HE RECOGNISED A 17-2 WINNER: Daqman stepped in on a losing streak for 100% stable records, hoping to pick one at Wolver to break their duck yesterday. Result: Recognition (form figures 034040) WON at 17-2, which followed Wednesday’s hole-in-one bet, Ceann Sibheal (WON 7-2).
RACE-BY-RACE AW CHAMPIONS: Today Daqman presents a comprehensive stats-and-analysis guide to the Lingfield AW Championships, with a win, place and lay for each of the seven title races.
FOUR-TIMER CLASH FOR VALUE: With just eight days left before the start of the Flat (turf), Daqman leads Pricewise 40-15 in feature-race value bets over the jumps, on target to defeat his Racing Post adversary for the fifth consecutive season. They clash today in the 1.40, 2.10, 2.40 and 4.45 Lingfield.
STATS STARTER TO THE AW CHAMPIONSHIPS
STATS (2 years):
TRAINERS (with runners today) Charlie Appleby 3, and one each for Andrew Balding, Pia Brandt, Marcus Botti, Roger Charlton, Richard Fahey, William Haggas, Gay Kelleway, Jeremy Noseda,.
JOCKEYS Adam Kirby 2, and one each for George Baker, James Doyle and Luke Morris.
AGE OF WINNERS Four-year-olds 5, six 3, five 2
DRAW: stalls eight (4), seven (2), five (1), four (2), three (1), two (1), one (2)
CURRENT: TRAINERS IN FORM
1.40 Amanda Perrett (Saucy Minx).
2.10 Dean Ivory (Lancelot Du Lac), Stuart Williams (Realize)
2.40 Amanda Perrett (Blue Surf), Mark Johnston (Notarised), Ian Williams (Monaleen), Ralph Beckett (Moonrise Landing)
3.15 Stuart Williams (Lunar Deity), Roger Varian (Mindurownbusiness), Mark Johnston (Mister Universe),
3.45 William Haggas (Battalion), Mark Johnston (Fire Fighting and Watersmeet), John Gosden (Maverick Wave), Pia Brandt (Metropol).
HOT-POT ‘ICE’ IS DRAWN OUT IN THE COLD
1.40 Lingfield (Fillies and Mares, 102% BETDAQ orange) Cold As Ice may be as hot as the hype suggests, as a Group-1 horse in a conditions race.
But South African form, even at the highest level, rarely translates to UK, and she was made to work for her sole success over here at Chelmsford in December by Realize, who is not even favourite for the all-aged sprint (2.10).
Cold As Ice likes to be where the action is but has to be dropped in, or used up to get a position, from a wide draw in stall 10.
Volunteer Point had what trainer Mick Channon called ‘a confidence booster’, stepped up to a mile on this course on the first day of the month.
In a bid to outrun her, Bint Dandy tried to make all that day. She has first-time blinkers now, dropping back a furlong. So she’s the likely pacesetter.
There might be something to trade in her market movements (from 29.0 on BETDAQ this morning), with Silvestre De Sousa doing the steering; she had a long-sequence of places without winning last year, and is still rated a stone behind Volunteer Point, despite that close finish between them.
The fast pace will suit Alfajer, who is also first-time blinkered, and has finished right on top of Cold As Ice at Wolver and Volunteer Point at Deauville.
BETDAQ VERDICT: William Haggas has a 43% record with four-year-olds-plus on AW this year but the 107 rating for Cold As Ice looks inflated (in fact, she’s already been dropped from the 110 she was set when she arrived here), and the form through Alfajer suggests that she is closer to Volunteer Point’s 102.
In a quality race, you’d expect a progressive four-year-old to win, and on form this the prize should fall to which one of them – Alfajer, Cold As Ice and Volunteer Point – gets the breaks. In that situation, an odds-on favourite drawn 10 is a lay. I’ll try a Triple Whammy:
WIN Volunteer Point (6.2), PLACE Alfajer (9.8), LAY Cold As Ice (1.78).
GOKEN HAS TOUCH OF CLASS AND LEE DRIVE
2.10 Lingfield (All-aged Sprint) The official ratings say that there is a difference of only 6lb among TEN of these. Now that’s not much more than a couple of lengths, depending on the ground.
In other words, in theory, the majority of this field will fit into a newly-mown suburban lawn as they finish the race. We sure need an edge!
Alben Star has won and been second in the race; Boom The Groom, Rivellino and Chookie Royal have all been third, and Intransigent fourth, while Lancelot Du Lac failed to reach the frame.
Goken, a Group performer in France before joining expert sprint-trainer Kevin Ryan, was a CD winner in a Listed here at Lingfield in November. Graham Lee booked.
The other four-year-old expected to improve is the fast-runner Lightscameraction but his best form is at 5f and his stall is in the car park.
Lancelot Du Lac is also drawn wide but beat some hot fractions from the 8 berth over the CD 15 months ago. First time over 6f, Realize should also be a big finisher if the pace is strong.
