8-1 BIG-RACE WINNER AND ANOTHER BANKER UP: Daqman named the one-two in the big handicap at Newmarket yesterday, Maputo (WON 8-1) and Red Avenger (2nd 8-1), topping up his profits with a maximum-stakes banker on Portrait (WON 1-4).
THAT GIVES HIM BACK-TO-BACK NAPS: Portrait followed Noble Gift (nap, WON 13-8) in a BETDAQ-sponsored race at Kempton Park on Wednesday night, and gives him eight winning bankers out of 10 this year.
BUT DAQMAN DOESN’T FEEL LIKE DANCING: He started the day with Feel Like Dancing (WON 3-1) in the opening race of the July Meeting, which continues today. But he blew a large hole in the winnings on a losing lay (lays total now 18 successful from 23).
1.40 Newmarket Richard Hannon (Indignant and Beautiful View) and Hughie Morrison (Jubilante) have both won this race in the last four seasons.
Jubilante’s recent form – third over this CD – was boosted when the fifth won at Newbury but the sixth flopped at Leicester.
He warrants an ‘improver arrow’ for this run, marked on his top-rating blob in the Racing Post. But how can that be when he was dropping from a class 2 to a class 4 and ‘got beat?’
The horse just in front of him that day, runner-up Nardin, has since confirmed the level of the form by being second again in the same low grade, also over today’s CD.
Indignant had Beautiful View well beaten (slow away, slipped) at Sandown, and the BETDAQ market this morning says they will finish that way again.
Supernova Heights was behind Beautiful View over CD late last month but is expected to do better on the firm ground.
Dream Wild and Tantshi have to leap a couple of grades but are lightly raced and with stables quite capable of improving them that much.
The form horse is Sorella Bella, from a yard doing well and only about four lengths off the winner of the Sandringham Handicap at Royal Ascot. But she has to give weight all round.
VERDICT: The straight-course yesterday returned a low-number one-two all day: 6f (two races) 5 beat 4 and 1 beat 6; 1m 2 beat 1; and 5f 6 beat 5.
That implies that BETDAQ punters have got it right, since Indignant, Nardin and Dream Wild head the market.
Dream Wild, dropping back in distance, is bred for an Oaks on the dam’s side but is by July Cup winner Oasis Dream, who can also get sprinters, so maybe the trainer has got the trip right this time.
2.10 Newmarket (Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes) Six winners of this had been first or second at Royal Ascot, and the question is whether Rizeena can carry a Group-2 penalty – from her scintillating Queen Mary win – over this extra furlong.
The next 11 home at Ascot had all won races, right back to Bye Bye Birdie, 12th then yet second favourite in this morning’s BETDAQ market.
The third and fourth, One Chance and Fig Roll, seem sure catch the Birdie again, though we’ve seen this week already (Maputo) that form from the royal meeting, where the going can only be described as ‘Ascot fast’, can be misleading.
VERDICT: Rizeena (2.38 on BETDAQ as I write) is on a roll and would be odds on here, if trained by one of the top yards, but Clive Brittain has handled the filly well and she showed no sign of stopping at Ascot. In fact, the dam won over 7f and is related to stayers.
2.25 York (Summer Stakes) Gracia Directa (11.0 on BETDAQ) won this last year and Ladies Are Forever (offers of 16.0) in 2011. But five-year-olds have held off the youngsters only once in nine seasons, and both may prefer an easier surface.
The Cheveley Park winner, Rosdhu Queen, has fallen just short of top class this season, fourth in the Fred Darling and fifth in the Diamond Jubilee, and is a stand-out here, if it wasn’t for her temperament.
After a hard season as a two-year-old, Body And Soul still hadn’t come in her coat last month but won over today’s CD in very fast time, and is tough and versatile (won on both soft and firm).
VERDICT: I can’t back Rossdhu Queen after seeing her play up in the stalls at Newbury and Ascot. One of these days, she’ll boil over completely.
At 6.2, Body And Soul is excellent value and a sub-110% BETDAQ market allows me to have a saver on Rossdhu Queen in case she is settled and throws egg on my face.
2.40 Newmarket (Falmouth Stakes) Though the Classic year has won four of the last seven Falmouths, the overall tally on winners to runners is four-year-olds 16%, three-year-olds 10%.
