12.5 BULL’S-EYE BET ON BRONZE CUP DAY AT AYR: A tricky second day at Ayr, including the Bronze Cup, and open races at Newbury. Daqman relies on Tim Easterby for the Bronze after his incredible 3,977-1 treble at Ayr yesterday but the bull’s-eye bet is reserved for William Haggas, who has a 75% strike rate at Ayr and a 12.5 lone raider today. The nap was around 2-1 this morning. Headlines:
🔹 HUMANITARIAN GOES WELL FRESH
🔹 ANOTHER CHANCE TO 12.5 DANCIN
🔹 EASTERBY TEAM HAS BEEN FLYING
🔹 CONSOLATION DAY FOR KINROSS
LOOK OUT FOR GOLD AND SILVER HITS TOMORROW: It’s the Silver and the Gold at Ayr tomorrow, and Daqman’s had 20.0 and 25.0 BETDAQ hits in recent years (see yesterday’s list in the Daqman Archive). Can he do it again?
HUMANITARIAN GOES WELL FRESH
⭕ 2.30 Newbury Scarlet Dragon usually wins for Hollie Doyle but I’ll allow Jim Crowley is not a bad substitute! A drifter in the market this morning though, even allowing for three withdrawals.
BETDAQ 5.1 offer Humanitarian won both his races when fresh before attempting two Derbys (the Epsom Derby and the King Edward V11 Stakes, Ascot Derby).
Has obviously had a problem in the last 455 days and gelded before making this return at this much lower level.
⭕ 2.45 Ayr (Harry Rosebery Stakes) Winners of this usually have plenty of experience but collateral form makes it hard to resist one-run-one-win Bickerstaffe (around 2-1 this morning), and Karl Burke keeps their form well.
Bickerstaffe scored going away at Hamilton from subsequent easy Beverley scorer Cottam Lane, with the third, Burning Cash, a 150-1 no-hoper in the Flying Childers but beaten only a length and a half by the winner. Might not want the ground to dry up too much.
ANOTHER CHANCE TO 12.5 DANCIN
⭕ 3.20 Ayr (Scottish Sprint) This big-field fillies’ Listed could give us some idea of any draw bias in the track (where is the faster ground?) but the two years of this have seen the field converge in a central arrow formation. Both winners raced close up.
Trainer ‘Fozzy’ Stack, who brought two over from Tipperary for this is left with American Lady, after Back To Brussels had to be withdrawn overnight.
American Lady was runner-up in a similar race to this on the course in June to the subsequent Nunthorpe second, Que Amoro, but has been huge prices (50-1 and 66-1) either side of that as if that result was a flash in the pan.
Dancin Inthestreet, beaten favourite in her last two handicap starts, is expected to appreciate the Ayr track where her trainer, William Haggas is 3-4. This is his only runner today but hopefully we have Addeybb back tomorrow.
‘Dancin’ will be suited by the easier surface, like the one she had at Royal Ascot when third, denied a clear run, to four-time winner Art Power and Keep Busy, Group-3 scorer at Naas and half-a-length runner-up in the Flying Five at the Curragh last weekend.
She was also third on the soft at Newmarket (July Course), a length off Exceptional, who is now 5lb better off. But Dancin Inthestreet was drawn out wide that day and must be given another chance at 12.5 on BETDAQ this morning.
Last Empire, fourth in this last year, was runner-up in the Beverley Bullet (soft), half a length in front of Keep Busy, which makes her a big threat to Dancin Inthestreet.
Dandy’s Beano (stall 4) should tow along the low numbers, including Exceptional, but there is plenty of pace on from high stalls, where you’ll find Dancin Inthestreet (10) and Last Empire (16)
EASTERBY TEAM HAS BEEN FLYING
⭕ 3.55 Ayr (Bronze Cup) In the Gold, Silver and Bronze put together only one winner of the 30 in 10 years has been older than six. Leading trainer is Richard Fahey whose Mr Lupton is likely favourite for ‘Gold’ tomorrow.
Fahey’s multiple entries are irritating to the punter but you can understand it in races like this, hoping to get at least one drawn where the action is, whether low or high.
If age is one of the criteria, he has just Alben Spirit (stall 18) for us to consider in the Bronze; his two others are aged seven and eight.
But Alben Spirit has a penalty and whether a high stall is the place to be depends on the latest stats (revealing any ground issues) and on the pace. I prefer the Tim Easterby stable (see Daqman Archive for Monday, September 7), getting around 7-1 each of two.
Easterby’s Flying Pursuit (coming out of 24) bolted in front at Doncaster last week and, though he’s seven, he’s dangerous, down a stone and a half for a long losing run which includes third in the Gold Cup and sixth in the Silver Cup off higher marks.
Erich Bloch (19) is a front-runner who will help shake off the enemy but he has won only his maiden (1-14), always a bad sign.
On the other side, Easterby has the 2019 winner, Music Society (stall 7 this year, 9 last) running off the same mark he won from. Well backed this morning.
Alben Spirit’s penalty gives middle-drawn Abstemious a chance: 4lb better off for the half-length that separated them at York, and he has cheekpieces first time to help.
Abstemious is one of three Nigel Tinkler runners but the stable is struggling on 1-35.
Blinkers are back on John Kirkup, whose form at Ayr since last autumn is 121 but all on soft-heavy ground, so drying day is a worry.
Jim Goldie (two runners) had 10 consecutive losers at Ayr yesterday. John Quinn scored on the opening day but Melody King has won only his maiden.
CONSOLATION DAY FOR KINROSS
⭕ 4.15 Newbury Kinross is worth a bet (BETDAQ 4.9) in this modest Listed. He was in my horses-to-follow list, pretensions of a place in the Fortune Cookies. I dropped him when I was warned he hadn’t grown much.
But the Kingman colt has shown plenty to Ralph Beckett at home and has been aimed at 2,000 Guineas and Prix Jean Prat, both Group 1.
Good effort until soft going found him out at Haydock the last day, and this could be his consolation on the right ground and, seemingly, the right trip of 7f.
The Stoute runner, Jovial, has drifted this morning and the Charlie Appleby duo, Glorious Journey and D’bai, have to overcome a slump in the stable’s fortunes.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.30 Newbury (win 20)
BET 5pts win HUMANITARIAN
2.45 Ayr (win 20)
BET 10pts win (nap) BICKERSTAFFE
3.20 Ayr (win 50, win 10)
BULL’S-EYE BET: 4.25pts win DANCIN INTHESTREET
BET 4.25pts win LAST EMPIRE
3.55 Ayr (win 30)
BET 4.25pts win FLYING PURSUIT
BET 4.25pts win MUSIC SOCIETY
4.15 Newbury (win 20)
BET 5ts win KINROSS
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