MAXIMUS-STAKED SUPERNAP AMONG THREE WINS IN A ROW: Daqman, who had two returns on the first day at Chester, landed three winners in a row on Day 2 yesterday, including on odds-against supernap in the Dee Stakes Derby trial. It took his score to 15-9 over Pricewise.
WON 7-2 Lincoln Park
WON 3-1 Morando (Ormonde Stakes)
WON 5-4 Circus Maximus (Dee Stakes supernap)
BETDAQ BETTING AND DAQMAN STATS TURNKEY TO BIG RACE: Whenever there are strong stats, Daqman likes to analyse every runner in a big race. With the Chester Cup ABC today, he tests for draw, distance and going, as well as age and the ratings parameter, which reveals the quality required to win. Check out the key, then turn to the BETDAQ orange and compare the offers against his result. Today’s headlines:
🔹 TIME TO STUDY CHESTER CUP ABC
🔹 EXPECT A RUN ON RIDGE ON SOFT
🔹 AQUARIUM IS A BIG FISH AT 11.0
🔹 FAVOURITES A DOUBLE NEGATIVE
TIME TO STUDY CHESTER CUP ABC
3.35 Chester Cup
➡️ GOING Soft.
➡️ DRAW (10 years winners by stall) 4, 5, 1, 13, 2, 4, 11, 4, 2, 6.
➡️ TRAINERS: Ian Williams 2, Andrew Balding 1.
➡️ FAVOURITES: 1-10. KEY to the stats for the Chester Cup:
A All winners in the decade rated between 93 and 99
B 80% were older than four; 90% younger than eight
C 65% of winners had scored over 2m on the Flat
D 65% of winners had raced in the last six months
+ 80% winners in the decade came from stalls 1 to 6
S Won on soft ground
X Black mark/only four winning favourites since 1975
+ABCDS Speedo Boy
He’s 5lb higher than for his gutsy Brown Jack (2m) win at Ascot in July. After sixth in the Cesarewitch, he came out again a month later to win 2m 5f hurdle at Cheltenham, then a fortnight later, was third to Champ in the Ladbrokes Hurdle at Newbury. Sunning himself in Dubai since.
ABCDS Time To Study
Fifth last year off an 8lb higher mark and 11lb lower now than when sixth in the Northumberland Plate but poor form since; gelded and changed stables into the same yard as Speedo Boy and Shabeeb.
ABCD Busy Street
In good form on AW this year but no chance with winner, Lucky Deal, at Chelmsford. Revised weights may not be enough, and we are now on turf. He’s 19lb higher than sole grass success (1-17) since breaking his maiden.
AB Shabeeb
Won for previous trainer over 1m 6f a year ago. Absence since is a concern coming into this helter-skelter fitness test, but a Marwan Koukash horse is likely to have been long-term prepared for this. Paul Hanagan gets the ride.
ACD Lucky Deal
Only five four-year-olds have won the Cup this century. Beat Busy Street easily over 2m on AW in February after back-to-back turf winners over shorter in the autumn but will struggle to beat Austrian School at the weights on evidence of his fourth in the Queens Cup at Musselburgh.
ACD Watersmeet
Won the 2m AW championship in April but only ninth in the Chester Cup a year ago (4lb lower now) and sixth the year before. Modest turf strike-rate (2-24).
+AD Fun Mac
Runner-up last year off 101, after third the year before (102). Down to 93, some 23lb better for six lengths with Magic Circle and 10lb better for a length with Montaly. But he’s eight years old now and has not won a race in England since September, 2016.
+BCDS Cleonte
Rapid progress (up 13lb) last three starts, 2m winner at Ascot, third in the Cesarewitch, then opened this year with third in the Sagaro Stakes (Group 3). Weighted for revenge on Cesarewitch winner Low Sun, and should hold the fifth, Theglasgowwarrior, and sixth, Speedo Boy, at the revised weights.
BCDS Who Dares Wins
Cesarewitch Trial winner at Newmarket, Chester Cup third and fourth, and Ascot Stakes third; Gerry Feilden winner (2016) and Coral Cup third (2017) over hurdles. Handicapper keeping a tight hold but always does his best and loves the mud.
BCS Low Sun
Game Cesarewitch win has him 10lb higher now, with tough task to shake off the third, Cleonte. A lazy sort until he gets into a fight and then he never gives up and is a very hard horse to pass, though not easy to see him getting to the front from the worst draw of all.
BDS Whisky Sour
Won back-to-back handicaps at the Galway festival in 2017. Fifth in the Ascot Stakes, sixth in the Ebor last year. County Hurdle fourth at Cheltenham in March. Versatile and likely to be thereabouts but now 11 straight races without winning.
+CD Cliffs Of Dooneen
Lightly-raced former Ballydoyle inmate, dual winner on firm ground. Ran well in the Queens Prize which used to be a good prep for this. Could get involved if liking the ground. Trainer has had two winners at the meeting this week.
CD Making Miracles
Though he beat stablemate Austrian School (1m 6f) comfortably last summer, he’s 3lb better off. Gave 7lb and a beating to another stable companion, Lucky Deal, a fortnight back but, again, is better off at the weights! A son of Pivotal, so could like the cut in the ground but drawn near the castle walls.
+CDS Mirsaale
Unlikely to have the speed at age nine. Behind Austrian School and Making Miracles on his two reappearance runs this term. His only Flat wins in three years were in the same boys’ race at Ripon at this time of year, 2016 and 2018.
CS Montaly
Won this race first run back in 2017 from stall 2 under Oisin Murphy but, though two years older, is only 3lb higher. Poor form in seven starts since winning the Lonsdale Cup at York in August of that year. Trainer in fair form this week and, once enjoying this race, horses tend to go well again.
