6-4 WINNERS BECOMING A HABIT: Revolutionist (WON 6-4) saved the day at Chelmsford yesterday as the third 6-4 winner for Daqman in two days. Well, we don’t mind a winning habit!
DAY-4 CHELTENHAM COUNTDOWN: Today Daqman puts the final touches to his stats preview of Cheltenham, day by day as it will happen. It includes his 14th ante-post bet.
TOMORROW: SATURDAY SPECIAL: Spring has sprung! The key card as always is Imperial Cup day at Sandown tomorrow: it heralds Cheltenham, the Grand National and the start of the Flat (turf) season.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY: FESTIVAL FOLLIES: The real bankers at Cheltenham. Concluding Daqman’s articles on why Pricewise isn’t good for you. Beat the layers and get a double bonus on Festival winners. Daqman’s betting strategy for the meeting.
FINAL-DAY FEAST: THE ‘TABLE’ IS ALL SET ..
Good morning! And a happy lunch-break to all those who couldn’t eat their breakfast after opening Page 15 of the Racing Post today.
I’ll try to keep you abreast of the Cheltenham news after my final stats-and-facts check on the last day of the meeting, as follows:
1.30 Cheltenham, Friday (Triumph Hurdle) Horses at the front of the market look vulnerable for one reason or another.
Zubayr, Ivanovich Gorbatov and Tommy Silver all get the elbow by the stats because more than 80% triumphant in this race have had three or more previous runs. They haven’t.
The stats also knock Sceau Royal and Apples Jade because they’ve been too long away from the racecourse. The winner usually raced in February.
Ivanovich Gorbatov, Clan Des Obeaux, Let’s Dance, Fixe Le Kap, Who Dares Wins and Gibralfaro all fail because they didn’t win on their last day: 82% of winners had all won their latest start.
SPOTLIGHT Connetable Five of the last seven to triumph were French imports. Connetable (Paul Nicholls) and Footpad (Willie Mullins) were within a length and a half of each other in France.
Footpad, who was best then, has more wins over here, but Connetable – narrowly beaten first run in England by Gibralfaro – officially stepped up 11lb on that (possibly more) by winning an all-age Listed from the subsequent Kingwell Hurdle winner, Rayvin Black, who runs in tomorrow’s Imperial Cup at Sandown.
The Paul Nicholls stable was out of form until recently, so Connetable’s success was all the more commendable. As low as 8-1, and generally 9-1 and 10-1 with bookmakers, there is 14.5 to be had about Connetable on BETDAQ.
3.30 Friday, Cheltenham Gold Cup Wide open says the BETDAQ market: Don Cossack, Cue Card, Djakadam, Vautour and Don Poli all within 1.5 points of each other! But..
OUT goes Don Cossack, because he hasn’t finished first or second at the festival before (75%).
OUT goes the 10-year-old Cue Card (90% of winners are aged seven to nine).
OUT goes Djakadam because he’s fallen twice, including at Cheltenham (80% against him)
SPOTLIGHT Don Poli Denman, Bobs Worth and Lord Windermere all won the RSA Chase on their way to Gold. Don Poli fits the stats and won the RSA last year without turning a hair, the Mr Laid Back of steeplechasers.
4.10 Cheltenham, Friday (Foxhunter) Mug punters, look away now! This race is made for you, as amateurs go off far too quickly, stamina runs out and the results cluster maddeningly as follows: four winners in a row at 15-2 or less SP since 2012; but 20-1 (twice) and 33-1 from 2006 to 2008.
I once bet Andrew Franklin that a woman would not finish the race on a horse in the Grand National. I laid Victoria Pendleton’s mount, Pacha Du Polder, before her only victory under Rules.
My female critics met in the red phone-box the other day and can’t wait for me to land the hat-trick (too late, ladies; I opposed last year’s winner, Nina Carberry).
It’s Highly Unlikely that I’ll back Victoria. She’s not my Chosen Dream. I’ll be looking for an Ace High. I’ll tell you my fancy next week, on a Need To Know basis.
LAST CHANCE TO LAND A GRAND SENSATION
4.50 Cheltenham, Friday (Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Hurdle) You’d think a similar lottery would apply to this one, for jockeys who haven’t ridden 75 winners.
But, if you can spot a star in the making, aged five or six (the horse not the jockey), you can get very, very good odds.
