DAQMAN LANDS TWO OUT OF THREE AS HIS NAP GOES FIRST: GA Law in Georgia is said to be so good that it is the model for state law in America. The horse of that name was a model favourite when he ran away with his race at Exeter yesterday. Forty minutes later Ugo Gregory’s success at Ayr was a case of ‘I go’ first, as he stormed clear two out to land a winning nap for Daqman. So two out of three yesterday:
✔️ WON 11-10 UGO GREGORY (nap)
✔️ WON 11-8 GA LAW
JUMP TO IT WITH SUPER BETS ON CHEPSTOW’S OPENING DAY: On a day of tricky two-year-old tests on the Flat at Newmarket, Daqman relies on the stats on the opening day of the Jumps at Chepstow for his main bets today, including a bull’s-eye bet and a supernap.
TOMORROW: Daqman on the big two races at Newmarket, the Dewhurst and the Cesarewitch. It’s another day of value on BETDAQ.
McFABULOUS START FOR NICHOLLS
⭕ 2.10 Chepstow Chepstow officially launches the Jumps season today, with some five-figure purses which have traditionally tempted Paul Nicholls.
He’s had five winners of this opener in the decade, every one of them straight from a summer break at SPs from even money to 11-2. Yes, all five fresh, as is Thyme White today.
Thyme White, the Scottish Triumph Hurdle winner in February, was heavily supported overnight in bookmaker markets but was 6.9 in BETDAQ exchange offers early mouse.
The worry, as ever, is Nicholls’ archrival Nicky Henderson, who runs Fraser Island. He has only ever won twice and both were when fresh after long breaks.
Vorashann will make the market for us after varooming home 15 lengths. Be warned that the second and third had both been beaten further than that in their previous race.
⭕ 2.45 Chepstow Nicholls has won the last three renewals of this mares’ novices’ hurdle, and his Kilmington Rose ran up to the subsequent winner of the Mares’ Bumper Final at Kempton when they were one-two at Taunton in January. I took 2.79 in the BETDAQ orange.
⭕ 3.15 Chepstow (Persian War Novices’ Hurdle) Nicholls (4) and Philip Hobbs (2) have shared six winners in the decade of this first major test of the novice brigade.
But Hobbs (Everglow) and Nick Williams (One For The Team) have yet to strike form, so the Nicholls’ contender, McFabulous, already a Graded novice-hurdle winner, could be a good thing: 10 earned you 8 in BETDAQ exchanges this morning.
⭕ 4.55 Chepstow I restrict my bets in these veterans’ chases to 10-year-olds. That age group has won this particular event 80% of the time, none of them favourite, but all just behind the market leader(s) at single-figure odds SP.
The usual suspects, including Nicholls and Hobbs. But dangerously low in the ratings now is Shantou Village (first-time visor; down 12lb this year). Sam Twiston-Davies is 3-7 still standing in the last four days including one for Neil Mulholland yesterday. BETDAQ 6.4 taken
ADDRESS CAN STAMP HER MARK
⭕ 1.50 Newmarket (Cornwallis Stakes) Bahrain Pride won back to back on the soft in August but his bold bid for a Group 2 (Mill Reef Stakes) to seal the hat-trick was a bit over ambitious or the sounder surface was a disadvantage. Or both.
Should Bahrain Pride return to form in this Cornwallis, back on the soft, and down a grade, he would boost the Mill Reef winner’s chance in Saturday’s Dewhurst. Name of Alkumait, who was put into my Fortune Cookies to replace Bahrain Pride.
Bahrain Pride is well drawn today in 11 (score 3-6 for 11 and higher in the last six years); well drawn, too, is Royal Address in 3 (the three other winners came from 2 and 3. So it may be that you want to be one side or t’other.
But Royal Address will do for me, she herself now going for a four-timer after completing the hat-trick in a Listed at Chantilly (heavy), and fillies do particularly well in this race (6-10). I took 9.0 in the BETDAQ Sportsbook.
Like Royal Address, Method is also Listed level only so far, but his form is cloaked in drama after his saddle slipped in the Middle Park.
In fact, he raced much too keenly and, since he really returns here with no proper race since July, his freshness could be against him again today.
Acklam Express also took a keen hold when failing to mix it with older sprinters the last day, also following a hat-trick.
NAZUNA COULD BOOST ISABELLA
⭕ 2.25 Newmarket (Oh So Sharp Stakes) Roger Varian has won this twice in the last three seasons but runs two. If he can’t choose between Nazuna and Setarhe, what hope do we have?
Setarhe seems to have gone backwards in Group company, whereas Nazuna improved – and shot up the ratings – on the last day, when runner-up in the Rockfel.
Unexposed but already placed in a Group 3 in Ireland is Joseph O’Brien’s Thinking Of You.
⭕ 3.35 Newmarket (Fillies Mile) The third two-year-old test at Newmarket today is the big one, the Group-1 Fillies Mile, but the Oh So Sharp could dictate its favourite.
I reckon they will come for Isabella Giles, 5.9 in the BETDAQ orange this morning. The link is that she beat Nazuna in the Rockfel, her fourth success in five races, and success for Nazuna would help close down her price.
The unbeaten Indigo Girl is sister to Journey, who won the Fillies And Mares at the champions meeting.
But the Irish again bring strong contenders to the table, this time Aidan O’Brien, and sons Joseph and Donnacha O’Brien, are all represented but with Ryan Moore on Donnacha’s daughter of Homecoming Queen, Shale.
Shale and Joseph’s Lawman filly Pretty Gorgeous have met three times, with Shale beating her archrival in the Silver Flash and the Moyglare – both on good ground – either side of defeat by the Gorgeous one in the Debutante at the Curragh on soft.
Today it’s soft again, and Joseph must have a great chance of following up his 2018 victory with Iridessa over Aidan’s hot-pot Hermosa in this race.
But when there’s a private duel like this in a race I tend to avoid it, as an indicator that the pair are too close together to call.
THROW A 17 AT THE BETDAQ 9.6
⭕ 4.10 Newmarket Saeed Bin Suroor is on record as saying that Brilliant Light is a big, strong horse who ‘needs good ground.’ Also against him is his limited experience; only three runs.
Shandaz and Cepheus are brought close together now by the handicapper after their one-two in a similar race at Ascot last month (Kipps a well-beaten third).
Doubling Dice has the lucky stall 17 in terms of recent results in this race (two winners in four years): BETDAQ 9.6
As a front-runner, he’d normally need a bit of luck from the widest starting stall of all but there’s nothing to take him on, if they run their normal races.
Galata Bridge, a son of Golden Horn, has improved 23lb since July and has climbed the grades step by step, this being the next natural rung on his ladder. A close relative is Summer Mile (Ascot Group 2) winner, Mutakayyef, but they couldn’t give her away this morning (out to 21.0 on BETDAQ)
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.50 Newmarket (win 10)
BET 1.25pts win ROYAL ADDRESS
2.05 York (win 10)
BET 1.25pts win CROWNTHORPE
2.10 Chepstow (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET: 8.5pts win THYME WHITE
2.40 York (win 10)
BET 1.75pts win ZEEBAND
2.45 Chepstow (win 10)
BET 5.5pts win KILMINGTON ROSE
3.15 Chepstow (supernap)
BET 20pts win McFABULOUS
3.35 Newmarket (win 10)
BET 2pts win ISABELLA GILES
4.10 Newmarket (win 10)
BET 1.25pts win DOUBLING DICE
4.55 Chepstow (win 10)
BET 1.75pts win SHANTOU VILLAGE
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