DONCASTER BANKER AND RATINGS NEGATIVES: Before you back his banker at Doncaster, Daqman asks: Are you fans of Decorated Knight, Churchill, Eminent and Jack Hobbs? He says they are rated much too highly by the Racing Post. See if you agree with his figures, as our man lines up the three-year-olds alongside the older horses, comparing his own ratings with the Post’s.
TOMORROW: The ratings will be put to the test – alongside Daqman’s challenge to Pricewise – with the Eclipse Stakes at Sandown.
TODAY: But the generations could have their first blood today when a three-year-old son of Frankel lines up against older horses. Now read on..
RIBCHESTER RULES THE RATINGS
Daqman has demolished the Pricewise myth. Now he challenges another Racing Post standard, the RPR, race ratings which the paper puts up against the OR (official ratings).
Pricewise has managed only EIGHT (yes, just 8) returns this Flat season to Daqman’s 47, and single-point level-stakes have our man 200 points in front.
But Daqman’s supremacy is not down to one season alone. The overall scores in eight seasons since November, 2013 are: Daqman 454, Pricewise 179.
Race ratings are not selections. What you know as OR and RPR are ratings based upon performance, base ratings from which to start your calculations when trying to find the winner of a race.
If you add in the conditions of that race plus pros and cons affecting each individual horse, you have what are known as future ratings. That’s why Racing Post ratings on the day may vary, if placed alongside their running figures.
What good are base ratings? They are a useful starting point for you for two reasons: you may not want to spend hours on the form; and you may have your own add-ons and deductions, according to your view of the race itself, its stats, the performance of trainers and jockeys and so on.
If you devise a points system for each of these, you are well on the way to an algorithmical computer feed, though Daqman says: ‘I prefer my brain to the computer’s because a computer can’t quantify a nuance’.
Here are the base ratings you could use for the big meetings in July, including the Eclipse tomorrow, with Daqman’s at left and the Racing Post on the right. We are allowed to quote the RPR because they are published in in the public domain, and duly attributed.
Note that we start from a numerically different platform, so the Daqman top two are Enable and Ribchester on 118, theirs are Churchill and Ribchester on 125. Three-year-olds in capitals (not including sprinters).
When looking to the future, perhaps for ante-post bets, remember that three-year-olds get an allowance, which gradually diminishes towards the end of the season.
118 ENABLE (RPR 121) Winner of the Oaks
118 Ribchester (125) Winner of the Lockinge and Queen Anne Stakes
116 BARNEY ROY (122) Winner of the St James’s Palace Stakes
116 CAPRI (119) Winner of the Irish Derby
116 Highland Reel (123) Winner of the Coronation Cup and Prince Of Wales’s Stakes
115 Big Orange (119) Winner of the Ascot Gold Cup 2017
115 Order Of St George (119) Winner of the Ascot Gold Cup 2016
115 WINTER (119) Dual Guineas and Coronation Stakes winner
115 CRACKSMAN (119) Placed in two Derbys
113 BRAMETOT (118) Winner of the French Derby
113 CLIFFS OF MOHER (119) Epsom Derby runner-up
113 Deauville (121) Third in the Queen Anne Stakes
112 CHURCHILL (125) Newmarket Guineas winner
112 CORONET (107) Winner of the Ribblesdale Stakes.
112 LE BRIVIDO (118), 111 EMINENT (122) 111 BENBATL (114), 110 Decorated Knight, (120), 110 Ulysses (120), 110 Jack Hobbs (125), 110 Idaho (119).
CROWLEY FLIES UP FOR KAT NAP
2.00 Doncaster Everything’s drifting (7.0 bar one) in the BETDAQ orange – Bombshell Bay right out to 16.5 – in fear of the ‘good thing’ Mutakatif at around even money.
Second at Newbury to a supposed star of Stoute’s, with the third horse a six-lengths winner next time. Jim Crowley, who has a full book of rides at Chelmsford tonight, flies to Donny for the one ride on Charlie Hlll’s Kat (banker) nap.
2.20 Sandown Mark Johnston bids for a hat-trick in this race, his last year’s winner going on to win the Middle Park. Rebel Assault is 9lb behind official top-rating, Havana Grey, but gets 8lb under the conditions of this Listed race.
Connery, Havana Grey, Formidable Kitt, Ivy Leaguer, Last Page and Roussel all ran at Royal Ascot. Connery (winner of a small race since) and Ivy Leaguer were well behind in the Coventry.
Havana Grey was last of four in the stands’ group which failed to make any impression in the Norfolk Stakes, won by a 107-rated animal.
Heartache gets the same 107 official rating after winning the Queen Mary, which I think underestimates her, and Formidable Kitt, though fading in the final furlong, was on the premises a furlong out, despite a bad draw.
Well backed this morning, Roussel was beaten only a neck (Last Page further back) in the Windsor Castle but by a 104-rated winner.
With Rebel Assault and Roussel drawn wide, and Havana Grey giving weight all round, I fancy Formidable Kitt win and place at 8.4 on BETDAQ early mouse.
FRANKUUS’ GENERATION CASE
3.25 Sandown This is a mini-Eclipse, with three-year-olds taking on older horses over 1m 2f, a first taste of the battles to come and, I think, first blood to the Classic generation by Frankuus at a 10lb difference in weight.
The Mark Johnston grey son of Frankel finished fourth in the Lingfield Derby Trial and was third here in the Sandown Classic Trial, now dropping back to that trip after a weakening eighth behind Permian in the Royal Ascot ‘Derby’, the King Edward V11 Stakes.
Kidmenever (needs rain) and Ayrad were third and fifth at Ascot in the Wolferton Handicap, Ayrad having beaten Spark Plug in this Gala Stakes last year. But that was on soft ground.
Ayrad could improve for being gelded but is six now and I remember him being well beaten by one of last year’s three-year-olds (with a 105 rating) in the Arc Trial at Newbury in September. Frankuus (5.4 BETDAQ offers this morning) is rated 106.
Spark Plug won the Cambridgeshire but that’s because he is at home in big fields. He won’t get one today.
4.10 Doncaster Luca Cumani, who has a 25% strike rate with first-time handicappers, has won this twice with three-year-olds recently but both with low weights. I still prefer his Pleasant Surprise to Harebell at a difference of 7lb, because you can’t trust Harebell to settle.
Canny Style is exposed at a lower level and High On Light also won down in class 5, the penalty stopping her (form figures 2202) ever since.
DAQMAN’S TIPS
BANKER 20pts win (nap) MUTAKATIF (2.00 Doncaster)
BET 2.75pts win and place FORMIDABLE KITT (2.20 Sandown)
BET 4.5pts win FRANKUUS (3.25 Sandown)
BET 7.5pts win PLEASANT SURPRISE (4.10 Doncaster)
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