THE BANKER IS IN FORM FOR ASCOT: Daqman landed three winning bets yesterday, with Bit Of A Puzzle (WON 1-2) at banker stakes, plus Kylemore Lough (WON 5-4) and For Good Measure (WON 4-11) in a double with the banker. There is another maximum-stakes bet today at Ascot.
BIG-RACE VALUE HUNT TOMORROW: Look out tomorrow at Ascot for the Long Walk Hurdle, The Ladbroke and the Silver Cup at Ascot plus the Tommy Whittle at Haydock in another value challenge between Daqman and Pricewise, with the current score for the season (Daqman 12, Pricewise 4), overall 258-99.
MINSTREL PLAY ON STAMINA GROUNDS
12.50 Ascot Close championship rivals for so long, Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson, rarely seem to meet head on these days, and are wide apart in the trainers’ table.
The toe-to-toe scraps between them simply haven’t happened since the Spring festivals. Quiet as he has been recently, Nicholls has already hauled in a million this season, whereas winners for archrival Henderson have grossed just £287, 960.
But compare Henderson’s current four wins from 11 starters in the last two weeks with Nicholls three from 49, and that’s one reason to be on Minstrel Royal: 18.5 on BETDAQ early mouse.
Another is that, as a Kayf Tara out of a Bustino mare, Minstrel Royal steps up in trip for his hurdles debut with a mouth-watering pedigree to make his mark in stamina tests.
Fly Du Charmil (strongly supported this morning) and Kerrow bring better bumper form to the race, and Nicholls saddles Semper Invicta.
But, on breeding, the other one I like is Colin Tizzard’s Points winner, Valhalla, who traces back to top marathon hurdles winners and a Grand National hero. Likely lad for the future.
1.20 Ascot It should be a good day for punters who are quick off the mark here: in total, the first two races have had just one winner each bigger than 5-1 or so in their recent history, none in double figures.
On all public form, the soft ground seems to be against Ballybolley, and Ink Master, while Too Much Too Soon is still a maiden and Hollywoodien may need more time since his move from France.
Yesterday’s Ludlow winner Sir Valentino, was 10lb better than Bodega over hurdles at Leicester in November and about the same in front of Ozzy Thomas in a Ludlow chase earlier in the month.
Another horse key to this race is Ashcott Boy, who only just overhauled Blades Lad at Sedgefield for the middle leg of a hat-trick. In fact, Blades Lad was the ‘moral’, giving 5lb but beaten only a length.
All Together ran them into submission at Bangor last month and drops back into novice company here, but hiked 12lb. At 6.4 the win on BETDAQ thgis morning, with three chances of a place return from nine runners.
MERCUREY IS RISING FOR NICHOLLS
1.55 Ascot Yanworth has had his Exeter form boosted by success for the second and third and his Warwick win by the runner-up, Paul Nicholls’ Le Prezien.
He should have too many guns for Stratford and Southwell winners, Charbel and Aqua Dude, though All Set To Go may be a tougher target.
The grey, who was Grade 3 on the Flat, scored by six lengths over hurdles on the first day of the month, beating nothing well, and is from the same stable as Le Prezien.
Once Paul Nicholls is back in swinging form, we’re going to be saying how well his recent winners did in scoring when the yard was under a cloud.
Yanworth and All Set To Go, huge at 8.2 on BETDAQ this morning, could be special, though the odds-on Yanworth looks classier at this stage.
More pros and cons in that, for six years running, the race has gone to a penalised horse with 11st 7lb., but four-year-olds have won four out of the last five.
I’m going to assume that – after the Ditcheat double on Wednesday – the Nicholls fortunes are turning, and I shall ‘cheat’ by backing All Set To Go but including Yanworth in my Daq Multiples. That should trap the winner, one way or another!
2.30 Ascot Thomas Brown was impressive in his first chase here at Ascot in November but was already in the form book as a stone better horse over hurdles than the runner-up.
Junction Fourteen has won two chases out of two but, in the first, beat a horse that lost his next four starts and, in the second, the runner-up had breathing difficulties, and he was pulled up when reappearing this week.
It will be a bigger shock for the Nicholls stable than for any of their losers in the last month of doldrums if Le Mercurey is beaten. He came from France with god-like status, and is worshipped to the point of idolatry at Ditcheat, looking the part on style, jumping and stamina at Plumpton.
If Le Mercurey runs to the level of his form – never mind the level of belief – he should be shorter than the 3.3 I see in the BETDAQ orange this morning. Only the race itself will tell if I am right to return to my own belief in Nicholls while the stable’s prices are inflated because of its suspect form.
3.05 Ascot Gordon Elliott, who has the De Plotting Shed in the 3.40 bumper, has switched his recent Punchestown runner-up Woodford Island from a novices’ handicap tomorrow to this shorter conditional-jockeys’ race, whereas Duke Des Champs is thought to be needing further today than for his Market Rasen success.
Crazy Jack , Sebastian Beach and Shadarpour have won their races on a much better surface than today’s, while Pithivier has been hit for a 13lb rise in the wake of his Southwell romp. Goodbye Dancer may need a confidence restorer after his fall.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points at BETDAQ offers, except banker settled at SP)
BET 1pts win and place MINSTREL ROYAL, and 1.5pts win (stakes saver) FLY DU CHARMIL (12.50 Ascot)
BET 3.5pts win and place ALL TOGETHER(1.20 Ascot)
BET 2.5pts win and place ALL SET TO GO (1.55 Ascot)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) LE MERCUREY (2.30 Ascot)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 4 x 2pts win treble and 1pt win acca Fly Du Charmil (12.50 Ascot), Yanworth (1.55 Ascot), Le Mercurey (2.30 Ascot), De Plotting Shed (3.40 Ascot)
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