10.5 DAQMAN DANCING ON HIS OWN: Daqman was a lone voice for an outsider in the Red Rum Chase yesterday but made it his only 50-point bet and proved his point about BETDAQ value. He had 10.5 about 17-2 winner, Dancing On My Own, who tired two out but was galvanised to a finish by Rachael Blackmore.
WON 15-2 DANCING ON MY OWN Betdaq value 10.5
HENDERSON IS LEADING TRAINER: Day 2 opens with Ireland 4-3 down to the home stables, with Nicky Henderson (2) the overall leader from Chris Barber, Henry De Bromhead, Fergal O’Brien, Joseph O’Brien, Willie Mullins, TOP JOCKEYS: Nico De Boinville (2), William Biddick, Rachael Blackmore, Paddy Brennan, J J Slevin, Mark Walsh.
Day 2 Headlines
DAVY’S WINNING FAREWELL
SKY’S THE LIMIT TO RACHAEL
LUCCIA GETS WEIGHT SWING
FAKIR CAN STRIKE A MATCH
200-POINT GAMBLE ON LAD
REMINDER: DAQMAN’S ABC GUIDE TO THE GRAND NATIONAL
DAVY’S WINNING FAREWELL
⭕ 1.45 Aintree (Mildmay) This can be a kingmaker race. The Gold Cup one-two of 2018 (Native River and Might Bite) had each won it in the two previous seasons.
Your horse needs to be aged six or seven, with a high rating already (157-159 recently), so 10-year-old Thomas Darby, plus 135 and 146 rated Sholokjack and Galia Des Liteaux, need more than a slice of luck.
What Galia Des Liteaux needs is heavy rain, as a clear winner over Complete Unknown in a bog at Warwick.
Complete Unknown is actually worse off here and his trainer, Paul Nicholls, with Bravemansgame an enforced absentee and Stage Star rubbished by Banbridge, had a disastrous opening day.
Bronn would probably like it softer and he weakened more than four lengths behind Gerri Colombe (just failed to beat The Real Whacker), when they were placed in the Brown Advisory, both stepping up to around 3m.
Gerri Colombe (pictured below) had already held Bronn over shorter at Fairyhouse (only had to be pushed out) in the autumn. It’s Davy Russell’s main chance before a Grand National farewell on Galvin.
SKY’S THE LIMIT TO RACHAEL
⭕ 2.20 Aintree (handicap hurdle) Nicky Henderson (No Ordinary Joe) – winner of this twice recently – and Philip Hobbs (Camprond) have to defy the stats with 11st 11lb top-weights. Highest winning burden carried in the decade is 11-4.
But Camprond has a lot of class: big-field handicap winner at Punchestown last Spring, went for home too soon, third, in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham.
Gordon Elliott, who has won it back to back (2019 and 2021, including when a.k.a. Denise Foster at 22-1), saddles two big outsiders.
The Bosses Oscar has 11st 12lb and Aidan Kelly’s claim comes in handy. So, too, Kieren Buckley’s with seeming second string, Off Your Rocco, who won 4-5 before an enforced year off.
Consistent placer Buddy One, from the fields of Athenry, is claimed off after his close third in the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham. No Ordinary Joe was a nose in front of him, second.
Local trainer Donald McCain and champion Brian Hughes have Jungle Jack, a big strong Doyen, son of a Niniski mare. He is 5-8 and never been out of the first two.
Unfortunately the stable is currently 0-17, including favourites turned over at 11-8 and even money.
Rachael Blackmore’s grey mare, Martello Sky, has been running in Graded and Listed company since winning her last handicap at Cheltenham. She’s 10 times in a place, six of them wins.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 10.5 Camprond, 19.5 Martello Sky
LUCCIA GETS WEIGHT SWING
⭕ 2.55 Aintree (Top Novices Hurdle) Nicky Henderson used this as his launch pad for My Tent Or Yours, Josses Hill, Buveur d’Air and last year Jonbon.
But it says a lot about today’s race and his hopes for next year’s star prizes that he relies on a mare, Luccia, beaten favourite, fourth, at Cheltenham in the Dawn Run.
What makes this viable is that Luccia, who had to carry a 5lb penalty at Cheltenham, receives 7lb sex allowance here, so could be regarded as 12lb better off.
Rachael Blackmore rides the Supreme fourth Inthepocket and others attempting redemption after Cheltenham defeat include Pembroke; a tongue-tie could help him make up for his County Hurdle flop when favourite (bad mistake two out) after a close second in January’s Ballymore trial.
Tahmuras, who has to bounce back from a below-par Cheltenham run, and Pic D’Orhy in the next are under this week’s Paul Nicholls cloud.
BETDAQ value 5.1 Inthepocket, 5.8 Luccia, 30 Pembroke
FAKIR CAN STRIKE A MATCH
⭕ 3.30 Aintree (Melling Chase) Having ignored my own long-term prediction yesterday, that Banbridge was an Aintree horse, I will stick with his trainer, Joseph O’Brien, today.
Pic D’Orhy (Paul Nicholls) finished in front of Fakir D’Oudairies (pictured below) at Ascot, but the O’Brien eight-year-old won this last year and has cheekpieces first time today.
Nicholls is having a dramatic reverse this week: his three Aintree players – after the defection of Bravemansgame – were beaten a total of 130 lengths and on one of his local tracks, Taunton, he finished 1-5 with two favourites thrashed a total of 35 lengths.
BETDAQ value 3.05 Fakir D’Doudairies
200-POINT GAMBLE ON LAD
⭕ 4.05 Aintree (Topham Chase) In 20 years, no outright favourite has won this race, though Gwanako was joint-fav in 2008.
But I’m not going to run up the red Lays Logic flag, if my FORTUNE COOKIE Ashtown Lad, heads the market, as expected: I took 10.0 on BETDAQ this morning for a tilt at 200 points profit!
He was my choice for the Grand National but I didn’t have an antepost bet, as I had concerns – soon to be voiced by the trainer – about his stamina.
So the Topham should be the target, has been the target. If ever a horse was laid out for a race, it is Ashtown Lad.
He won the Becher Chase over the big fences (3m 2f), so his jumping ability – I could say jumping agility – and stamina is assured over today’s trip. Today is his Grand National.
Gesskille is no stranger to the National fences: he was second in the Becher, 3lb better off with Ashtown Lad, and last November was beaten a nose in the Grand Sefton by Al Dancer, who is now 2lb worse off.
Willie Mullins has won this twice recently but his Haut En Couleurs has 12st and Burrows Saint 11st 9lb.
Burrows Saint weakened on the long run-in, when fourth in the 2021 National, and today looks good for him, too; he’s a one-time winner of the Irish Grand National (3m 5f).
Fantastikas missed the cut for Saturday’s big race so takes his chance here. Still only eight, he could be considered again for next year if he gets round today.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.45 Aintree (supernap)
BET 20pts win GERRI COLOMBE
2.20 Aintree (each to win 30)
BET 3pts win CAMPROND
Bet 1.5pts win and place MARTELLO SKY
2.55 Aintree (each to win 30)
BET 7.50pts win INTHEPOCKET
BET 6.2pts win LUCCIA
BET 1pt win and place PEMBROKE
3.30 Aintree (win 20)
BET 10pts win FAKIR D’DOUDAIRIES
4.05 Aintree
FORTUNE COOKIE (10.0 on BETDAQ)
BET 20pts win and 5pts place ASHTOWN LAD
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