PADDY FIELD CONDITIONS AT ASCOT: Back to the future! Racing today at Ascot, though marred by heavy ground, usually provides clues to Cheltenham and beyond.The market often guides on such a day and Daqman spotted some deliberate play by the layers against one of the big stables. Headlines:
🔹 TAKE A DEEP BREATH AT ASCOT
🔹 TEASING US TO HAVE A (HU)GO
🔹 DEBUCHET HAS TURNKEY FORM
🔹 DEBONAIR LOOKED MASTERFUL
🔹 PADDY FIELD CONDITIONS..
ALL SPECIAL BETS ARE IN PROFIT: Daqman starts the two days at Ascot, the last big meeting before Boxing Day, 152 points in front of Pricewise to 10-point level stakes, and in profit on all his special bets.
ACCOUNTS UPDATE
Daqman 13, Pricewise 5 (+112.30 to -140.00)
Bull’s-eye bets 35% (+76.20 from 5-14)
Bulls-eye naps 47% (+249pts from 8-17)
All Daily Naps 45% (+51.36 from 17-38)
Supernaps 60% (+64.68 from 6-10)
TAKE A DEEP BREATH AT ASCOT
12.45 Ascot (Grade-2 novice chase) My man’s contention in yesterday’s column – which stables to support in which category is already set in concrete – seems borne out here, as Angels Breath for Nicky Henderson seemingly only has to stand up to continue his Arkle prep against a Paul Nicholls ‘only hopeful’.
Angels Breath is already a course winner here, only having to be pushed out to complete a fluent round eight lengths clear on the last day, showing a liking for deep ground.
The winner went some way to franking the form by making all and scoring 20 lengths next time out, though it was a nothing race at Hereford, when only two finished.
Angels Breath steps up in trip today, though it will hardly open up his perspective any further to be trotting up against a solitary opponent.
He seems to have the gears for almost any trip but Henderson needs to decide where to put him when he already has Champ, just a pound higher than Angel’s Breath on 152.
TEASING US TO HAVE A (HU)GO
1.20 Ascot (maiden hurdle) A long slog of a trip for most, and on heavy ground. Who’s bred for the job?
Beyond The Storm, Butterwick Brook, Hugos Other Horse (Cue Card’s half-brother), It Sure Is (second at Newbury over a similar trip) and Torn And Frayed have the credentials among those with some current stable form.
Even allowing for the strength in depth of the Henderson squad, it’s not in my nature to bet even money or so about a maiden in a field this size, albeit he’s the one with experience over timber. It sure isn’t!
I was going to give Paul Nicholls the chance to prove my man was wrong on that ‘nil’ assessment yesterday, with Hugos Other Horse generally around 9.9 in the BETDAQ orange early mouse.
But later on layers seemed to be playing ‘chicken’, tempting backers with 13.5, 13.0, 12.5, 12.0 and 11.0 offers, taken up to fair chunks of equity.
As I wrote this, it was 2.06 It Is Sure, 4.8 Torn And Frayed, 13.0 bar two, so I took a bit of that 4.8, thinking it should shrink. In fact, the front two went 2.0 and 4.5, as I got ready to whoosh the copy down the line.
DEBUCHET HAS TURNKEY FORM
1.55 Ascot A Limited handicap for novice chasers has Nicholls with the known quality, a dual winner over hurdles since bought from Guillaume Macaire’s academy Francaise: that’s why Greaneteen is top of the weights, a position which has produced the last two winners of this race.
But he has chasing experience against him in Sully D’Oc, second at Newbury to another young Macaire import, Fanion D’Estruval, so impressive I have him marked down for Fortune Cookies status in my horses-to-follow list.
And there was a lot to like about Debuchet when the grey gelding made all for Margaret Mullins at Fairyhouse, with the second horse home cruising to victory at Navan next time. That was on soft-heavy, turnkey form in today’s conditions, and I took 2.71 in the BETDAQ orange.
DEBONAIR LOOKED MASTERFUL
2.30 Ascot (Supreme Trial Novices Hurdle) Nicky Henderson’s team of novice hurdlers took a knock on Wednesday when the heavily-backed Shishkin fell at odds on at Newbury. Fraser Island trotted up in the juvenile but that looked handicapping level.
In this Supreme Trial, Seven Barrows fields Time Flies By for the prize they won last year with Angels Breath, who should already have been in the winner’s enclosure this afternoon.
Time Flies By, making his hurdles debut, would give Henderson a hat-trick in this Supreme Trial over Paul Nicholls, who picks McFabulous from three five-day acceptors.
Bumper form has McFabulous well clear of Master Debonair, whose Cheltenham conqueror in October failed to make any impact in classy company at Newbury. But McFabulous fluffed his lines when odds on for his hurdles debut at Chepstow, whereas Debonair’s CD winner here at Ascot on soft was masterful, making all and with a particularly clever jump at the last.
Master Debonair had northern winner Ribble Valley (clipped heels and stumbled at one stage) 10 lengths behind him in a bumper but Nicky Richards’ raider has also excelled over hurdles since, going clear on the last day at Wetherby over a Newbury winner.
That performance has Ribble Valley red hot this morning, odds-on favourite over Master Debonair, with McFabulous and Time Flies By both huge at 7.0 and 8.6 respectively.
I can never bet on northern form until I’ve seen it tested on the big southern tracks, never mind at odds on, as is Ribble Valley this morning.
So I’m taking the young Tizzard master under Robbie Power at a tasty 4.4 on BETDAQ this morning.
PADDY FIELD CONDITIONS..
3.05 Ascot I have been moaning about lack of handicap betting opportunities and what do they give me at Ascot today but one for conditional jockeys!
It’s a bit of a pinsticker’s race in the mud but Ashfield Paddy fits the stats: the race has gone to a five-year-old ridden by a 3lb claimer every time.
Saint De Reve won comfortably over today’s trip on his home course of Wincanton but has to give 12lb to Ashfield Paddy (4.5 offers taken on BETDAQ), ridden by Jonjo O’Neill junior.
3.40 Ascot You might want to look beyond the Champion Bumper at the Cheltenham Festival for horses to follow from this NH Flat race. In 2014, for instance, Supasundae beat Yanworth and Thistlecrack: you could have lived off that result!
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.20 Ascot (win 10)
BET 2.5pts win TORN AND FRAYED
1.55 Ascot (win 10)
BET 6.5pts win DEBUCHET
2.30 Ascot (win 20)
BET 6pts win (nap) MASTER DEBONAIR
3.05 Ascot (win 20)
BET 5.6pts win ASHFIELD PADDY
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