25-1 HOLYWELL WINS FOR DAQMAN AT CHELTENHAM: Smarting from a near miss with Meister Eckhart (2nd 14-1) earlier in the week, when the stablemate beat him, Daqman finally hooked his big one at the festival, Holywell (WON 25-1) yesterday, and today has similar huge offers on his bets list.
JUST LOOK AT THIS BETDAQ VALUE ON THE FINAL DAY: A ‘Hidden’ 20.0 chance, 34.0 with the hood fitted, 26.0 in the County Hurdle, 15.5 a Willie Mullins’ horse, and 24.0 a front-runner in the Martin Pipe as one for the ‘getting-out’ finale races.
TWO FOR GOLD MEDAL AT TOP OFFERS: Daqman warns against the ‘crude bait’ of the big bookies and rates the BETDAQ market the sane one for the Gold Cup. It enables him to have two decent bets, with the stakes doubled up and more because they are horses to follow.
BIG YARDS ARE JUST A LAYS TREAT: Daqman landed a lay with Dynaste yesterday, and also opposed Sam Winner as a ‘false favourite.’ He reckons there are 18 more waiting for you with Paul Nicholls and Martin Pipe so badly off strike. Read all about it in another cracking column of advice and information below.
All that glitters in the bookies’ adverts is not gold. As each big firm lays 5-1, 6-1 even 7-1 as a lure about either Bobs Worth, Sir Des Champs or Silviniaco Conti, the only sanity is on BETDAQ, where a punter-friendly 101% ‘book’ this morning revealed the true nature of the Gold Cup market. The race is wide open.
We are among the lucky ones as we go on to the orange, as this column got a good position on the race with 6.0 Silviniaco Conti ante-post on BETDAQ, without accepting any bookie’s crude bait. We need that price because of the moderate week for Paul Nicholls.
My other horse to follow for the final day, Gevrey Chambertin, must also run under a big question-mark, the poor form of the Pipe squad. Only Nicholls can come near Pipe for bad results this festival week.
Nicholls throws 12 horses at the final day and Pipe six. I wouldn’t blame you if you thought they looked like 18 lays. It’s not just that the Somerset pair have had their horses beaten but that they’ve mostly been beaten out of sight.
Apart from a surprise high from Celestial Halo yesterday, Nicholls horses went down by 33 lengths, 61, 29, 52, 37, 22 – and one pulled up – in their respective races.
Pipe got Dynaste ‘beat’, as predicted by yours truly; and then lost by 62 lengths, 33, 32, 58 and 48, plus three pulled up and one fell!
1.30 Cheltenham (Triumph Hurdle): It’s two Triumphs each in the last decade for Henderson, King and Nicholls and the Irish haven’t captured this for 11 years (Willie Mullins 2002) but they have a two-pronged attack here of high merit.
Dessie Hughes’s favourite, Our Conor, and Mullins’ Diakali have already met at Leopardstown and finished one-two. I took 14.5 Diakali on BETDAQ afterwards. Why?
If you read my piece about the stats last week, I was looking for a lightly raced sort (four runs or less) with a Group-1 Flat-winning sire. I spotted Diakali (by Sinndar) and John Quinn’s pair, Kashmir Peak (Tiger Hill) and Hidden Justice (by (Lawman).
Paul Carberry, the jockeys’ jockey of this generation, as was Jeff King in the middle of the last century, is an interesting booking for Hidden Justice (20.0 as I write). Could be anything for the Countrywide Flame stable.
Henderson’s Rolling Star is almost joint favourite with Our Conor as I write but will he act on other than the heavy ground of his two wins to date, and are two races enough experience?
Henderson has French champion jockey Jacques Ricou over here for the first-time-hooded Vasco Du Ronceray at 34.0 this morning. The hood has been a winner at the festival this week, with three winners in the ‘blinds’ yesterday.
Vasco Du Ronceray has allowed Far West, Kashmir Peak and Sametegal past him after the last hurdle in top-class races but the hood may concentrate his mind today.
BET (to win 20 points: 1pt win and place HIDDEN JUSTICE, 0,6pts win and place VASCO DU RONCERAY, and (already ante-post to win 30) 2.2pts DIAKALI at 14.5. Stakes saver: 1.6pts win OUR CONOR
2.05 Cheltenham (County Hurdle): The Irish have made a recent habit of winning this County Hurdle (they are five out of six), with winners that would come in the bottom half of this handicap off 139 or less.
Irish ayes down there include Gordon Elliott, who has won with a long-shot this week, and Tony Martin, who scored with Benefficient yesterday.
Elliott’s Shadow Catcher (26.0 on BETDAQ and first-time cheekpieces) and Martin’s Ted Veale are the right age for this. Ted Veale (12.5) is partnered by Bryan Cooper, who was on Benefficient.
Willie Mullins’ Tennis Cap is only just above this winningmost area of the ratings and may still be improving. If the rain comes, as forecast, the 15.5 will be gobbled up.
Emma Lavelle’s sound-surface horse Claret Cloak would then be inconvenienced and I have him in mind for the better ground at Aintree.
BET (to win 20 points) 1.7pts win TED VEALE, 1.3pts win TENNIS CAP, and 0.8pts win and place SHADOW CATCHER
2.40 Cheltenham (Albert Bartlett): The ground had dried up on At Fishers Cross which suited Ballycasey but will it have turned the other way with rain by this time this afternoon?
