DAQMAN’S COPPED 10 WINNERS: Call The Cops (WON 9-1) was another 50-point winner for Daqman yesterday, after starting the Cheltenham Festival on Day 3 with Vautour (WON 6-4), bringing his total for the meeting so far to 10 winners.
140 HITS: NOW TO FIND GOLD: Pricewise got one back yesterday with a ‘biggie’ but the two early winners give Daqman a 2-1 win and a 9-2 festival lead over his Racing Post rival with one day to go. They clash today in all bar the 2.40 and are head-to-head in the Gold Cup. Overall scores: Daqman 140, Pricewise 73.
ONE-TWO! A 104-1 FORECAST: Daqman tipped the second horse home in both his winning Day-3 races, punishing the layers, one-two, one-two:
WON 6-4 VAUTOUR
2ND 7-1 APACHE STRONGHOLD
(Ladbrokes forecast paid 11-1)
WON 9-1 CALL THE COPS
2ND 14-1 Unique De Cotte
(Ladbrokes forecast paid 104-1)
PAIN-FREE 39.0 BETDAQ ANTE-POST BET
1.30 Cheltenham (Triumph Hurdle): I have two ante-post bets left: Le Mercurey later on and the progressive Pain Au Chocolat here.
Trainer Alan King says excitedly he ‘doesn’t know how good he is.’ That, in a nutshell, is the problem with betting at Cheltenham: unexposed horses galore.
Kingy is particularly clever with juveniles, has won this race before and had a ‘result’ yesterday when Uxizandre ran the Ryanair field ragged, courtesy of one of those McCoy cowboy-quarterhorse rides. I see no Indians!
At 39.0 we have at least double the morning odds about Pain Au Chocolat (20.0 BETDAQ; only 12-1 with Ladbrokes) allowing a trade, but his place offers at 5.7 early mouse were bigger than the favourite’s win odds. So I’ll have a double save on the race; place on Pain, and something to beat him.
Hargam comes out a bit behind Alan King’s benchmark Karezak on Triumph Hurdle Trial form in December, with Karezak then the equivalent of six lengths behind Peace And Co, who also has the edge on Beltor (first-time hood) on collateral lines.
Top Notch, by the same sire as Don Poli, isn’t far behind Peace And Co, if he can reproduce his form at Ascot in January.
Willie Mullins’ grey Kalkir and stablemate Petite Parisienne, who beat him at Leopardstown, are split in the ratings by stablemate Dicosimo, who ticks the stats boxes, and is the ride of Ruby Walsh.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: We’ve got a pain-free ante-post bet and, with rain about, Dicosimo at 14.5 in a 102% orange looked big, early mouse, as a Mullins-Walsh contender.
Yesterday’s Fred Winter fourth Starchitect was the weight equivalent of 22 lengths off Peace And Co at Doncaster so I shall also save on the favourite.
CUP HERO TO BEAT THE COUNTY SET AT 20.0
2.05 Cheltenham (County Hurdle): The winners usually come from the bottom half of the handicap, where the meeting’s champion, Willie Mullins (back-to-back wins 2010-11) has placed Lucky Bridle, Wicklow Brave and Max Dynamite.
But their form tends to point up Jessica Harrington’s Modem (24.0 on BETDAQ as I write) , who is twice the offers of Princely Conn yet a better horse than he on collateral form.
Newmarket Cesarewitch third, Quick Jack, is a glass horse who’s shot up the weights, though Shane Shortall’s claim will help a bit.
Needing the rain to stay away are Hawk High, Orgilgo Bay and Rich Coast, whose s able has another solid contender in Waxies Dargle. He owes me for his fall in a big race at Leopardstown on the last day.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: The Irish are mob-handed at the front of the market but I will have to stand by J P McManus’ Waxies Dargle (21.0) over the same owner’s Sort It out.
Dr Newland tries to ‘do a Pipe’ and land the double with my 33-1 Imperial Cup winner, Ebony Express, and why not. Also 21.0. Modem is 24.0.
MULLINS CAN PUT MY BANKERS IN THE BLACK
2.40 Cheltenham (Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle): I’ve lost a silly point on Fletcher for this race. ‘Silly’ because I didn’t field it. I mean, once you side with a horse, you must not let it go unbacked and slip through your fingers. Fletcher swerved today to run in a lesser race at Naas on Sunday and won at 20-1.
Five of the eight winners of this had already scored at Cheltenham: only Blaklion, Carningli, Definitly Red and Thomas Brown fit that stat.
All bar one had scored in a Graded race, like Black Hercules, Blaklion, Caracci Apache, Definitly Red, Martello Tower and No More Heroes.
Martello Tower (holds No More Heroes) looks exposed after six hurdles starts and his form is with Outlander, only sixth in the Neptune on Wednesday.
Outlander’s stablemate, Black Hercules, will welcome any rain for this, his long-term target after a double late last year, at the weights beating Alpha Des Obeaux further than did the Supreme Novice hero, Douvan.