WIN Goken (3.95), PLACE Alben Star (9.8), LAY Lancelot Du Lac (2.68)
BECKETT BET FOR LANDING THE MARATHON
2.40 Lingfield (Marathon) ‘It’s like getting seasick in a dust storm, belting round these turns.’ So my jockey told me when I ran one here a few years back.
Who can fight the kickback and kill the others off for stamina in this near-2m marathon? Anglophile did last year; well almost: he was a head off the winner at the line.
He won the Lingfield trial for this for the second season running in January when he accounted for Ballynanty (for the stable which beat him in the 2015 final), Blue Surf and Pearl Castle.
But five weeks earlier he had been made to look one paced by Moonrise Landing, who has officially improved 20lb in a hat-trick since October, and Ralph Beckett could again exploit the grey mare’s 5lb allowance here.
The other mare, Monaleen, is big at 29.0. Her first run back after a lay-off was also her first attempt at this trip. She was near enough to today’s likely pacemaker John Reel and Notarised in a slow-run race to suggest that she can improve for it.
But I fancy Ballynanty for the place. That second to Anglophile in the Lingfield heat for this was only the seventh race of his life, and his first in a tongue-tie.
As a four-year-old, he gets 5lb from all bar the mares yet, at that age, he’s the likely improver.
WIN Moonrise Landing (3.0), PLACE Ballynanty (7.4), PLACE LAY John Reel (4.7)
DEBT CAN BE DEFEATED BY GOOD BUSINESS
3.15 Lingfield (All-aged Mile) Mister Universe was forced to grab an early lead from stall 8 and made all here three weeks ago, but he’s pushed out even further wide in 12 today.
Mindurownbusiness was down the field in this race last year but is a much improved horse and the RaCing Post goes as far as to put top of their ratings.
He’s officially 21lb better than a year ago when one-time Lockinge-placed Sovereign Debt failed by less than a length to give him 10lb in the Ladbrokes Handicap here.
Sovereign Debt was recently a nose runner-up to Mister Universe in the Ladbrokes Wulfruna at Wolver recently. And he was the unlucky horse of this championship a year ago when a too-late run left him a quarter of a length short at the line.
It’s intriguing to see Mindurownbusiness and Sovereign Debt dloing battle again, with the Racing Post Ratings seemingly right on the collateral, that Mindurownbusiness has improved past him.
WIN Mindurownbusiness (3.35), PLACE Sovereign Debt (1.79), LAY Mister Universe (3.3)
IT’S GRENDISAR AGAIN BARRING ACCIDENT
3.45 Lingfield (Middle Distance) Grendisar overhauled Maverick Wave to take the Winter Derby last month and extended his Lingfield form figures to 2111232211.
He’s beaten all these barring Political Policy and he’s been beaten by Watersmeet anyway.
They’ve all turned out to take Grendisar on again, hoping something goes wrong for him. Maverick Wave could chase him home again
WIN Grendisar (2.18), PLACE Maverick Wave (2.18), PLACE LAY Battalion (2.14)
SPECIAL SEASON MAY FOIL FRONT-RUNNERS
4.15 Lingfield (Three-year-olds Sprint) From now until the Derby, you will face three-year-old races, for which you should hold this view of the form: this year is this year; last year was last year.
It’s a bit different with AW since you’ve seen them over the winter, and don’t really solely on two-year-old form, but the fact remains that, at any time, young horses like this can suddenly improve.
As for three-year-old handicaps, choose hanging (that’s where they leave you). It’s preferable.
Kadrizzi looked the biz until Wolowitz stopped him at Wolver. But Gracious John beats Kadrizzi on a line through Field Of Vision and might have beaten both at Chelmsford but finished lame.
4.45 Lingfield (Three-year-old Mile) I’m tipping in this one because Pricewise has done, and I have to honour the challenge.
Gay Kelleway has been handed the outside draw again. She’s got 9 of 9 (Lighstcameraction got 14 of 12 in the sprint at 2.10. Get out of that!).
Bear Faced, Cape Speed, Race Day and Sea Of Flames have all front-run so it could take some winning, with Special Season (6.4 offers) the type to benefit from all that pace
DAQMAN’S SPECIAL BETS (staked to win 20 points, except lays and multiples)
TRIPLE WHAMMY: LAY to lose 5pts COLD AS ICE, and BET 4pts win VOLUNTEER POINT, and 2pts win and place ALFAJER (1.40 Lingfield)
TRIPLE WHAMMY: LAY to lose 5pts LANCELOT DU LAC, and BET 6.6pts win GOKEN, and 2pts win and place ALBEN STAR (2.10 Lingfield)
BET 10pts win MOONRISE LANDING (2.40 Lingfield)
BET 10pts win (nap) MINDUROWNBUSINESS (3.15 Lingfield)
BET 4pts win SPECIAL SEASON (4.45 Lingfield)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 3pt win doubles and 1pt win treble MOONRISE LANDING (2.40 Lingfield), MINDUROWNBUSINESS (3.15 Lingfield), GRENDISAR (3.45 Lingfield)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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