lays Logic had two out of two unplaced.
OPENING DOUBLE FOR NICHOLLS AS THE HOME SQUAD WINS 5-2: England won the first round at Aintree 5-2 yesterday when just two favourites won, both trained Paul Nicholls, with other winners for Arthur Moore, Dan Skelton, J J O’Shea, Gary Moore and Denise Foster (alias Gordon Elliott).
BETDAQ BACKS UP GRAND NATIONAL VALUE WITH NO COMMISSION: Here’s that Topham Trophy bet (taking offers of 9.2 and 17.5) but first a reminder of super value available every day and particularly on Saturday, which just happens to be the Grand National and a day of No Commission.
Headlines:
🔹 SECRETS OF HUGE BETDAQ VALUE
🔹 48.0 KATESON A COURSE WINNER
🔹 BE LUCKI IN BATTLE WITH DUSART
🔹 BLUE CAN BRING THE HOUSE DOWN
🔹 TAKE FAKIR AGAINST THE QUIRKS
🔹 FORM? ONE RACE IS ALL YOU NEED
🔹 GALLYHILL FUTURE CHASING STAR
🔹 THIS YEAR IT WILL BE ‘NEXT YEAR’
SECRETS OF HUGE BETDAQ VALUE
BETDAQ value. That’s the key to a successful Aintree. It’s there for you race by race but, if you are canny, you’ll have spotted the extra value towards the end of each day, including the feature race.
That’s when the bookies are running scared and BETDAQ value becomes a HUGE edge, as was revealed yesterday.
After two favourites up and winners at 5-1 and 17-2, the early overrounds of 110-117 revealed in the SP extended to 119, 124 even 129.
That’s a bit better than the 2019 first-day overrounds of 121, 120 and 138 towards the end of the afternoon, and 122, 131 and 139 the second day.
But, heh, just check out the last two runnings of the Grand National on the third day! The overrounds on the big race were 153% in 2018 and 163% in 2019. That’s like losing half your money!
Will the current SP system produce a pain in the wallet like that tomorrow? Don’t worry about it: stay with BETDAQ value, The lesson was learned in the Irish National when the 150-1 winner paid 463-1 on BETDAQ.
Your first task of the day is to look at the morning BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE lists which – today for example – show odds only marginally against you overall: at 8.15 a.m. they were, race by race, 107, 103, 102, 107, 103, 104, 107. Pay particular attention to those later races.
And be on your marks tomorrow for a Grand National day of value, value, value… like this:
🟪 PUNTER-FRIENDLY OFFERS which add up to as near a level playing-field as possible, totalling 103-107% in the morning.
🟪 A FULL RANGE OF PRICES often right out to 200.0 before a big-field race and as much as 463-1 for a 150-1 SP winner. Check it out in Tuesday’s Daqman!
As they might say on ITV, explaining the odds: ‘a pound on the 150-1 winner of the Irish National would win you 150 plus your pound back.’
🟪 BETDAQ translation: a pound on the 150-1 winner would pay you BETDAQ odds of 463-1, so you would win 463 plus your pound back, and on Saturday, don’t forget:
🟪 WHAT YOU WIN IS WHAT YOU GET: There’s NO Commission to pay!
49.0 KATESON A COURSE WINNER
⭕ 1.45 Aintree (Pertemps Hurdle Final) Not a favourite in sight, with winners at 7-1, 8-1, 10-1 (three), 14-1, 16-1 (two), 20-1 and 33-1. Only one winner carried more than 11st 4lb.
Nicky Henderson won it three times in six years (2013-19), with Gordon Elliottt (aka Denise Foster) next best on two in the decade, including the last time the meeting was held.
A huge field today but percentages for each runner added up to an incredible 107 in the BETDAQ orange this morning, so close to a level playing-field you can have two or three bets without losing your edge.
Tom Scudamore rode the grey Kateson just the once last year and won here at Aintree, giving more than a stone to the runner-up.
The third horse home had been fourth in the Greatwood and went on to be third in the Lanzarote. And Tom is back on board today.
Monte Cristo was counted out when hampered in the Coral Cup; Aintree is more his bag. But Nico De Boinville prefers Mister Coffey, forecast by Nicky Henderson as ‘a spectacular horse’ for the future.
Betdaq value 7.5 Mister Coffey, 12.0 Monte Cristo, 49.0 Kateson
BE LUCKI IN BATTLE WITH DUSART
⭕ 2.20 Aintree (Top Novices’ Hurdle) The likes of Josses Hill, My Tent Or Yours and Buveur d’Air have won this. Today it looks a match race.
Nicky Henderson has taken it five times in the decade. He missed out in 2019 to an Elliott-Mullins Irish one-two but only Kildare trainer, Peter Fahey, comes over to try to spoil the Seven Barrows party this time.
The Henderson runner, Dusart, probably rates higher than Fahey’s Belfast Banter and, though that’s on just one run, one win, he has been the medium of a gamble in the run-up to this race, described by jockey Nico De Boinville as ‘a real stand-out horse.’
At 2.98 on BETDAQ this morning, he is clearly expected to make the leap forward, though such as Ajero, Any News and Third Time Lucki have bags more experience if it comes to a fight.
Third Time Lucki (4.7) rallied defiantly, beaten three lengths, when facing an impossible task at the weights against Belfast Banter in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham. He is now a stone better off!
BLUE CAN BRING THE HOUSE DOWN
⭕ 2.50 Aintree (Mildmay Novices’ Chase) This is a favourites race (three of the last five), with no winner higher than 6-1 at SP.
Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls are two each in the decade, with such aces played as Nicholls’ Silviniaco Conti, who came to the race rated 173. The entire race was incredible value on BETDAQ this morning at 102%
Chantry House (on 159) is the best we’ll see today on the ratings but how good is he after the disappointment yesterday of stablemate Fusil Raffles?
Despite losing a fore shoe, Chantry House beat ‘Raffles’ easily in the Golden Miller at Cheltenham. BETDAQ 2.77 this morning.
With Team Tizzard still on the floor, Fiddlerontheroof has his work cut out to maintain even his bridesmaid status: 212222. Just a head win at Exeter in lower class since Shishkin put him in his place at the 2020 Cheltenham festival.
Shan Blue it was who pulled the plug on another Tizzard ‘star’, The Big Breakaway, when completing a hat-trick back at Kempton (3m) on King Geoge day.
Shan Blue was beaten at Sandown by Sporting John over shorter but that one must now recover from a Cheltenham fall, and backing Philip Hobbs (0-33) is currently worse than being with Colin Tizzard (1-26).
Betdaq value 8.6 Shan Blue
TAKE FAKIR AGAINST THE QUIRKS
⭕ 3.25 Aintree (Marsh/Melling Chase) An absolute goldmine this. Seams of fabulous 2m and 2m 4f form represented in the decade by such as Master Minded, Sprinter Sacre, Don Cossack and Politologue.
Top horses and top trainers only, and Paul Nicholls expects to win it for the third time in the decade, fielding three, but Henry De Bromhead, who broke all records at Cheltenham, is on the attack with Notebook
Jumps well and will like the ground but has to step up in trip for the first time since he faded out of it in the Ballymore at Cheltenham in 2019.
The one for the money has been Fakir d’Oudairies, runner-up in the Ryanair at Cheltenham but 12 lengths behind Notebook at the start of his season. If only you could rely on Notebook to run to form?
Politologue has looked much better at 2m and, though he won this in 2018, was
well beaten last time the race was run.
You don’t know what you’ll get with him. The horse that won the Champion Chase or the one that bled and had to be pulled out of Cheltenham. Ditto Notebook who is well quirky.
Betdaq value So let’s go with the favourite Fakir at 3.6 in a 102% BETDAQ orange.
FORM? ONE RACE IS ALL YOU NEED
⭕ 4.05 Aintree (Topham Chase) No successful favourite in sight! SPs from 8-1, 9-1, 10-1 to 22-1 even 50-1.
Yet the winning trainers are the usual suspects: Nicky Henderson (three in seven years), the home sequence broken by Willie Mullins at the last meeting in 2019.
Sir Jack Yeats and Modus enjoyed these fences when second and third in the Grand Sefton in December. Senior Citizen jumped superbly but needs to find another gear.
Huntsman Son has the ground to suit, and when running on behind The Shunter and Farclas in the Power Plate at the Cheltenham Festival.
The Leopardstown Chase, with Minella Times second and Livelovelaugh third, could presage an amazing double: Minella Times in the National and Livelovelaugh in this.
Morning Vicar will be much more suited to this than the stamina-sapping Kim Muir at Cheltenham and is on a very nice mark for a Henderson tilt. Massive field but only 107 total percentage in the BETDAQ orange, as I write.
Betdaq value 9.2 Livelovelaugh, 17.5 Morning Vicar
GALLYHILL FUTURE CHASING STAR
⭕ 4.40 Aintree (Sefton Novices Hurdle) It’s a weakish renewal on paper. Very smart animals, Champ and Santini, won it off 150 and 152 in 2018-19 but top of the ratings today is Oscar Elite off 142, and both Midnight River and Streets Of Doyen are racing off 141.
Bravemansgame, the Nicholls favourite, is short and, like Streets Of Doyen, now seems exposed so
I’m looking at a clash between Irish Cesarewitch winner Cape Gentleman and Gallyhill for man-of-the-day Nicky Henderson.
Still a big baby, Gallyhill is a staying chaser in the making, which the step up to 3m could reveal today. He’s very much the ‘wrong’ price and one to follow.
Betdaq value 6.5 Cape Gentleman, 8.6 Gallyhill in an incredible 102 total l percentage
Lays Logic Bravemansgame
THIS YEAR IT WILL BE ‘NEXT YEAR’
⭕ 5.15 Aintree Conditionals and amateurs in a huge field for a 2m hurdle. No wonder no outright favourite has won.
The Irish have taken two of the last four: Henry De Bromhead makes the trip over today but Bold Enough has won only his maiden, always a bad sign.
The runner-up in this at the last Grand National meeting, Thistimenextyear, has the smart Simon Torrens booked.
Betdaq value 18.5 Thistimenextyear
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.45 Aintree (bull’s-eye bets to win 50, place 10)
BET 7.5pts win MISTER COFFEY
BET 4.5pts win MONTE CRISTO
BET 1pt win and 1.5pts place KATESON
2.20 Aintree (win 20, win 10)
BET 5pts win THIRD TIME LUCKI
BET 5pts win DUSART
2.50 Aintree (win 10, win 20)
BET 6pts win CHANTRY HOUSE
BET 2.75pts win SHAN BLUE
3.25 Aintree (win 20 nap)
BET 8pts win FAKIR D’OUDAIRIES
4.05 Aintree (win 30, win 10 place)
BET 3.5pts win LIVELOVELAUGH
BET 1.75pts win and 3.25pts place MORNING VICAR
4.40 Aintree (win 30)
BET 5.5pts win CAPE GENTLEMAN
BET 4pts win GALLYHILL
5.15 Aintree (win 30, win 10 place)
BET 1.75pts win 3.25pts place THISTIMENEXTYEAR
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