And Sky Lantern’s two older opponents today (the one-two in this last year) are only just now starting their campaigns so, rather than this being an odds-on shoo-in for the favourite, it’s a real test of the generations.
Elusive Kate came into this fresh last year and was just beaten by Giofra on soft ground not to her liking. She’s had a run back this time (Some ‘run’! Fourth in the Queen Anne).
Sky Lantern, waited with, has stormed through the pack in both 1,000 Guineas and Coronation Stakes, but there is no place to hide today, with just four runners, and the form of those wins is sub-standard.
Only Just the Judge comes out of the Sky Lantern double as top class alongside her. The Queen Anne second and fourth have won only Group 3s and, with the exception of Just The Judge, the Guineas also rans have nothing to show since but one Listed win (Winning Express).
VERDICT: Odds-on Sky Lantern has it to prove against the older generation and front-runner Elusive Kate (3.5 on BETDAQ) could dictate in a potentially tactical race.
3.15 Newmarket If Body And Soul wins earlier, Moviesta– second to that one at York in very fast time – will be a shorter-priced favourite, despite the size of this field.
But that run, in which he pulled hard, cost Moviesta a 5lb rise (now worse in with the third, Barracuda Boy) and he’s drawn in stall 14. The 1-2-3 by stall in yesterday’s 6f maiden went to 1, 6, 4, and last year’s result of this race was 3, 6, 1.
They’re fired up about Burning Blaze, as Jamie Spencer’s choice, but he’s tried different trips, tried different tactics, raced on different ground.
Yet he’s won only his maiden, and it’s the hat-trick-seeking Equity Risk, supposed Kevin Ryan second-string, who catches the eye in stall 3.
Paul Hanagan, winner of the July Stakes yesterday on the assumed Richard Hannon second best, is again on Richard Hughes’ rejected here, Mutazamen from stall 5.
Robot Boy (in the one stall) gets the Racing Post ‘improver arrow’, officially up 7lb but a winner only in class 4, beaten earlier on fast ground, and with the animal that ran second to him at Windsor last time of only class 5.
Regal Dan, second in a class 2 on the Rowley Mile course at Newmarket in April (holds Heavens Guest), is from a yard that loves to win handicaps at HQ and the stable is on a four-timer after a hat-trick yesterday, including a winner at this July Meeting.
Ninjago is not out of it, dropped back from the pattern, but is in a high stall and has to give weight all round. The 17.0 offer Purcell (stall 2) has campaigned in the exact same (tautology rules, ok) races that previous Andrew Balding winners of this took in.
VERDICT: Regal Dan is a massive 24.0 on BETDAQ this morning, possibly saved up for this since the Spring. Purcell also looks lined up for a tilt. Despite seemingly second string, Equity Risk (10.5) is the same offer as stablemate Burning Blaze this morning, has last year’s winning stall, and looks hot in the low numbers. Ninjago’s the class horse.
DAQMAN’S BETS: Above-average racing so stakes raised to win 30 points each bet, except for the lay. A Value Bet today is where BETDAQ offers add up to 109% or lower, total probability. Gold Value is where the favourite is opposed in such a race (the 2.40 Newmarket was underround at 99% this morning, the 3.15 was 107%).
VALUE BET: 5.8pts win DREAM WILD (1.40 Newmarket)
VALUE BET: BANKER 20pts win (nap) RIZEENA (2.10 Newmarket)
GOLD VALUE BET: 5.7pts win BODY AND SOUL and 2.2pts win (stakes saver) ROSSDHU QUEEN (2.25 York)
LAY 10pts SKY LANTERN and GOLD VALUE BET: 12pts win ELUSIVE KATE (2.40 Newmarket)
GOLD VALUE BETS: 3pts win EQUITY RISK, 2.7pts win NINJAGO, 1.8pts win PURCELL, 1.3pts win and place REGAL DAN (3.15 Newmarket)
BET 0.8pts win and place HAZELRIGG (4.05 York)
BET 2.8pts win CYFLINDER (6.20 Chester)
SPECIAL BET 5.5pts win GABRIAL’S GIFT (8.50 Chester)
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