Thomas Brown comes out on the form a better horse than Ordo Ab Chao, who beat Value At Risk in January, but was behind Outlander, seventh in Wednesday’s Neptune. So the race is beginning to stack up as another Ruby Walsh romp.
The Neptune runner-up Parlour Games was only a couple of lengths in front of Outlander on Wednesday, which is where Blaklion and Caracci Apache are on Newbury and Doncaster form.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Obviously, with these youngsters, sudden improvement can take place after very few races in which to compare collateral form. But Black Hercules looks a standout.
GOLD MEDAL FOR COOPER RIDING RICHES
3.20 CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP Coneygree doesn’t do it for me. Five out of 10 winners in the decade had had only eight or nine steeplechase starts. But three?
CONEYGREE (three chases): You can understand how keen is a small stable to do well, particularly in this Blue Riband. But – I’ve said it many times before – I really don’t like seeing a young horse or one so limited in experience sent out for a Gold Cup or Grand National, though he ran away from Houblon des Obeaux in great style in the Denman Chase.
That he has a 5lb higher rating than Denman when that one won the Hennessy is ridiculous. And Denman was winning his ninth chase when he took the Gold Cup, 10lb higher than Coneygree is now, having already established his Grade-1 Cheltenham credentials by taking the RSA.
There are freaks – Faugheen is perhaps a freak – but that we have a second one at the same festival, I doubt. Betting is all about making a stand on the evidence you see before you. A stand backed up by hard cash, for or against. I stand against this one.
BOBS WORTH (10 chases): Has already won a Gold Cup but is rated level peggings with Coneygree. Pull the other one!
Bob was only fifth last year and the handicapper says he’s ‘gone,’ dropping him a stone from 180 to 166. He’s probably right but the rating is still an insult.
DJAKADAM (five chases): Djakadam is still only six, and has won only one chase outside the novice stage. That success – a heavy ground Thyestes over a long-time 141 rated – surely doesn’t merit the hike to 162.
In favour of those who reckon this the new Arkle is that trainer Willie Mullins hardly ever runs his horses, gearing them to one thing: Cheltenham. So I’ll take him over Coneygree any day. More experienced; trainer of the meeting (oh, and I tipped him for the Thyestes!)
MANY CLOUDS (nine chases): At least this one has ‘done a Denman’ and won the Hennessy but the runner-up was Houblon des Obeaux, and – strictly – the form puts Coneygree half a stone in front of Many Clouds (chorus of ‘told you’ so’ from Coneygree fans).
On the other hand, the ‘Oboe’ was unsighted behind Lord Windermere, Silvinicao Conti (4th) and Bobs Worth in last year’s Gold Cup, and has improved only a couple of pounds since, according to the handicapper. Don’t make sense, do it, Lord Sugar.
HOLYWELL (10 chases): Yet another prince looking for the crown, with plenty of followers. Winner at the last two Cheltenham festivals, hurdles and chase (beating yesterday’s Ryanair runner-up Ma Filleule), and slammed Don Cossack at Aintree.
CARLINGFORD LOUGH (17 chases) Is this the McCoy fairytale ending.. or was that Uxizandre yesterday? No, I think I’ll wait for the last. Only fifth to Road To Riches and Leopardstown Hennessy form let down by Foxrock yesterday, albeit Lord Windermere and Boston Bob were behind.
ROAD TO RICHES (10 chases) It would be no more than Bryan Cooper deserves on his Yellowbrick Road to enjoy the riches of a Gold Cup, and this one is truly 20lb better than last season.
He absolutely left them standing in the Champion Chase at Down Royal in November and the bare result puts him in front of all bar Silviniaco Conti, the King George wnner. A subsequent Lexus victory suggests he’ll get today’s trip well enough.
SILVINIACO CONTI (17 chases) He’s the reason there are so many pretenders to the throne. He’s rated well clear of the field but his two Gold Cup results are Fell and 4th. Like Carlingford Lough, looks well exposed.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Djakadam and Coneygree are on the way up the ladder but, unless one of them is a freak, they have a few more rungs to climb to match Road To Riches progress.
There are monsters abroad this week (like Faugheen) and Djakadam could be one of them. I marked him down for next year’s gold when I tipped him for the Thyestes but, as one of my horses to follow, I can’t afford to miss him and do a Fletcher!
Road To Riches is a crazy price at offers of 13.0 and, if Djakadam is the next wonderhorse, he’s huge at 9.2. I’m in.
Gold Cup order in: 1 Road To Riches, 2 Djakadam, 3 Silviniaco Conti.
SIGN THAT MAGUIRE HAS PLOTTED FOR THIS
4.00 Cheltenham (Foxhunter Chase): Will Biddick has the ride on Aerial, who would be a stone clear of this field on the 152-155 marks of his Murphy fourth and P/Power sixth on this course as a six-year-old, when with Paul Nichols. Recent two out of two in Points.
Current Event, who landed a string of novice-chase wins way back, set up a Points sequence before winning the Scottish Foxhunter on the first day of February.
