CURRAGH CARD TODAY AND NORTHUMBERLAND PLATE ABC: It’s all about quality today, starting with an ABC stats guide to tomorrow’s Northumberland Plate. There are two Group-2 events and the Group-1 Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh this afternoon, and Daqman also tries to solve the big sprint, Gosforth Park Cup, at Newcastle tonight.
Headlines:
🔹 IT’S ALL UPHILL FOR PLATE GAMBLE
🔹 LATROBE TO TOPPLE THREE-YEAR-OLDS
🔹 IT TAKES TWO OF O’BRIEN’S TO TANGO
🔹 WILD CARD IS WORTH WAITING FOR
🔹 LINE OF REASON THROWN IN AT 19.0
IT’S ALL UPHILL FOR PLATE GAMBLE
3.35 Newcastle, tomorrow (Northumberland Plate) Daqman’s stats check on tomorrow’s field knocks out the big gamble, Gibbs Hill, on the grounds that he has not won or placed in a big field, nor has he placed in a Group race. He’s never run beyond 1m 4f, and not seen a racecourse for two years or so. ABC KEY:
A Won, placed in big-field handicap (class 2) or Group race (90%)
B Carried 9st 1lb to 9st 10lb (six of last seven = 86%)
C Aged four to six (84% this century)
D Winner at 1m 6f or further on the Flat (76%)
X Drawn in lowest 14 stalls (88%)
ABCDX Stratum
Ascot Stakes third then JLT Cup winner at Newbury (2m firm) last summer but flopped in Ebor and Cesarewitch. Switched to hurdles and won small-field two-miler at Ballinrobe in May.
ABCDX WITHHOLD DOUBTFUL RUNNER
Last year’s winner of this after easy 2017 Cesarewitch success. Scoped badly with minor lung infection.
ABCD Austrian School
Mark Johnston railed against the handicapper for putting him up in the weights despite not winning ‘but he’s been proved right.’ He was ‘more of an Ebor horse than a Northumberland Plate horse,’ but clearly Mark is prepared to eat his words again.
Austrian School is a half-brother to Tiger Roll so, though his success has been at 1m 6f or shorter, the 2m of the Plate holds no fears. In fact, Group-3 third to stablemate Dee Ex Bee at Sandown (2m) before that one ran second in the Gold Cup. Badly drawn.
ABCD Desert Skyline
Regarded as a Gold Cup horse by David Elsworth but beaten eight times by Stradivarius. Nearest he got was three lengths second in both the 2018 Yorkshire Cup and the British Champions Long Distance Cup. Badly drawn
ABCD Making Miracles
Winner of the Chester Cup on soft in May. Beat stablemate Austrian School over shorter, making all at Haydock last July, but behind that one at Sandown in the Spring in the Group 3 won by Dee Ex Bee. Badly drawn
ABC Proschema
Placed twice in big fields at York over 1m 6f and in another class-2 handicap over that trip at Newmarket (July Course) recently. But hasn’t won since novice and maiden races, and badly drawn.
ABDX Red Galileo
Has won just three times in 39 starts and eight years old now. Back to form on the last day at Newmarket (July Course) in first-time hood, beating Speedo Boy and Proschema.
ABDX Who Dares Wins
Ascot Stakes and Chester Cup placed and won (2017) Newmarket Cesarewitch Trial. Seven years old now and better known over hurdles these days.
ACDX Dubawi Fifty
Not seen since Ascot Stakes runner-up of 2018 after fourth in the Chester Cup and fourth, too, in the autumn of 2017, some 11 lengths behind Withhold in the Cesarewitch.
ACDX Speedo Boy
Sixth Cesarewitch, seventh Chester Cup and won a marathon hurdle in November. Back to form on the Flat when runner-up to Red Galileo three weeks ago, back at 1m 6f.
ACX Bartholomeu Dias
Improved steadily in the last year, beating a big field here at Newcastle on the last day but had been beaten on his only start beyond 1m 4f.
ACX Mootasadir
Good-looking Group-3 Dundalk AW winner last autumn, scoring back to back after Kempton win. Two more successes in March gave him an AW four-timer before, up in trip, aimed too high for Group-2 Yorkshire Cup and Belmont Gold Cup in US (2m), so we still don’t know whether he’ll get the trip in Plate company.
ALSO: ACDX Cosmelli, BCD King’s Advice, CDX Aicraft Carrier, BCX Gibbs Hill, CDX Shabeeb, CDX Time To Study, CX Cohesion, CX Fearsome.