It would be another Mullins feat of training to win this, since Ballycasey has had only two runs: all eight previous winners had had at least three.
But Ruby Walsh prefers Ballycasey over Inish Island, since that one has already been beaten by At Fishers Cross. Nothing else is fancied this morning.
BET (to win 20 points) 8.3pts win AT FISHERS CROSS and 4.1pts win BALLYCASE
3.20 Cheltenham (Gold Cup) I rightly opposed Sam Winner yesterday and, if Paul Nicholls wasn’t misquoted when he said that one was his best of the week, then I need to find something to beat my own ante-post bet, Silviniaco Conti!
He’s top rated here over a previous Gold winner, Long Run. With the exception of last year’s win by a handicapper, the rating for the winner has been consistent (174-179). Only Silviniaco (175) creeps into that parameter, already reckoned 3lb ahead of Long Run
Captain Chris has form on good going of 1112114 (on soft-heavy it’s 212) and Richard Johnson was emphatic after his defeat by Cue Card: ‘Captain Chris wants good ground and I’d like to ride him in the Gold Cup.’
Bobs Worth, is 11111 on good ground 211321 with a bit of cut, having been kept to decent ground throughout his career.
Long Run is still a year younger than three of the last four winners and is the one least likely to be invonceniencde by any change in the going this afternoon.
Apart from Silviniaco, the other seven-year-old in the race, Sir Des Champs, caught my eye more than once the way the way he stayed on at the business end. In the belief that a young horse can improve and be a formidable force for two or three seasons now, it would have to be Silviniaco or Sir Des.
JACKPOT BET (to win 30 points): 7.5pts win SIR DES CHAMPS and (already ante-post) 6pts win SILVINIACO CONTI at 6.0
4.00 Cheltenham (Foxhunter) A lot of grand old hunters come to this race but, with two exceptions in the decade, you’ve needed to be on one of a single-figure age (in fact, 16 out of 22 since 1990), particularly on a sound surface.
Colman Sweeney won this last year on seven-year-old Salsify, youngest of them all to take this recently barring Cappa Bleu, who you’ll be hearing more aboiut at Aintree.
Salsify is back for more, and is the stayer of the race, whereas the length runner-up last year, Chapoturgeon, has never won this far.
The Foxhunter is a bit like the cross-country used to be: ‘same as last year, James’ and, in the belief that Salsify stands head, girth and should above them, I nap him.
BET (to win 20 points) 6.6pts win (nap) SALSIFY
4.40 Cheltenham (Martin Pipe Handicap) Willie Mullins won this two years ago with Sir Des Champs. He says the better ground would help Make Your Mark; rain would boost Loch Ard. Oh dear; here we go again. The punter’s curse is the English weather.
The Pipes have never won this but one of my horses to follow, Gevrey Chambertin, had the ground come for him this week.
If only it would stay that way, If only the Wellington team hadn’t bombed out so badly at the festival so far (even Dynaste ‘got beat’).
I get 10 points Gevrey Chambertin as my horses-to-follow stake under the rules of my published list (which also incidentally more than doubles my Gold Cup investments in Silvinaco Conti and Sir des Champs).
The trainers in form for this race with winners at the meeting are Willie Mullins, Venetia Williams, Nicky Henderson, Tony Martin, Gordon Elliott, and Nigel Twiston-Davies.
I’ll ride the bandwagon and have a hair-raiser of a front-running ride from Adam Wedge on Twiston’s horse, Double Ross, who made all here in November. He likes good ground but the forecast rain would be even better. The 24.0 is a bonus on BETDAQ.
BET (to win 20 points) 1pt win and place DOUBLE ROSS
5.15 Cheltenham (Grand Annual) Surely it’s not all over for another year! This is The Grand Getting-Out Stakes, usually won by a horse with 10st 13lb or less, aged seven to nine (10 from 13), with County Hurdle winner Alderwood the obvious choice.
Benchmark horse for this is Kingshambo, who was lucky to beat Rody when race-fit over that one. Jonjo’O Neill had a good one for this I thought. Name of Eastlake.
But he’s been taken out because there’s no way he could have beaten his conqueror at Warwick. The same. Rody.
BET (to win 20 points) 3.3pts win ALDERWOOD and 2.2pts win RODY
DAQMAN BETS SUMMARY
BET 1pt win and place HIDDEN JUSTICE, 0.6pts win and place VASCO DU RONCERAY, and (already ante-post to win 30) 2.2pts DIAKALI at 14.5. Stakes saver: 1.6pts win OUR CONOR. All 1.30 Cheltenham
BET 1.7pts win TED VEALE, 1.3pts win TENNIS CAP, and 0.8pts win and place SHADOW CATCHER (2.05 Cheltenham)
BET 8.3pts win AT FISHERS CROSS and 4.1pts win BALLYCASEY (2.40 Cheltenham)
GOLD CUP JACKPOT BETS (to win 30 points): 7.5pts win SIR DES CHAMPS and (already ante-post) 6pts win SILVINIACO CONTI at 6.0 (3.20 Cheltenham)
BET 6.6pts win (nap) SALSIFY (4.00 Cheltenham)
BET 1pt win and place DOUBLE ROSS (4.40 Cheltenham)
BET 3.3pts win ALDERWOOD and 2.2pts win RODY (5.15 Cheltenham)
HORSES TO FOLLOW: Silvinaco Conti and Sir Des Champs (3.20 Cheltenham) and Gevrey Chambertin (4.40 Cheltenham)
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