For instance, did you back Sir Des Champs, Don Poli, Kilultagh Vic, all star chasers. If you didn’t, I know a man who did – scores of them, in fact – since they started 9-2, 7-1 and 12-1. It’s a professionals’ conditional!
5.30 Cheltenham, Friday (Grand Annual Chase) Another wide-open handicap? Yes and no. Worth saving a bit for.
It’s like this: the winners have been big prices (40-1, 20-1 and 16-1 three times) in the last five seasons but, if you’d confined your search between ratings of 140 and 145, you’d have trapped four of them.
They were all under the age of 10 and four of the five were poised in the weights between 10st 11lb and 11st 5lb. To get that fix between rating and weight is quite a turnkey.
SPOTLIGHT: Next Sensation There were 65 still in at the time of writing, but only three fit all the stats as the weights stand today: Sizing Codelco, Tennis Cap and last year’s winner, Next Sensation.
Form since he won it P0000. Quite a hidden horse, then? Not on your life. The money is down already.
Next Sensation is 9.4 favourite on BETDAQ, as I write. So have we missed the last boat? It looks that way, but I reckon there’s a real sneaky one who could be .. what shall we call him, the Last Sensation! All will be revealed next Friday.
TODAY: SOLE REASON FOR A MILITARY BET..
2.10 Sandown and 3.15 Sandown (Grand Military Gold Cup) How does form of UOP34 compare with F-0020? Not a lot of difference, in fact, between the figures preceding Old Way’s name before he won the Queen Mother Amateur Riders’ Hurdle (2.10) in 2014 and Un Prophete’s as he lines up today.
Both trained Venetia Williams; both ridden by the most successful army rider here today. Name, rank and serial number: Jody Sole, lance-bombardier, serial winner.
What applies to Connetable in my Cheltenham notes (above) is pertinent to Minellahalfcentury’s form in the gold cup: should improve for stable back to form (and for cheekpieces). In fact, Paul Nicholls has won the race five times.
I shall back the Sole rides stop at a winner: Un Prophete at 4.6 followed – if it loses – by 4.5 Minellahalfcentury. And I shall half a pone-point double just in case Jody is the sole winning army rider of the day.
2.40 Sandown What’s The Scoop? Well, four years out of six the prize scooper in this race was Nicky Henderson (What’s The Scoop) but he, and all punters, have to respect the new kid on the block, Harry Fry (Air Horse One) and Starving Marvin was a good second over CD on the last day.
The trio are within a 0.5 points parameter on BETDAQ this morning. But here’s the scoop.. The orange added up virtually to a level playing-field, when I was on line: 101%.
I was reading the other day that exchange betting is good because you get real prices for the outsides, not short change in the ‘bar.’ But here you are getting fair-do’s among the favourites.
Strikes me that, on this day of military men, we should be giving two salutes to BETDAQ. Big fields and small, big odds and short, are on parade to show the uniform fairness of this incredible way to bet.
3.50 Sandown Best race of the day. Bon Enfant and Le Boizelo have won on this course in the soft over 2m 4f. But Doctor Look Here has been hammered by the handicapper 13lb for his Taunton win. I’ll look elsewhere.
Ayala and Spencer Lea are glass horses. Both could win but you’d be nervous of their long absences and occasional form.
If his breeding is any guide, J P McManus’s Suit Yourself, a 7.2 BETDAQ best offer, should benefit from this step up in trip and tell us something about Jonjo O’Neill’s form for Cheltenham.
5.00 Sandown There’s a ghastly coincidence punt in this Anne Boleyn Novices’ Hurdle, name of Top And Drop. Talk about headless betting..
6.15 Chelmsford When the second favourite (Mr Red Clubs) is on a 20-race losing run but the favourite (Tangramm) is odds against at 2.44 on BETDAQ and it’s 8.0 bar two, you have to have a bet.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 5pts win UN PROPHETE (2.40 Sandown), if lose 8pts win MINELLAHALFCENTURY (3.15 Sandown) and 1pt win double the two
BET 5pts win and 3pts place SUIT YOURSELF (3.50 Sandown)
BET 8pts win (nap) TANGRAMM (6.15 Chelmsford)
ANTE-POST (to win 50): BET 3.7pts win CONNETABLE (Cheltenham, Triumph Hurdle, Friday)
£25 IN FREE BETS
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