Seventh Sign, a Points winner over Cork Citizen, took a 3m hurdle for Alan King a year ago, so his stamina is not in doubt for this.
Now with Adrian Maguire, he was seen front-running in a hunter-chase at Thurles recently and those tactics can be successful in an amateurs race.
Temple Grandin, a prolific Points winner, ran an excellent prep for this at Haydock a month back, while Chosen Milan sauntered around Taunton recently, finishing 44 lengths clear in a hunter-chase.
Alskamatic beat Chosen Milan easily last Spring before finishing runner-up in the Point-To-Point Championship here at Cheltenham, but both performances were on a sound surface and he won’t want the rain.
Following Dreams also has the edge on Chosen Milan if they reproduce their second and third in the Champion Novices’ Hunters’ Chase at Stratford, also last Spring.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: I’ve chosen to check out only those contenders of a single-figure age, since they win this nine times out of 10. But which one today?
Don’t call me sexist, but a 10-from-10 stat says that only male riders win. So we’re choosing from Aerial, Following Dreams, Need To Know (I forgot to mention his modest form), Seventh Sign, Temple Grandin and Chosen Milan, of which Following Dreams, Need To Know, Chosen Milan and Temple Grandin can’t be given away by the layers in the BETDAQ orange.
Check them out later but over my cornflakes, I’m going for the craic, the crunch and the crackle with Aerial at 15.0 and Seventh Sign at 24.0.
JONJO UP FOR THE CRAIC: FORTHEFUNOFIT
4.40 Cheltenham (Martin Pipe Hurdle): Jonjo O’Neill hasn’t had his Cheltenham winner yet but can never be overlooked in handicaps and he’s been Mr Shrewdie here. As has David Pipe.
The vast majority of conditionals can’t claim in this but O’Neill and Pipe both know a man who can. The 5lb and 3lb respectively allowed on their runners could be crucial.
Forthefunofit (McManus-O’Neill) is unexposed, though already placed at Cheltenham; Pipe’s Balgarry on the other hand, comes out a stone in front of the Imperial Cup runner-up Rayvin Black and more than a stone better than Fred Winter runner-up, Bouvreuil.
Will he get the trip? Well, despite his age, he has raced only seven times and has a first-time tongue-tie this afternoon.
Don Poli won this last year and that man Mullins is three-handed today though, if you check them out, you’ll find that all three have had their form let down at Cheltenham this week.
My man in the long grass told me before the raceday tickets were printed that Paul Nicholls had laid out Le Mercurey for this, unphased by the 144 rating because of the tight 9lb-range handicap.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: I’m on Le Mercurey ante-post, and will now add Forthefunofit at 16.5 and Balgarry at 32.0, all staked to win 40. I’m looking for another big Ladbrokes’ forecast.
FAREWELL TO ALL THAT: LEGEND ON THE LINE
5.15 Cheltenham (A P McCoy Grand Annual) I hope this race title lasts longer than Aintree’s John Hughes, preferably becoming as time-honoured through the centuries as the Eclipse Stakes.
Can A P win its first running on Ned Buntline? Well, I’d written off the exposed Uxizandre as a Neddy the donkey before the champion galvanised him yesterday, but this Ned is well disguised, kept quiet since he ran second in this very race last year.
Pity about the price but, as everyone’s getting-out stakes and McCoy’s farewell, I grabbed 5.6 this morning expecting to do a trade.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: The grand annual Cheltenham bash is over for another year, and a great career in Jumps racing to rank alongside Vincent O’Brien, Fulke Walwyn, Pat Taaffe, Ryan Price and Fred Winter is almost over, too. The arena will feel empty another year.
DAQMAN’S BETS (stakes as stated)
* TON-UP BET (ante-post to win 100): 2.6pts win PAIN AU CHOCOLAT at 39.0, and 4pts place at 5.7. Plus (win 30) 2.2pts win DICOSIMO and 3pts (stakes saver) PEACE AND CO (1.30 Cheltenham).
* BET (win 40): 2pts win and place on each EBONY EXPRESS and WAXIES DARGLE, and 1.7pts win and place MODEM (2.05 Cheltenham)
* BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) BLACK HERCULES (2.40 Cheltenham). Loss 1pt ante-post.
* LAY 10pts place CONEYGREE and BULL’S-EYE BETS (win 50): 6.5pts win DJAKADAM and 4.3pts win ROAD TO RICHES (3.20 Cheltenham Gold Cup)
* BET (to win 40): 2.8pts win and place AERIAL, and 1.7pts win and place SEVENTH SIGN (4.00 Cheltenham)
* ANTE-POST BET (each to win 40): 4.8pts win LE MERCUREY at 9.8, plus today 2.5pts win FORTHEFUNOFIT and 1.5pts win and place BALGARRY (4.40 Cheltenham)
*BET (win 30): 6.5pts win NED BUNTLINE (5.15 Cheltenham)
NEW !!!
You can now follow BETDAQ updates on Google+
For further details – CLICK HERE
£30 FREE BET
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
