DAQMAN TAKES A LUCKY 27.0 SHOT AT BRONZE: Not long left in the season for value hunters as Daqman leads Pricewise 68-22 (now + 90 over -116 to single-unit stakes). Will Daqman be a lucky, lucky man taking offers up to 27.0 in the Ayr Bronze Cup today? Will it tell us more about tomorrow’s Gold Cup? (ABC updated to include the draw).
SATURDAY GOLD-CUP-ABC TOP 10
TODAY: BRONZE MEDAL, AMIGO!
INFRASTRUCTURE NEWBURY BEST
BRUTUS HAS TRIP AND GROUND
SATURDAY GOLD-CUP-ABC TOP 10
REVISED Ayr Gold Cup ABC guide (includes E = draw), following the official declarations and stalls positions: For key, see Wednesday column.
ABCDE Growl Second to Brando in this race in 2016.
ABCEX Teruntum Star 2017 Gt St Wilfrid/Coral Sprint double
ABC George Bowen Fifth in the Stewards Cup.
ABDE Baron Bolt Two wins out of three since July.
ABDE Gunmetal Won Great St Wilfrid.
ABDE Son Of Rest Group-1 Flying Five runner-up.
ABEX Major Jumbo Third in the Wokingham.
ABE Justanotherbottle Short-head defeat Stewards Cup.
ABDE Muntadab Down the field in the Silver Cup
ADEX Aces One-time Group performer.
TODAY: BRONZE MEDAL, AMIGO!
4.10 Ayr (Bronze Cup) Horses up with the pace, racing down the centre, had the advantage at Ayr yesterday, but with race times deteriorating from an early 6-10 seconds slower than average to 13 and even 19 seconds slow late in the day.
The last time (in 2016) that these Bronze, Silver and Gold races were run at Ayr, the winners by stall were 5, 8, 8, a bias to low numbers right through this two-day series of sprints.
The low half of the Bronze Cup draw today features front-runners Robero (from the one stall) and Gabrial The Devil (out of 10), while high numbers are likely to be towed by Kenny The Captain (out of 20), so not a lot of pace on either side.
Three of the three-year-olds have won on soft – Captain Jameson, John Kirkup and Lucky Lucky Man – but only one second-season animal has ever won this Bronze.
The four-year-olds Yes You and Tawny Port are soft-surface winners but in lower-class handicaps.
Start Time, who usually wins at 7f and 1m, likes plenty of cut and needs it if he is to claw back the speedier types. My Amigo was third in the big-field Bold Lad sprint at the Curragh on Sunday.
Dalton’s dam’s side loved soft ground but his sire’s progeny don’t, and Dalton’s form on a soft or good-to-soft surface is 300 but on good or good to firm since those days is 1412.
Pour La Victoire has had a sensational run (1232123111) on all types of ground and for not much punishment from the handicapper, with Poppy Bridgwater reducing his weight by 7lb (but now only 5lb).
Tommy G is only 3lb higher than when winning the Stewards Cup Consolation and can cope with the deep surface, according to connections.
Paddy Power needs things to drop right but his sire (Pivotal) and dam’s sire (Barathea) provide a double dose of soft-ground DNA, and his stable won two of the first three runnings of the Bronze.
VERDICT: My Amigo thrives on racing. He needs a fast-run 6f which he stays better than most. Start Time has also done well at 7f and likes today’s conditions. Both are drawn low; both were around 12.0 on BETDAQ early mouse.
On the high-stalls side, Lucky Lucky Man (27.0) is with the right yard, cantered up on ‘heavy’ giving weight away in a nursery at this time last year and has one of the keys to winning this: an apprentice taking off a lump of weight.
INFRASTRUCTURE NEWBURY BEST
2.20 Newbury The handicapper can help us here. He may have overreacted in hiking Genetics 12lb for being given an easy lead in one of those musical-jockeys Shergar Cup races.
Pacify stole another slow-run race at York and has never looked likely to play up. Communique failed his previous attempt at 1m 4f and has had stalls trouble.
The stayer Platitude has Jason Watson booked but needs a strong gallop for this trip and carries more lead than a church roof.
Not So Sleepy and Alternative Fact seem to need rain, so it looks a good opportunity for the unexposed Infrastructure, with Ryan Moore booked.
BRUTUS HAS TRIP AND GROUND
3.05 Ayr (Harry Rosebery Stakes) A double-figure stall has never won this, and the last four winners had already been seen in Pattern company.
Richard Fahey has two that fit the stats – star player in the Spring, Cosmic Law, and Flawless Jewel – while Junius Brutus (5.8 on BETDAQ) should relish a return to the minimum on soft for a stable in cracking form, and Vintage Brut may get Goodwood revenge on Life Of Riley.
3.25 Newbury (Haynes, Hanson & Clark) Ducketts Grove turned over a Ballydoyle odds-on shot at Cork in August which redeemed itself by slamming a big field next time out. Silvestre De Sousa booked and the ballyhooed Beat le Bon making a price for us (4.7 on BETDAQ).
3.35 Ayr (Scottish Fillies’ Sprint) As if we don’t have enough sprints at Ayr! Soft-ground grey Darkanna (11.5 BETDAQ offers) has waited in the wings during the dry summer and could bounce back in the autumn conditions.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.20 Newbury (win 20)
BET 6pts win INFRASTRUCTURE
3.05 Ayr (win 30)
BET 6.25pts win (nap) JUNIUS BRUTUS
3.25 Newbury (win 20)
BET 5.5pts win DUCKETT’S GROVE
3.35 Ayr (win 20)
BET 2pts win and place DARKANNA
4.10 Ayr (win 50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 4.5pts win MY AMIGO
BET 4.5pts win START TIME
BET 2pts win and place LUCKY LUCKY MAN
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