BETDAQ VALUE: TWO-AND-A-HALF TIMES BETTER: Free Thinking (WON 1-1) was tipped by Daqman at 3.5 on BETDAQ yesterday, a 250% better deal on the exchange at morning offers.
BETDAQ VALUE: GALE A FORCE AT 7.6: All eyes are on Oscar Whiskey on his chase debut today but it’s a small field for betting, and Daqman preferred Victrix Gale (7.6) and Upswing (8.6) for value on BETDAQ this morning.
1.05 Cheltenham As David Pipe goes for a hat-trick in this race with Standing Ovation, bidding for a five-timer, we are again reminded of the gulf between quality horses and ordinary horses.
Pipe’s Guess Again couldn’t put two races together yesterday, as I forecast. It was a lay that went begging for me, under the column’s strict price rules. I had no idea that unwary punters would back him in to 13-8 SP (last of six to finish).
Like Guess Again, Standing Ovation is carrying a nominal penalty (7lb), not yet the full 13lb of his punishment. He’s an altogether different animal, looking like a Graded horse in a handicap.
The question-mark negatives today are whether he can cope with a fifth race in five weeks, whether he will perform as well for an amateur rider, and whether he can handle Cheltenham, which presents double trouble.
This is the undulating championship track with its demanding final climb, requiring Standing Ovation to go left-handed. All his wins have been right-handed at Exeter and, mainly, Wincanton. But what can beat him?
Nothing with a weight like that of Ruben Cotter (will like the ground) or Mr Moss (never won when fresh) has won this race before.
Imperial Cross is another who can’t put two races together, but just the opposite applies to Hunter’s Lodge. He keeps his form well and a month ago beat Handy Andy over today’s Old Course and distance.
Having his first outing of the season that day was Fredo (5th), who is now 16lb better off with Hunter’s Lodge though he beat that one six lengths at Cheltenham in the Spring.
The smart mare Victrix Gale, one of six in this likely to be on the upgrade, is over from Ireland for the ground, with a top Irish amateur booked.
I reckon it’s around 3.5 Standing Ovation (against 2.62 this morning in a 106% list in the orange), 6.0 Victrix Gale (7.6), 8.0 Fredo (10.0), 10.0 Hunter’s Lodge (11.5), 12.0 Handy Andy (12.0), 14.0 bar.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Standing Ovation has had a good run and, if I were Pipe, I’d now be looking at the big handcaps at the Cheltenham festival. So he needs to be thinking about his rating and he needs to know if the gelding acts on the course.
Fredo is unreliable but has never had a better chance, and has clearly been lined up for this for Sam Waley-Cohen, who rode him on the course last month. The 106% ‘book’ gives me a chance to spread my stakes.
1.35 Cheltenham Strangely the big two of Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson, winners of this race three times apiece in the decade, have no runners today. Horses aged nine and 10 don’t win. Nor do outsiders (biggest SP odds in the decade 8-1).
Eastlake is another young horse being tested for future Cheltenham gains by the master of Festival handicaps, trainer Jonjo O’Neill. Eastlake has been eating up the park-track prizes (four out of six) on all types of ground, three in today’s class.
To see Anay Turge, whom he beat convincingly last time, as his nearest market rival suggests that his run hasn’t ended. But this is Cheltenham, and both Anay Turge and Oh Crick have won here.
Renard comes out well on his Chepstow form with Ballygarvey but his Cheltenham form is 4P00, and he was behind Sew On Target (3rd) over half a mile further here last month. It was the third time running Sew had missed target on the course, in the frame without winning.
DAQMAN’ S VERDICT: Sew On Target drops back in trip and front-running by this stayer with course experience is likely to put him thereabouts. I would still take Eastlake over Anay Turge, whose wins are in lower grade.
Once again, punter-friendly BETDAQ had a 105% list of offers in the orange this morning, and I took 8.0 Eastlake (I thought he was realistically around 6.0) and 12.4 Sew On Target (my pricing up had him at 9.0).
