ONE RULER 2,000 GUINEAS FAVOURITE ON BETDAQ EXCHANGE: Punters last night plunged on a 2,000 Guineas colt that wasn’t even at the races yesterday after Master Of The Seas beat Charlie Appleby stablemate La Barrossa in the Craven Stakes. The assumption is that the same set-up has Futurity runner-up One Ruler as it’s main hope waiting at home for the big day. It was tight at the top of the BETDAQ exchange market: 5.9 One Ruler, 6 St Mark’s Basilica, 6.8 Wembley.
WHERE THE CORAL SCOTTISH NATIONAL WINNER COMES FROM: The Classic-trials action today moves from Newmarket to Newbury, which also sees the start of the Coral Scottish Grand National meeting at Ayr. Newbury and Ayr then take a day off on Saturday until Sunday, with such a feast of racing that day that Daqman checks out a winning seam in the National for an early look at the form.
DOLLAR HAS QUALITY NATIONAL FORM
⭕ 3.35 Ayr, Sunday (Coral Scottish Grand National, 4m) With one exception – and he had won it the year before – winners in the seven years up to the last renewal in 2019 were all outsiders: 12-1, 14-1, 25-1 (twice), 33-1 and 40-1.
Today’s weights exactly match the ratings of the 2016 race when a 14-1 shot beat 25-1, 14-1 and 20-1 rated respectively 146, 135, 149, 142.
Using those figures as my paradigm (maximum age 11) reduces Sunday’s race to the following (D=winner over 3m 2f plus; G =winner on good ground):
147 Sam’s Adventure (D) In fine form over the last year, but all on soft-heavy and hiked his rating 18lb. Won the Tommy Whittle at Haydock and the Eider Chase at Newcastle.
146 Notachance (D) A youngster (he’s only seven) who’s risen through the ranks with back-to-back wins at the turn of the year, both on soft, including the Warwick Classic. Forget his last run when he was found to be lame. Stable plotted Her Indoors to win at Cheltenham on Thursday.
145 Dingo Dollar (G) Third (2018) and then fifth (2019) in the Ladbrokes Trophy but sole chase win above novice level was at Newcastle (3m) on the last day.
145 Highland Hunter (D) Graded placed over hurdles. Novice-chase winner on heavy who was fifth in the Midlands Grand National the last day.
144 Mighty Thunder (D) (G) Raised a stone for winning the Edinburgh Grand National in February and only a length defeat in the Midlands Grand National in March.
144 Soldier Of Love (D) (G) Four straight wins over fences on lower-grade tracks before runner-up to Galvin in quality novice chase at Cheltenham in the autumn. Pulled up on soft ground after.
143 Oldgrangewood (G) Cheltenham Grade-3 winner (2m 4f) January last year and fourth there in Stable Plate at the festival but moderate form since, though stable has had a good run.
142 Some Chaos (D) (G) 50% strike rate in 10 chases includes two class-2 successes. Likes the better ground but untried in top company.
142 The Dutchman Not form figures but mostly form letters in his last six starts: PU02FU. Unseated rider in the Eider Chase.
140 Eurobot The slower the ground the better, says jockey Sean Flanagan. The slower the other horses the better, too.
140 The Hollow Ginge Another with letters after his name: PU4UP. If only he’d run as he did in the Ladbrokes Trophy (stayed on fourth behind Cloth Cap).
139 Big River (D) (G) Fourth in the 2019 Ultima at the Cheltenham Festival, then fifth in this Scottish National behind Takingrisks, but has won only a small race on heavy in the last three years.
137 Chapel Stile (G) Stablemate of Takingrisks. Not much form to go on but his half-brother Rathvinden won the NH Chase at Cheltenham and was third in the Grand National.
137 Coup De Pinceau (D) (G) Moved from Paul Nicholls before his Mandarin sixth (first-time visor) and Taunton marathon win in March.
HURRICANE TO FORCE ISSUE
⭕ 3.25 Newbury A class 3 in name but it’s a stone fired certainty that many of these will be competing in Black Type events in the future as it looks stacked full of potential.
Not least of which my selection Hurricane Lane who made an impressive winning debut here in October. A son of Frankel, the quicker conditions shouldn’t pose a problem and it’s not surprising to see he is well entered up – including the Derby and the Epsom trial next week which presumably he misses in favour of this. The Appleby yard remain in good form with 4 winners from their last 19.
At the time of writing the BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE market is headed up by Maximal despite his having 6lb to find (if official ratings are to be believed) and coming here on the back of being a beaten favourite last time out here in a Group 3 when the soft ground looked a legitimate excuse.
The Sir Michael Stoute trained runner had previously put some good runs together, including an impressive success at Sandown when long odds-on.
It’s impossible to dismiss readily any runner from Team Gosden at present so the filly Senita needs a mention. Her best run came on soft ground at Redcar and she faces a much stiffer challenge here. On the balance of what we’ve seen, she might struggle against her rivals.
FINE CHANCE FOR DEFINING
⭕ 3.50 Ayr Defining Battle can give the Skelton’s another winner as the Scottish Grand National meeting gets underway this afternoon.
The five-year-old has shown plenty of promise in just two starts and the form of his second to Camprond at Taunton was given a massive boost at Aintree last week when that rival was a half length second to Rowland Ward in a class 2 handicap hurdle.
A starting handicap mark of 122 for Defining Battle looks fair enough and he makes more appeal than the rather exposed Dino Velvet who won this back in 2018 but his recent form looks modest.
TASFEEQ NAP AT ODDS AGAINST
⭕ 6.40 Bath I wasn’t expecting odds-against about Tasfeeq here.
The Marcus Tregoning trained runner showed promise on debut at Goodwood before finding Alenquer too good at Newbury. Alenquer went on to finish second in a Listed race at Haydock and all of that form adds up to Tasfeeq looking over qualified in this company.
Tregoning is currently 0-5 but that includes two neck seconds so I’m not sure there are any problems on that front.
Chief BETDAQ rival Mummy’s Boy doesn’t bring the same level of form to the table from the all-weather so will need to improve for the switch to grass.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 10 points)
BET 3.5pts win HURRICANE LANE (3.25 Newbury)
BET 3.7pts win DEFINING BATTLE (3.50 Ayr)
BET 7.2pts win (nap) TASFEEQ (6.40 Bath)
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