BANKER ATTACK ON ASCOT: 23 OUT OF 27 THIS YEAR: Daqman has landed 23 winning bankers from 27 in 2013 for an amazing 85% strike rate and has another one at Ascot today, the exciting Nicky Henderson prospect, Volnay De Thaix, at odds against on BETDAQ this morning.
‘MOLE’ TO DIG OUT THE LAYS AFTER 11 IN A ROW: Daqman relies on Mr Mole in the novices’ chase. He feels that the small-field tactical race will be against Fox Appeal over a trip too short for him. He tries to restore the lays to winning form after four defeats following 11 successes in a row.
1.00 Ascot Nicky Henderson – form figures for the race 101 – wants it badly this year, with three runners. His Royal Boy is bred for the trip but so, too, are Harry’s Farewell, Mac’s Return, Pleasant Company, Such A Legend and Tara Road.
Mac’s Return, an impressive Point winner in Ireland, was well out the back door on his hurdles debut early in the year , but you can rely on P Nicholls to have sorted him.
There’s an intriguing bumpers line through Ebony Empress: she was beaten two lengths by Tara Road but, before that, was hammered more than 10 by Pleasant Company.
Harry’s Farewell looks exposed but, if Kim Bailey wasn’t so badly out of form, I’d be looking for a good run from Such A Legend. A fair effort would put him in the notebook (under ‘next time’).
As it is, I’ll take Pleasant Company to continue his run at the expense of the Tolworth third, Royal Boy, who was not fluent in that race, nor over fences on his reappearance.
1.30 Ascot It goes against the grain to back a short-priced four-year-old to win a race like this, albeit with A P McCoy on board.
Four four-year-olds have attempted it since 2006 and finished third (17 and a half lengths behind) and fourth (beaten 28 lengths) or unseated rider (two of them).
But the runner-up in Rio De Sivola’s British debut win, Roc d’Apsis, won his next race, as a four-year-old in all-aged company.
Philip Hobbs currently has a 75% place strike-rate (30-40) and Orabora could improve for the reappearance run, while Getting Ready is better than the bare form and from a stable absolutely flying this season.
In the words of his trainer, Double Handful is ‘much better right-handed,’ but he’s hard work for his jockey from an early stage in his races and I’m waiting for blinkers to be fitted.
Another trainer quote (‘he’s very genuine and enthusiastic’) suggests that Orabora may be overpriced. Saver Rio De Sivola.
1.50 Uttoxeter This 3m on the soft will take some getting, particularly off top-weight, but Henry Daly hopes that he has mugged the handicapper with Cyrien Star.
Running him before a Saturday hike, which puts his Star up 23lb in less than a month, means that the gelding can race with a 7lb penalty wiped out by claimer Jack Sherwood.
One For Harry could improve for his first try at the trip and he’s a winner on heavy ground, while Woodford County might bounce back, but it’s hard to be confident that anything can stop Cyrien Star’s run.
2.00 Ascot Best recent winner of this was Medermit, who went on to run second in the Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham.
Nicky Henderson, who has won twice since 2003 – neither one was favourite – saddles the hitherto impressive Volnay De Thaix, ‘still a big baby’ and aimed at the Tolworth Hurdle in January, which is also the target of Paul Nicholls’ Irving.
Yes, it’s another old-firm battle but Henderson should know where he stands: he’s run Tradeswinds third to Irving here at Ascot and Cup Final second to him at Taunton.
Both are rated well behind ‘Volnay’ at home, and the shade over even money on BETDAQ this morning rates banker value.
2.35 Ascot This was Simonsig’s stepping-stone to Arkle success last season, 49-lengths winner in a similarly small field.
The form of Up To Something’s second to Wonderful Charm at Newbury looks good. Like Raya Star when runner-up to Dodging Bullets in the Arkle Trial at Cheltenham, he failed to last out from the front.
Note that both Wonderful Charm and Dodging Bullets are stablemates of Mr Mole, second in the Swinton as a hurdler and a smart winner under McCoy (‘Moley’ he’s owned by J P McManus) on his chasing debut.
Wonderful Charm also beat Fox Appeal at Wincanton, giving him weight, but – though that again points to Ditcheat’s dominating this – Fox Appeal is a very useful sort though, as a 2m 5f hurdles winner, should be much better suited to 3m-plus over fences.
3.10 Ascot Five-year-olds from the top of the handicap (11st 7lb plus) dominated for years until the bottomweight, Farmer Matt, ploughed his way home in the mud last year.
Looking at the top of the weights this time around, Whisky Yankee has been beaten a total of 93 lengths in his last two races – at the tail-end of his last season’s efforts and on his reappearance this – although Jonjo O’Neill’s record in the race is 141.
Azure Fly has failed to make the transition from novice to handicapper, and Bygones Sovereign seems nothing out of the ordinary. Andy Kelly may need more time (another four-year-old pitched into a seniors race) so Polly Peachum is the likely winner.
But Polly had to drop back to novice company to resume winning ways after being found out in a handicap at Huntingdon, and the open market (5.7 the field, as I write) does not suggest that Henderson is confident he has the trajectory right now.
I shall split my stakes with Kilmurvy, who remains unexposed after a decent effort or two at this level.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 6.6pts win PLEASANT COMPANY (1.00 Ascot)
BET 4pts win ORABORA and 2pts win (stakes saver) RIO DE SIVOLA (1.30 Ascot)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) VOLNAY DE THAIX (2.00 Ascot)
DOUBLE WHAMMY: LAY 10pts FOX APPEAL and BET 8pts win MR MOLE (2.35 Ascot)
BET 4.2pts win POLLY PEACHUM and 4pts win KILMURVY (3.10 Ascot)
DAQ MULTIPLES: bet 3 x 3pts win double and 1pt win treble Cyrien Star (1.50 Uttoxeter) with Volnay De Thaix (2.00 Ascot) and Mr Mole (2.35 Ascot)
NEW !!!
You can now follow BETDAQ updates on Google+
For further details – CLICK HERE
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
