KING GEORGE DOUBLE JEOPARDY: Will the forecast heavy rain at Ascot spoil tomorrow’s King George? Will Golden Horn even run? Daqman checks out the soft-ground ability or breeding indications for each of Saturday’s field.
RAIN A WORRY FOR TODAY, TOO: Daqman had a Hidden Horse lined up for today, ‘massively’ suited by conditions of the Brown Jack Stakes. But the rain threat of non-runners and plans spoiled or changed has him keeping his stakes to a nominal win-20.
DYLAN AND CHIANG BOTH UNBEATEN ON SOFT
Where’s the soft touch? Can a change of going mute Golden Horn and, if so, which of his rivals can steal the King George from him tomorrow, with heavy rain forecast for today?
It’s on the record that Dylan Mouth has form figures of 1111 and Clever Cookie 111011141 with ‘soft’ in the going return, but they may not have the class (see Thursday’s ABC guide in the Daqman Archive).
Though Flintshire is French, his success has come on a sound surface and his soft-ground form at home is 2404.
Though John Gosden says in the Racing Post that Romsdal ‘will appreciate any rain,’ he has been beaten into a place in his only outings on soft and sons of Halling generally prefer top of the ground.
Eagle Top, Richard Hughes’ last chance to win a King George, is by Pivotal, noted for his soft-ground influence (though, in fact, his horses usually act on all terrain). His son Farhh won the Champion Stakes on the soft.
Madame Chiang, bred for stamina, has won all three soft-heavy-ground starts, including the 2014 Musidora (York soft, and that’s pretty soft!) and the Champion Fillies and Mares Stakes (heavy) at the Ascot Festival last October.
Postponed has never raced on ground any worse than good but his sire has produced his fair share of easy-surface winners. The Corsican is by Galileo, whose progeny act on any going, but connections don’t feel that his action is suited to the soft.
Snow Sky loves it fast but has won on the heavy and sons and daughters of Nayef usually seem to handle cut without any problem.
HAVISHAM HAS HUGE EDGE BUT RAIN A WORRY
2.30 Thirsk With Comedy Night’s stable out of form, the grey filly Zebedee’s Girl could take advantage of her allowance over the weak morning favourite Ahdaf. James Doyle booked: 6.2 on BETDAQ, as I write. Boing!
2.55 Ascot (Brown Jack Stakes) Three-year-olds have a tremendous record, with four winners from seven starters since 2006 as follows: 1,1-2,4,2,1,1.
All seven were gambled on down to 3-1 or shorter, and three of the four winners were favourite.
The only second-season animal lining up today, Havisham, fifth in the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot, is a maiden but, as such, gets a huge allowance here, with this race chosen over next week’s Goodwood Stakes.
I took an early position at 7.6, hoping the colt will hit that 3-1 SP threshold for horses of his age and give me a trade out, but I’m worried about the ground. It could be anything at 2.55, if there has been rain by then.
Havisham was going to be my first ‘Hidden Horse’ but there is, literally, a cloud over today’s racing, and it’s the going that’s hidden from me, as I write over my cornflakes.
3.30 Ascot (Valiant Stakes) Three-year-olds are 7-3 up over four-year-olds in the decade, with William Haggas scoring twice since 2007 with one from each age group, and just three runners.
His unbeaten Roxy Star (8.4 on BETDAQ this morning) is by Fastnet Rock, who has had a tremendous season with the fillies Diamondsandrubies and Qualify. ‘Roxy’ has to step up here but looks more than capable.
Evita Peron is Group-3 placed (twice) and, as a winner on soft, won’t mind if the ground turns. Montalcino and Yasmeen have done well at Listed level.
4.05 Ascot All bar Exosphere have won with cut in the ground, yet he is favourite here. The Sir Michael Stoute improver shows an action which should allow him to show his paces on any going.
Master Of Finance has gone up the handicap for placed efforts, 11lb higher than for his last success. The form book says there’s not much between him and Field Of Fame.
Great Park stepped up from class 4 to class 2 last time to a narrow defeat, but that’s cost him, too.
4.35 Ascot Green Door, winner of the Flying Childers as a two-year-old, has been highly tried since without much success. Switches to leading sprint trainer Robert Cowell today: 24.0 on BETDAQ for a fun bet, since we know he likes cut in the ground.
DAQMAN BETS (all staked to win 20 points)
BET 4pts win ZEBEDEE’S GIRL (2.30 Thirsk)
BET 3pts win HAVISHAM (2.55 Ascot)
BET 2.7pts win ROXY STAR (3.30 Ascot)
BET 10pts win (nap) EXOSPHERE (4.05 Ascot)
BET 1pt win and place GREEN DOOR (4.35 Ascot)
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