LATROBE TO TOPPLE THREE-YEAR-OLDS
3.45 The Curragh today (Curragh Cup) This race has produced a Melbourne Cup star (Rekindling 2017) and the Irish St Leger winner (Flag of Honour 2018) in the last two years.
Five of the last six have gone to Aidan O’Brien and three-year-olds have scored four in a row, but the result may hinge on whether Rekindling’s trainer, Joseph O’Brien, can coax Latrobe back to winning form.
Latrobe won the 2018 Irish Derby and was second in the Curragh St Leger over today’s trip but dropping him back to 10 furlongs has not paid off on slower ground this term.
Joseph, who also saddles Cimeara, knows all about the form at today’s trip, having sent out the winner of the Vintage Crop Stakes at Navan in April to beat Mustajeer, Southern France and Twilight Payment.
Luke Comer trained Raa Atoll to land a tough Group-2 in Germany in the Spring, beating the Doncaster Cup winner Thomas Hobson.
He’s now lured Frankie Dettori over to ride Raa Atoll even though the partnership was beaten at this time last year (then trained John Gosden) at both Royal Ascot and the Newmarket July Meeting.
For a five-timer today, the three-year-olds rely on the Aidan O’Brien colts Southern France (Ryan Moore) and Western Australia, who swerves the Irish Derby for this. Won well at Navan (Masaff third) but didn’t like the ground at Royal Ascot.
Aidan also saddles Minding’s sister Heaven On Earth, a maiden winner, who needs to find a couple of stone.
IT TAKES TWO OF O’BRIEN’S TO TANGO
4.15 The Curragh (Airlie Stud Stakes) Aidan O’Brien has recently won this two-year-old test with Queen Mary fourth So Perfect (last year) and Albany seventh Clemmie (2017). He now sends out Precious Moments from her Albany fifth and Tango, who finished ninth in the Queen Mary. Around 5-1 each.
Pick one of these two and you’ll be betting that Aidan can train them past Jessican Harrington’s Albigna who beat them a head over today’s CD in May.
Dual winner Ickworth, who was impressive here at the Curragh, also in May, reared up in the stalls and refused to race in the Queen Mary.
WILD CARD IS WORTH WAITING FOR
5.25 The Curragh (Pretty Polly Stakes) Again, it’s three-year-olds versus the older fillies and mares, with second-season animals down 5-3 since 2011.
Two of their winners were very strong contenders, both with Aidan O’Brien: 114-rated Misty For Me and Minding off 120.
O’Brien today represents the Classic year with Epsom Oaks runner-up Pink Dogwood (112) and the 103-rated Happen, who clearly has something to find.
And I’m looking to Nassau winner Wild Illusion, with Worth Waiting – another top spare for Frankie Dettori – big at offers of 10.0.
LINE OF REASON THROWN IN AT 19.0
6.35 Newcastle (Gosforth Park Cup) Copper Knight made all and won this unchallenged last year but is 12lb higher now after two power drives at York, first then third in big fields.
Tarboosh is also a big-field winner, on turf at Doncaster in October but, presumably because he has modest form on AW (1-6), he is racing off 97, some 8lb lower than his new turf mark.
That’s an invitation for a bet but the good news has to be offset against his Newcastle form, which is 00.
The handicapper has not been so kind to Makanah. Though his AW form is 0-4, he has been set the same 96 rating under both codes, after 2-3 on turf recently.
Foolaad got within a length of Copper Knight at York in May and is now 4lb better off. He won over 6f at Doncaster so a good pace would help.
The same applies to Eeh Bah Gum, who was fourth that day at York and is now well treated with both Copper Knight and Foolaad. I took 8.6 on BETDAQ.
Encore d’Or has a terrific AW record (14 times placed, eight wins, from 21 starts) and won here at Newcastle in January off a 6lb higher mark. His rider’s claim gives him another 5lb.
Line Of Reason won over the Newcastle CD off 100 two years ago, and off 91 at Ayr last July.
His 88 mark today looks tempting for a bet at 19.0, set a weight 15lb better with Encore d’Or for a threeparts of a length beating at Yarmouth in September.
DAQMAN’S BETS
3.45 the Curragh (win 20)
BET 6pts win LATROBE
4.15 the Curragh (win 20)
BET 4pts win TANGO
BET 4pts win PRECIOUS MOMENTS
5.25 the Curragh (win 20)
BET 12pts win (nap) WILD ILLUSION
BET 2pts win WORTH WAITING
6.35 Newcastle (win 30)
BET 4pts win EEH BAH GUM
BET 1.6pts win and place LINE OF REASON
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