FOUR, FIVE, SIX.. NOW EIGHT WINS! Daqman capped his sequences of four, five and six wins in a day over the weekend and on Wednesday, when he landed eight bets yesterday, including a Newbury run of 1112111. The great eight in race order were:
WON 1-8 Jollyallan (treble up)
WON 2-1 Woodford County
WON 7-4 Vazaro Delafayette
WON 5-2 Ned Stark
WON 9-4 L’Ami Serge (nap)
WON (lay) Le Mercurey, 0
WON (place lay) Albert Herring, 0
WON (place lay) Dangerous Age, 0
FOUR NAPS AND FIVE LAYS UP: Only last Wednesday Daqman was celebrating 20 winning bankers from 27 selections. His fabulous four days in the latest winning spree have included four naps out of six and five consecutive lays. Wins per day were:
SIX on Saturday (banker nap Ballycasey won 4-6)
FOUR on Sunday (nap Free Expression won 11-10)
FIVE on Wednesday (banker nap Smiles For Miles won 4-5)
EIGHT yesterday (nap L’Ami Serge won 9-4)
SWEET SMELL OF ‘SUCCES’ IN KING STABLE
THE GOOD: This column warned you on Wednesday of ‘a whisper that Sprinter Sacre will not be ready for the Tingle Creek’. The news appears in the Racing Post today.
That was a tip from one of my colleagues, who clearly has his ear to the ground, not for the first time putting me wise. As I forecast, it’s now there to lose for Balder Succes, whose Alan King stable also has Smad Place in tomorrow’s Hennessy.
THE BAD: The idea of pre-empting the Hennessy decs with a bet on Hadrian’s Approach was not the follow up to my last year’s 20-1 winner that I had hoped for.
Bad timing by me but also emphasises the point I’ve been making about the concentration of quality at weekends now. If I publish the ABC guide early in the week, it’s full of non-runners. If I do it on Friday, it clashes for space with, usually, the only other good day outside most weekends.
But only a point or two lost and the race still to play for tomorrow with 256 points in the Bull’s-Eye kitty after Balbriggan (WON 4-1 from 13.5). And I hope the ABC guide still comes in useful.
THE UGLY: There have been some ugly-looking falls in the first few weeks of the jumps season, some from first-time-out hurdlers and chasers.
I always add an extra point to the price I need in novice events though, in fact, since the jockeys tend to be more careful with – and wary of – novices, they are not the biggest culprits.
Don’t leave your horses too short of peak fitness, trainers, though, granted, you are aiming for a high for a specific race. And jockeys, watch those heels when in a pack: riding too close is the cause of serious falls.
PENDRA AND A P TO PUNCH THEIR WEIGHT
12.25 Newbury It’s still not easy to take this meeting seriously enough for value stakes-betting. For instance, the last two winners of this first race won only one more event from 13 starts, and that a novice hurdle.
The last two winners of the next (the 12.55 chase for conditionals) have totalled just one win in 21 attempts. Both races are class 3 in name only.
Alan King has won this opener twice since 2006, including with tomorrow’s Hennessy hope Smad Place, but Karezak has to carry a penalty.
Punters will be nervous of him, as a bridesmaid on the Flat (sequence 22222) but, if not exactly transformed, he seemed to put it all in on the last day when scoring at Chepstow on his hurdles debut.
Paul Nicholls (three wins since 2005) saddles Old Guard, a half-brother to the Group-1 Flat winner, Thistle Bird. Said to love jumping, though he was a keen sort on the Flat.
12.55 Newbury The jockey can’t come without the horse but the punter will feel most comfortable with a conditional of the stature of James Best (Highway Code), who was completing a hat-trick when Ray Diamond won yesterday.
Trevor Whelan (seven winners in the last fortnight) is entrusted with Comeonginger’s four-timer attempt. Michael Nolan (Quick Decision), Conor Shoemark (Barenger) and Killian Moore (Olympian Boy) are also experienced.
1.30 Newbury This is a better race, but qualifiers in this Pertemps series are always hard to fathom, albeit there were four winning favourites before the spell was broken by 33-1 and 9-1 scorers in the last two seasons.
This is probably Tagrita’s last hurdle before she goes chasing, unless she does something extraordinary here. Trainer Paul Nicholls is testing the tongue-tie.
