DAQMAN GOES FOR A TOUCH (OR TWO) IN THE BRONZE: The Ayr Gold, Silver and Bronze series is launched today with Daqman taking 30.0 and 13.5 on BETDAQ about two horses called Touch in the Bronze.
The boys are back in the big time. For a while, as handicap ranges narrowed in the modern trend, and the bottom fell out of many big races, lightweight apprentice jockeys lost their way, and the industry feared for them.
Now a new breed of boys, learning fast from the jockeys’ academy and through experience with certain helpful trainers, are being highly sought after.
Those shrewder yards have realized that a tight handicap of only a few pounds can be skewed out of all proportion by a 5lb or 7lb claim, and this is particularly useful in sprints.
There are 20 horses in the Ayr Gold Cup tomorrow within a ratings range of 9lb. The handicapper uses 3lb per length or so as his rule-of-thumb measure for ability at 5f and 6f. That means there are just three lengths between the large part of the field.
Today’s South Ayrshire Cup (2.20) is also a sprint, and also has 20 of its runners within a ratings parameter of only 9lb, where once such a handicap could have a range down to 7st 10lb or less, totaling up to 28lb.
The Ayrshire is a big test for the three weekend Cups – gold, silver and bronze – as it will, hopefully, give us a clue to any advantage in the draw. The Bronze is run later today.
Who’d be a tipster, trying to pick from 54 declared in these two charges, the Ayrshire and the Bronze, of the no-longer-so-light brigade across the braw but boggy Scottish turf, with more rain forecast?
So let’s look to our potential three edges – claiming riders, the draw and soft ground – and see what slant we can put on these races.
1.50 Ayr We might do well to check out the results by stall of this 6f nursery (two-year-olds handicap) as a guide to later on: in fact, in the last six seasons, the winners of this have come from gates 1, 4 and 5 (two from each).
It is also noticeable from the stats that lightly-raced horses win, top-weights do not. They have finished second (twice), third, seventh (twice) and eighth.
The single-figure-stalls horses seem exposed, with the exception of No Leaf Clover, Damaah and Kenny The Captain, of which Damaah looks ‘chucked in’, 8lb better – despite his penalty – than when behind No Leaf Clover at Carlisle last month.
But neither the filly nor the colt is tried on the soft, nor does their pedigree suggest they will do well on it. Kenny The Captain already has good form with cut. Twice.
And a horse from the same stable, three lengths behind him when he was runner-up at Ripon in August, has landed back-to-back wins since.
Moreover, this is Kenny’s first nursery, and he’s bred to be quite a star of the speed game, by Super Sprint winner Captain Rio, who himself was by the soft-ground sire, Pivotal, and has got Graded winners. A tasty 10.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
2.20 Ayr (South Ayrshire Cup) Stalls 3 and 4 have won it on soft-heavy in the last two years and, looking back, the alternative is the other extreme in the 20s, though soft ground usually points to a low-stall success.
This time the top weights, Threes Grand and Imperial Legend, one drawn high, one drawn low, have top boy riders taking their weights down by the potential equivalent of two to three lengths on the field.
Imperial Legend has a question mark over him on today’s surface but Threes Grand has won on the soft, though is a bit risky (slow away once or twice): 17.0 on BETDAQ this morning allowed for that.
But there’s good reason why Aetna is a short price. Goes well in soft ground. Goes well fresh. Goes from stall 2. Should be improving, as a three-year-old. And he’s a standout on form, on a line through Algar Lad.
2.50 Ayr (Harry Rosebery Stakes) No fewer than six in the declared field have led their races at some time in their short careers. The strongest will survive at the front. The weak ones will be overtaken by hold-up horses (if there are any left in the picture!)
It makes for another hard race to bet in, but the rule is to follow lightly-traced unexposed types or those that have already done fairly well in the pattern.
Mecca’s Angel has finished in front – at York on the soft – of the early defector from today’s field, Excel’s Beauty, who has collateral form with Group 2 animals.
3.25 Ayr Phew! At last a race beyond sprint distances! Front-running Scatter Dice should test their stamina. The ground should test it, too, if there’s been any more rain by this hour!
Flashman has form on firm and soft and has the beating of most of this field, barring Face Value and Albert Bridge, who fought out a neck finish at Leopardstown last backend, with the boy Brennan’s 3lb claim making the difference on the line.
Neither horse has impressed since and, though Albert Bridge has a couple of pounds to help him claw back that neck deficit, Face Value had sheer courage on his side when he gamely got up to win that day in Ireland.
Thanks to a punter-friendly list of offers in the BETDAQ orange, I can back the two best priced, Flashman (7.8) and Face Value (9.0), and cover with a small saver stake on Albert Bridge.
4.00 Ayr Bronze Cup Back to the hell-for-leather! Notice that, even this second spill (the Silver is run before the Gold tomorrow) of a three-way divide of the Ayr Gold Cup entries, is class 2.
Again the two topweights are claimed off, and 10 apprentices in all – more than a third of this card – get their chance to shine up the Bronze.
Until we get our wrist slapped and wallet burned, and know better, we can only assume a low-stalls bias. The South Ayrshire Cup result will help us decide.
Right Touch (13.5 on BETDAQ at time of writing) and Tidal’s Baby (claimed off but 20.0) have done well in better company recently, and I shall ‘leave a pound’ on Personal Touch (30.0) with Samantha Bell taking 7lb off the back of a 7f winner who goes up with the pace. So I’m, literally, going for a Touch here. Twice.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points)
BET 3.3pts win DAMAAH, and 2.2pts win KENNY THE CAPTAIN (1.50 Ayr)
BET 4.3pts win AETNA and 1.25pts win THREES GRAND (2.20 Ayr)
BET 2.7pts win SAMBA KING (3.05 Newbury) and 1.2pts win (stakes saver) FRENCH NAVY (3.05 Newbury)
BET 6.5pts win MECCA’S ANGEL (2.50 Ayr)
BET 3pts win FLASHMAN and 2.5pts win FACE VALUE (3.25 Ayr)
BET 1.6pts win RIGHT TOUCH, 1pt win and place TIDAL’S BABY, 0.6pts win and place PERSONAL TOUCH (4.00 Ayr)
BET 10pts win (nap) TAWHID and 1.5pts win and place ENROL (4.50 Newbury)
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