+DSX Austrian School
Only five four-year-olds have won the Cup this century, and no horse rated 105 has scored in the decade, though two have carried a similar weight. Not out of the first four in 14 starts. Won a handicap (1m 6f) at last year’s meeting – 25lb higher now – but a nearly horse since until taking the Queen’s Cup at Musselburgh last month (1m 6f).
Half-brother to Tiger Roll, he’s reckoned ‘an Ebor or even Irish St Leger’ horse by trainer Mark Johnston, who also runs Lucky Deal, Making Miracles and Watersmeet.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Though Cleonte doesn’t get into the ‘A’ team because of his high rating, his 101 is 4lb ahead of the handicapper. He is due to go up to 105, a stone higher than at this time last year. He was third in the Cesarewitch and now gets a pull on the winner.
Speedo Boy, Time To Study and Shabeeb appear perfectly placed – Shabeeb for four times winner of this race Marwan Koukash – by trainer Ian Williams but he is is out of form (2-35), missing strike with figures of 0430 at Chester so far this week, including the below-par run by Magic Circle yesterday.
Austrian School has been hiked 8lb to 110 but need only carry his 3lb penalty today, so 5lb well in. He’s won on the track and on the ground.
ORDER IN: 1 Cleonte (BETDAQ 6.6), 2 Who Dares Wins (12.0), 3 Austrian School, 4 Whisky Sour
EXPECT A RUN ON RIDGE ON SOFT
➡️ THIS WEEK’S DRAW: Chester results by stall yesterday were 4, 5, 3, 1, 3, 6, 13, and on Wednesday 3, 6, 6, 8, 3, 4, 8. GOING: Soft.
➡️ TRAINERS (two days at Chester this week): David O’Meara form 111, Aidan O’Brien 02122120, David Evans 4101, Ralph Beckett 2011, John Gosden 310, Gary Moore 1, John Ryan 1, Michael Appleby 1, Andrew Balding 4304302123.
➡️ JOCKEYS (winners): Daniel Tudhope 3, Harry Bentley 2, Silvestre De Sousa 2.
1.50 Chester Eight winners out of 10 drawn 1 to 7. The 11.0 BETDAQ offer Baraweez won it last year from gate 2 and has been lucky again, trapping from the 3 stall today off a 4lb lower mark.
A huge danger is the Kyllachy gelding Ptarmigan Ridge (next door in 2), who won on the soft here in September. He has gone well since, up in weight or class, or both, switched to Richard Hughes. I took 4.0 on BETDAQ.
2.25 Chester This is a Group 2 mile-and-a-quarter race won last year by Forest Ranger after he took the Earl of Sefton three weeks earlier.
He tried for the same double again this season and, despite sweating up, split a strong pair in Zabeel Prince and Mustashry in the Sefton.
Seven out of nine on AW, Matterhorn cruised up at Lingfield from the Cambridgeshire winner, Wissahickon. Snag is he’s yet to try turf again since his debut.
Addeybb, last year’s Lincoln winner on the soft who followed up in the Sandown Mile, is another who ran well at the AW championships. The handicapper matches the Matterhorn AW ratings to turf, otherwise Addeybb would be well clear. Tricky one.
AQUARIUM IS A BIG FISH AT 11.0
3.00 Chester Draw: 8-10 winners came from stalls 1-6. David O’Meara has had four strikes from five starters in three days, including a double here on Wednesday.
After 17 consecutive races in the Pattern, his grey entire Frankuus, who likes cut in the ground, made a good start to his handicap career a fortnight ago, beaten a length giving 5lb to the winner
The one that beat him was Kings Advice, another entire – and no wonder, being by Frankel – who was winning his fifth consecutive race in 10 weeks and must himself be headed for Listed company at least after that.
Kings Advice, now rated 98, is trained by Mark Johnston, who saddles the 101 rated Aquarium, giving a pound to 5.4 BETDAQ offer Frankuus today.
Aquarium, who has scored on soft ground, has won at Epsom and Nottingham, so enjoys a left-hander into the straight. I took 11.0.
3.45 Ascot One I’ve been waiting for, at around 2-1 on BETDAQ this morning, is Royal Residence, out of the same stall as last year’s winner, and partnered by William Buick, who has won the race twice in the last five seasons.
Runner-up in a big field at Ayr on heavy, made a promising reappearance, and trainer James Tate started this month with three winners out of seven.
FAVOURITES A DOUBLE NEGATIVE
4.10 Chester Kachy is drawn 8 for his four-timer bid, after running away with a treble on AW, but not to worry on that account: he won this race from the same stall last year!
Duke Of Firenze was 11 lengths fourth that day – same weights as they carry now – but A Momentofmadness is a serious challenger.
Negatives for Kachy are that his form with ‘soft’ in the going return is much less impressive (02002) and his stable has so far flopped badly at this Chester meeting with these shock returns: 2030000000030000000.
A Momentofmadness (stall 2), who won at this meeting last year, dwelt for his first run back three weeks ago. Can’t afford that sort of thing round here, and he usually pings the gate. But form on softish ground for the last three years: 300030.
I have an automatic choice from the Fortune Cookies, so I hope he wins at around the morning 5.3 on BETDAQ.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.50 Chester (each to win 20)
BET 6.5pts win PTARMIGAN RIDGE
BET 2pts win BARAWEEZ
3.00 Chester (win 50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 11pts win FRANKUUS
BET 5pts win AQUARIUM
3.35 Chester (win 50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 9pts win CLEONTE
BET 4.5pts win WHO DARES WINS
(Stakes saver) 4pts win AUSTRIAN SCHOOL
3.45 Ascot (win 20)
BET 10pts win (nap) ROYAL RESIDENCE
FORTUNE COOKIES
4.10 Chester (level stakes)
BET 20pts win A MOMENTOFMADNESS
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