Unique De Cotte came back after 21 months’ off with a tendon injury to score unconvincingly at Cheltenham but this step up to 3m should suit, and the slower pace will help his ungainly jumping style. Another worry is the bounce factor.
Tullyesker Hill and Rev It Up run with weight rises but the handicapper has not entirely caught up with Little Boy Boru, an enthusiastic sort whom he reckons 3lb better than his penalty, and Unique De Cotte is going up 10lb.
I can’t entirely trust Unique De Cotte at the price and shall put him in small-stakes Daq Multiples but I can’t see why Little Boy Boru should be 10.0, with Tagrita far too easy to back for a Nicholls and, indeed, nothing else wanted except the favourite.
But, as ever, keep your Daq up! The market may change throughout the day and your first position may be the key to winning on the race, which is far more important than trying to pick one horse as the winner.
2.05 Newbury (Berkshire Novices’ Chase) The hitherto mundane Newbury two days – apart from the Gerry feilden – could gain stature here. A small but select field for this produced Denman in 2006.
In 2011, subsequent RSA (and the following season’s Gold Cup) winner Bobs Worth beat Cue Card, and two years ago Dynaste prefaced his Jewson second and Mildmay win with an easy success.
At first glance, this year’s race looks one-sided, with only Saphir Du Rheu coming to it with the hurdles rating of a Dynaste (161) or Bobs Worth (150).
In fact, neither would have been a match for Saphir, the Lanzarote winner, who reached 165, and is a stone clear today on Racing Post ratings. The doubt here is his fitness in the mud.
Saphir is the ‘apple of my eye’ (quote unquote Paul Nicholls) and was always going to be a chaser but is likely to need the run.
Dell’ Arca won last year’s Greatwood and finished on 145 but it’s an experiment putting this small, nippy animal over fences, albeit his first attempt was in at the deep end, Cheltenham.
Coneygree was rated higher than Dell’ Arca when a sequence winner in 2012 and is another chasing type but it’s doubtful he can score straight back into the fray after injury.
Deep Trouble, who launched his chase career with a smart effort over too short a trip on the last day, could be the thorn in all their sides. His hurdles career ended on a high of 147 when he won a Grade B at the Punchestown Festival. But his seven times second from 16 starts is worrying.
2.40 Newbury Faugheen’s Ascot success has been the only bright spot in Willie Mullins’ current raids on English soil, and his overall chase record here is abysmal (5-85 for 6% in five seasons).
That said, the horse doesn’t know that, and The Paparrazi Kid was clear in the BETDAQ exchange market this morning. He is 121 after long breaks and has won twice over similar trips.
When the Kid scored at Punchestown, it was proof that he doesn’t need to be at his beloved Limerick (three wins there) but what ‘flummoxed’ Mullins (his word) was how the horse took to the heavy ground.
Sound Investment stepped out of novice company to win at Sandown recently but needs more improvement here (up 7lb), and it may be significant that all his success has come right-handed. Today is anti-clockwise.
Lamool has done no wrong – except win too easily and take on a 12lb rise! – but his yard is badly off strike, with 22 consecutive losers.
The one I like is Pendra (A P McCoy), unlucky not to win at the Cheltenham festival (might have won but for hitting the last). Form after long breaks 111 and the flagship horse for the Charlie Longsdon this season.
Looks nicely in here off a weight at which McCoy is using his full body power with little or no dead-weight in the saddle..
HAVE A FLUTTER WITH DAQ MULTIPLES
DAQMAN’S BETS
A poor day for punting unless all the good things win. Have a flutter with some Daq Multiples but the only reliable race for me is Pendra v The Paparazzi Kid, and I’m not taking big chances there either. Tomorrow we will hopefully return to grabbing big value. With no rain forecast and the tracks drying out a bit, we might get more competitive fields and, therefore, more open markets. I hope so.
BET 2pts win and place LITTLE BOY BORU (1.30 Newbury)
BET 6pts win (nap) PENDRA with 2pts win (stakes saver) THE PAPARRAZI KID (2.40 Newbury)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 1pt win yankee Karezak (12.25 Newbury), Unique De Cotte (1.30 Newbury), Saphir Du Rheu (2.05 Newbury), Pendra (2.40 Newbury).
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