5-2 WINNER AND 9.6 BULL’S-EYE GAMBLE PAYS A PLACE: Winning’s everything but not losing is the good intention. And yesterday Daqman contrived to break even thanks to his staking plan, and that was despite a losing supernap (fell when in second). His bull’s-eye bet was fourth, winning 12 points for a place.
WON 5-2 WINNINGSEVERYTHING
WON place IOLANI (4th 11-2, from 9.6 on BETDAQ)
MAGIC CHELTENHAM EXPLODES ONTO THE JUMPS SCENE: The Flat meetings are flat unless you fancy taking on the many maiden races but Cheltenham explodes with a card which has been a magic starting point for many a star in the Jumps firmament. Headlines:
🔹 BLUE BANKER STARTS THE DAY
🔹 EARLY TRUMP CARD ON BETDAQ
🔹 25.0 IS AN OFFER TO TREASURE
🔹 DINE ON DAVY AT THE DOUBLE
🔹 SLOW STARTER FAST FINISHER
BLUE BANKER STARTS THE DAY
Many happy returns! Cheltenham is back with a meeting which is like the birth day of stars, so many fire the headlines here. The returns from the weekend cards feature Jumps racing’s latest hero, Tiger Roll in particular.
But the meeting has been a major launchpad for training ace Paul Nicholls: Dodging Bullets, Black Corton, Old Guard and Vicente among them. And other eye-openers from top stables were Balthazar King, Fox Norton, Sceau Royal and The New One. Can we turn up some aces today?
2.00 Cheltenham First of my prospective 2020 NH Fortune Cookies is Braid Blue, winner of four in a row and now testing his talent in the main arena of Jumps racing.
His trainer, Gordon Elliott, should know where he is with Doctor Duffy through two of Braid Blue’s stablemates who were second and third to that one at Navan.
And it’s hard to be confident about Champagne Well. Good run in a strong Sandown handicap but beaten at Ludlow when odds on, and with worrying bridesmaid form figures now of 32230, still a maiden over hurdles.
Yet Champagne Well was favourite this morning, while I could get 4.3 Braid Blue in the BETDAQ orange early mouse.
EARLY TRUMP CARD ON BETDAQ
2.35 Cheltenham The second prospective Fortune Cookie is Getaway Trump,
who has been set a tough task first time over fences against another debutant, Al Dancer.
Getaway Trump was well beaten by Al Dancer in a Grade-3 hurdle at Ascot in February but, according to the handicapper, improved 12lb afterwards to win his qualifier and then the final of the Novices’ Championship at Sandown.
That put him officially 4lb in front of Al Dancer, whose four-in-a-row sequence blew out here at Cheltenham when a disappointing joint jolly in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.
I can see this pair seesawing as favourites, so I grabbed 2.78 about Trump to get my cover away to a flyer in this race.
25.0 IS AN OFFER TO TREASURE
3.10 Cheltenham Evan Williams, who introduced a decent novice yesterday in Ballinsker (won when my supernap, Humble Hero, fell in second), has just one runner at Cheltenham this afternoon, as his form figures start to glow at 3112, still standing.
Seemingly well placed to creep in at the foot of this handicap hurdle is his Treasure Dillon, who will be suited by trip and ground, and was most at home on a tough track in the Spring. Cheltenham will do nicely, sir.
Watch the weather if you want a confidence boost for Charles Byrnes’ Irish raider, The Big Galloper (Davy Russell), who may need plenty more rain.
I can’t put you off Smarty Wilde, Duke Street, Tedham.. So many seeming chances but only two horses have won this with more than 11st in the last decade. That means The Big Galloper (BETDAQ 8.2) and Treasure Dillon (25.0 offers).
DINE ON DAVY AT THE DOUBLE
3.45 Cheltenham We’d have to find it disappointing though, on hurdles form, not unexpected, if Boyhood or Wholestone won this as novices late to the fencing scene.
Success for an eight-year-old has not happened in the decade and would condemn the youngsters, of which only Dinons has a competitive rating.
Dinons won as he liked – all the way – at Limerick on the last day but maybe beat nothing well and maybe mainly because he loved the heavy ground. He has something to prove today but don’t they all.
Present Ranger is a tough nut who also has to step up but Minella Warrior was second in a Pertemps qualifier, splitting the subsequent Final hero and the Kempton Silver Plate winner.
So what of Boyhood and Wholestone? Both have the advantage of having already scored over fences. Wholestone is the one with a touch of class.
He was second at Cheltenham in the Relkeel Hurdle and fifth in the Stayers Hurdle at the festival. Boyhood’s best hurdles win was on heavy.
You’d think the penalised horses would struggle to give weight away but, in fact, class will out: 11st 8lb has been carried by eight of the 10 winners in the decade, so I’m going to side with dynamo Davy Russell again at around 4.0 Dinons.
SLOW STARTER FAST FINISHER
4.10 Doncaster Maidens and a tough sprint so far on the Town Moor card (more maidens at Newbury) but maybe the stats give us a good start here.
They reveal winning sequences for three-year-olds (seven out of eight) and for single-figure stalls (seven out of nine). Both sequences have recently been interrupted but could be the twin stats you need in this.
Second-season horses in high stalls today – Funny Man (David O’Meara 7% strike rate), Ginistrelli (Ed Walker 6%) and Starczewski (David Simcock 7%) from gates 10, 14 and 16 respectively – have a second disadvantage in that their yards are out of form.
Contrast those dismal strike-rates with Ralph Beckett’s 40% (Teodora De Vega, stall 6, at 8.2 BETDAQ offers). I think the extra distance will suit his slow-starting filly.
Caravan Of Hope (stall 2) was dropped back to novice level to get off the mark and is forced to try again in a handicap. Celestial Force is on a bridesmaid streak of 322322.
Ginistrelli at 5.0 may yet be a big danger to all, as a winner over the trip on soft with a strong burst at Haydock in September, beating previous winners and a winner since.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.00 Cheltenham (win 30)
BET 9pts win (nap) BRAID BLUE
2.35 Cheltenham (win 10)
BET 5.6pts win GETAWAY TRUMP
3.10 Cheltenham (win 50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 7pts win THE BIG GALLOPER
BET 2pts win and place TREASURE DILLON
3.45 Cheltenham (win 20)
BET 6.6pts win DINONS
4.10 Doncaster (win 20, win 30)
BET 5pts win GINISTRELLI
BET 4pts win TEODORA DE VEGA
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