TODAY: Today is the final day of Daqman’s Tuesday-to-Friday stats and facts for Cheltenham, a daily survey one week ahead.
TOMORROW: Bulls-eye bets are back tomorrow for the Imperial Cup at Sandown by the man who won 147 points profit last weekend.
NEXT WEEK: Starting Sunday and right through the festival meeting, Daqman’s Cheltenham special: backs, lays and those famous bull’s-eyes!
CHELTENHAM’S LAYS DAY
LAYS LOGIC! Cheltenham next Friday is lays day; nice work if you have a BETDAQ account and some short prices. Here is your starter: favourites have drawn a blank in the 3.20 (for 12 consecutive years) and the 5.20 (13 years).
⭕ 1.20 Cheltenham, next Friday (Triumph Hurdle) Four-year-olds only. Favourites four out of 10, with outsiders scoring at 9-1, 12-1, 20-1 and even 100-1 in the last eight years
Winners ratings: 155, 142, 155, 140, 141 notional, 120 notional, 147, 146, 142, 139 and 91.
Trainers: Willie Mullins is on a five-timer; currently five out of six at SPs from 11-8 to 100-1.
⭕ 2.00 Cheltenham (County Hurdle) Favourites: three out of six.
Age: 5 and 6 (12/16). Weight: no more than 11st 1lb (11/15). Ratings: 138, 138, 158, 139, 146, 137, 129, 141, 134, 138 and 141. Trainers: Dan Skelton (4/10) including 33-1 twice; Willie Mullins (5/10), two of them favourite but includes 12-1 and 20-1.
⭕ 2.40 Cheltenham (Mares’ Chase) Established 2021 The five years have produced a trappy Willie Mullins’ record of three winners but four beaten favourites four years running at 2-1, 6-5, 13-8 and 15-8. His 2021 beaten favourite won the race the following year.
Ratings of the winner 150, 155, 151, 147, 157.
LAYS LOGIC: None of the five winners has been bigger than 3-1 SP but only one has been favourite.
⭕ 3.20 Cheltenham (Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle) No winning favourite in 12 years, with 10 winners double-figure SPs of 11-1, 14-1 (twice), 16-1 (twice), 18-1 (twice), 33-1 (three times) and 50-1.
Ages 6 and 7 (14 out of 16). Trainers: Willie Mullins 4-9.
Some 12 out of 18 had won at around 3m but the Mullins winner last year had scored only at 2m, though an Irish Points winner at 3m.
LAYS LOGIC: Favourites finished since 2016: 7-2 fav pulled up, 9-4 fav 5th, 11-4 fav 4th; 4-1 fav 2nd; 4-1 fav 4th; 7-2 fav 4th; 9-4 fav pulled up; 9-4 fav ran out; 2-1 fav pulled up; 9-2 fav 2nd (2025).
⭕ 4.00 Cheltenham (Gold Cup) Favourites currently four out of six; five have won in the last 10 years. Some 12/14 winners have been 9-1 or shorter at SP.
Nine of the last 11 winners had won two of their last three races, still standing. Age, 7, 8 and 9 (15/16).
Ratings: 152, 166, 175, 167, 166, 164, 175, 164, 174, 173, 179 but only 160 last year.
Irish trainers 9/10: Willie Mullins (4), Henry de Bromhead (2).
The last 19 winners had already won Graded races (Grade-1 in 15 years); 19 out of 19 had raced at Cheltenham before; 17 out of 18 had won at 3m or further, and 19 out of 19 had won at least two chases.
⭕ 4.40 Cheltenham (Challenge Cup open hunters’ chase) Three favourites have won in the last 10 seasons but others include 66-1 (twice), 28-1 and 25-1. Nine winners aged 10 or 11 until 8yo and 9yo in last two years.
Winning trainers: Paul Nicholls (2), Enda Bolger (2). Won over at least 3m (13/15).
⭕ 5.20 Cheltenham (Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle) Favourites: all beaten in the last 13 years. Ages: 5 and 6 (14 out of 16). Weight: 11st 3lb and above (12/13)
Ratings: 135, 139, 138, 144, 145, 145, 142, 137, 138, 140, 141. Trainers: W Mullins (5), Gordon Elliott (4), P. Nicholls (2), Joseph O’Brien (2).
LAYS LOGIC: Favourites in last 10 seasons since 2016 finished: 9-4 fav 7th (2016), 9-2 fav 8th; 13-2 fav 12th; 7-2 fav 2nd; 4-1 fav 12th; 4-1 fav 10th; 7-2 fav brought down; 5-1 jt favs 5th and 15th; 2nd 100-30; 5-2 fav 20th of 22 to finish.
VALUE VETERANS’ CALL
⭕ 3.10 Exeter today Jaminska had some tough assignments after winning two out of three going into the autumn last year. Betdaq Betting Exchange 6.3
Her Cheltenham form, Listed third in October, was in a close finish behind an easy winner on the same course in mid-December (French Emperor well beaten) and a next-time class-2 scorer.
⭕ 3.40 Exeter (Veterans Chase) This is Gunsight Ridge’s first race below class 2 and Graded company since scoring at Perth nearly two years ago.
But Can You Call may hold the key at BETDAQ 7.1 this morning: he is 314 in veterans’ races.
In those figures is a win in class 2 and a third when Eldorado Allen beat Mister Coffey. Well behind in fourth was Gunsight Ridge.
BEST TO FOLLOW BOUGHEY
⭕ 5.30 Newcastle Night Breeze, who ran less than two weeks ago, makes dramatic drops in trip – to a mile from 1m 4f (four times a winner) – and in class.
He won and was placed in class 2 handicaps at Ascot last summer. This is class 4, and that’s why he is top of the handicap. BETDAQ 19.5 for a back and lay, expecting him to dominate.
Callianassa is 1131 at Newcastle since returning to form last summer, despite SPs of 25-1 and 14-1. Well drawn.
Flying Fletcher is also a standing dish on tonight’s track, but has won just once from five times placed since September.
Carron has been running well at Meydan after a gelding op late last year. Stall 2 should help on only his second run in England after moving to George Boughey, whose last four days at the races have resulted in 11121 returns.
Jez Bomb wins here at Newcastle a grade lower in the autumn and right now has never been so high in the handicap.
DAQMAN’S BETS
on Betdaq Betting Exchange
★ 3.10 Exeter (win 21, nap)
BET 4pts win JAMINSKA
3.40 Exeter (win 20)
BET 3.3pts win CAN YOU CALL
5.30 Newcastle (win 10, win 20)
BET 6pts win CARRON
BET 1.1pts win NIGHT BREEZE
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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