2.05 Cheltenham (Steel Plate and Sections Novices’ Chase) This has thrown up young stars like Denman, Imperial Commander, Grands Crus and Dynaste. But the race has fallen apart today, and focus is on one horse.
If young improvers – no winners of this over the age of six – are to make it 10 in a row, then we have to expect the unlikely demise of Oscar Whiskey at the hands of either Taquin Du Seuil or The Romford Pele, though Pete looks lower class at this stage..
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Disappointing renewal. The very smart hurdler Oscar Whiskey comes late to the chasing game. ‘Could be anything’ but tactics by A P McCoy on Taquin Du Seuil (jumping alongside, forcing him into fences at speed) are likely to find out what’s he’s made of as a chaser.
A 101% BETDAQ orange still can’t tempt me. I have to bet odds on (1.68 Oscar Whiskey) a first timer over fences or 3.7 Taquin De Seuil against an animal 19lb his superior over hurdles. I’d rather watch and learn.
2.40 Cheltenham The stats tell us nothing, which means it’s an open race, so a 4-1 favourite (Top Gamble) in the 20-horse race did not appeal for a first position this morning.
Top Gamble is a big horse with a high knee action so needs cut in the ground, witness his wins so far in a bumper and over hurdles, both on heavy. So highly regarded, he is entered up to the same double of this race and the Haydock Fixed Brush Hurdle that was won by the same stable’s Grands Crus.
Atlantic Ruler is being primed here for his chasing debut and Whisper, a winner on the New Course at this sort of trip, who has to give weight away all round, is another with chasing on the agenda. Gods Own is also high in the handicap.
Upswing is the interesting horse for hurdles, capable of winning at speed and upped to a distance which suits him on breeding (Beneficial out of a Be My Native mare).
Killala Quay has done nothing wrong, and Warden Hill impressed at Kempton. One Conemara is a delicate, unfurnished sort. Kaylif Armais needs the mud.
DAQMAN’S VEDICT: The ground is against Top Gamble today but he is very highly regarded and must have this early taste of the Cheltenham undulations if he is to be a Festival horse.
There are several improvers to consider and I want around 7-1 the field. In fact, I could get 8.6 Upswing, with the stable having a look-see for their Festival agenda in four months’ time.
3.15 Cheltenham (Cross Country) Punters who follow the top cross-country horses get sequence winners like Spot Thedifference, who won this four times running, and Uncle Junior, who is on a hat-trick mission today.
But Balthazar King and Chicago Grey (first cross-country run) are a match for his stamina, and banks king Enda Bolger fields Zest for Life and Quiscover Fontaine against the 12-year-old
Balthazar King played second fiddle to Uncle Junior in this race last year but Uncle Junior’s form tailed off badly. Zest For Life has won only right-handed so far, solely at Punchestown.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Willie Mullins will know that Uncle Junior’s career is almost over. He will have been ‘got up’ for this early-season banks race which he’s won twice before, and 7.6 is good value.
Balthazar King is a Cheltenham specialist fast becoming the same in cross-country contests, and must be the saver. The Bolger pair have it to prove. The ground is right for Chicago Grey.
3.50 Cheltenham Edmaaj (7.8 this morning) and Quick Jack (3.55) bring Tony McCoy and Ruby Walsh back in competition, with a 12lb and more pull on the admirable Rosie Probert. Quick Jack may be a cut above these at the weights. Nap.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 3pts win VICTRIX GALE, 2.2pts win FREDO, and 3.4pts win (stakes saver) STANDING OVATION (1.05 Cheltenham)
BET 2.8pts win EASTLAKE and 1.75pts win and place SEW ON TARGET (1.35 Cheltenham)
BET 2.6pts win UPSWING and 0.75pts win (stakes saver) TOP GAMBLE (2.40 Cheltenham)
BET 3.pts win UNCLE JUNIOR and 1.6pts win (stakes saver) BALTHAZAR KING (3.15 Cheltenham)
BET 8pts win (nap) QUICK JACK (3.50 Cheltenham)
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