STAGGERING DRAW RESULTS: 12 OUT OF 14 TO FIRST FOUR STALLS: The Chester draw this week, which even affects today’s marathon Chester Cup, has shown staggering results to the low numbers in the first two days. Daqman gives his verdict on the Cup and has a supernap in the Group race.
* Results by stall so far: 1, 3, 4, 4, 6, 2, 3, 1, 6, 2, 3, 3, 3, 4
CLASSICS ABC TOMORROW: After the Chester trials for three-year-olds this week, Daqman continues with his ABC guides to the Lingfield Derby Trial and the Lingfield Oaks Trial tomorrow. Next week, with the Dante and the Musidora at York, he assesses his Classics ratings for ante-post betting.
CARDANO: PLUM DRAW FOR MOORE
⭕ 2.45 Chester (Chester Cup) Mark Johnston, who sent out four horses for this when he won the last running in 2019, saddles five this time. All you have to do is guess which one will lead!
Seven Cup winners in the decade came from stalls 1, 2 (twice), 4 (twice), 5 and 6, until Johnston’s Making Miracles crossed over from the 16 stall and made all in 2019.
The man who did the job was Franny Norton, who must now try to overcome stall 12 on the tracker, Trumpet Man.
The first two in the early betting are also drawn high: Not So Sleepy (13) has won only one Flat race since June 2017; Future Investment (15) is very lightly raced and 2-2 at Chester.
Not So Sleepy (led until a furlong out) and Future Investment (weakened a furlong out) were fourth and 11th respectively in the Newmarket Cesarewitch.
Though a six-year-old Falcon Eight, another from a double-figure stall, has had very little racing; won only a small-field Listed before tackling Cup races and first cheekpieces then a visor didn’t help.
He has taken over as favourite but with trainer Dermot Weld hoping that a gelding op and engaging the master-craftsman Frankie Dettori will change the Falcon’s flight pattern!
Themaxwecan and Cardano, first and second in the Queens Cup (1m 6f) at Musselburgh, are drawn wide apart today, ‘Max’ from 17, Cardano out of the one stall and with Ryan Moore booked.
Hochfield, who was third, might be the Johnston horse who goes to the front today from gate 2. He’s won at Chester and Goodwood, so likes turning tracks, but looks well exposed after 39 starts.
Who Dares Wins, who scored over 2m 5f at Ascot last summer, has been placed three times (2nd, 3rd, 4th) in the Cup, including second to Making Miracles from stall 12 in 2019.
He comes out of stall 3 today for Alan King, who also saddles Coeur De Lion, winner and second here at Chester over the CD and a winner in May and June three times.
But no nine-year-olds have won in the last 48 years and only one eight-year-old since 1985.
Daqman’s verdict They swooped for Falcon Eight last night (14-1 > 11-2) but he and Nate The Great from my short list may both want better ground. I shall declare two against the field but I shall enjoy some BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE play, with possibilities from their low draws for outsiders to lead long enough to trade.
BACK and LAY 12.0 Hochfield, 44.0 Blakeney Point .
BETDAQ win value 10.5 Trumpet Man, 11.0 Cardano Place value 15.0 Who Dares Wins
MONEY ON ASCENSION ONLY LENT
⭕ 1.45 Chester Winning stalls 3, 2, 1, 5, 4, 8, 1, 1 since 2012. Wow! No wonder those drawn 1 and 2 are leading the market.
Revich and Dulas have both made all in their careers, Revich here over CD and he was the gamble this morning, in to 3.2 on BETDAQ for Tom Marquand from the one stall.
They didn’t want the Johnston front-runner, Gobi Sunset (drifter to 14.5 despite a stall 4 berth) which seems significant.
I had a pound on Ascension in the Lincoln but the grey didn’t get room for a run. With all that pace from the low stalls, he could come wide and defy the draw.
Goes well with cut in the ground and trainer Roger Varian is currently 12121142, including a winner at Chester on both days so far.
BETDAQ value 7.4 Ascension
ANOTHER FROM O’BRIEN ARMORY
⭕ 2.15 Chester Aidan O’Brien won the Group race here yesterday with Japan, and Armory is 6lb clear of Sangarius in the ratings, after running second in the Group-1 Cox Plate on soft in the autumn.
Sangarius (twice had wind surgery recently) was Royal Ascot Group-3 winner on soft in 2019, and beat Bangkok a nose on the Lingfield AW in December, with Bangkok having shown better form on a sound surface.
⭕ 3.45 Chester One of the morning talking horses is Data Protection but he’s never won first time and William Muir has been missing strike with three seconds (two of them favourite), three thirds and two fourth for one win in his last 11 starters.
CD winner Lawn Ranger, who has had a run back, is 7lb better off for a short-head defeat by Restorer after trying to make all for 2-2 on the track in September.
BETDAQ value 8.2 Lawn Ranger
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.45 Chester (win 30)
BET 4.5pts win ASCENSION
2.15 Chester (supernap)
BET 20pts win ARMORY
2.45 Chester (win 50 bull’s-eye bets )
BET 5pts win each CARDANO and TRUMPET MAN
3.45 Chester (win 20)
BET 2.75pts win LAWN RANGER
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
