TWO OUT OF THREE DAQMAN NAPS: Daqman claims his nap today at Doncaster has a big future as a handicapper. He’s bang in form with two out of the last three best bets:
WON 9-4 MONOPOLISE (Thursday)
WON 11-8 LUCKY FIFTEEN (Tuesday)
ALL SET FOR SATURDAY BIG RACES: Daqman completes his previews of three big weekend races with the Lancashire Oaks today. See ‘Eclipse Ratings and Form’ on Wednesday and the grand prix bid by Westover (yesterday).
HE’S HAVLIN HAYDOCK OAKS!
⭕ 2.40 Haydock, tomorrow (Lancashire Oaks, 1m 4f) Is there an Alpinista in this second-grade Oaks and which second-rank rider will benefit from the absence of big-name jockeys, who are otherwise engaged at Sandown and Saint–Cloud?
Team Gosden has won it four times in nine seasons, with a slice of the £71k first prize going to Graham Lee, Dane O’Neill, Robert Tart and last year Robert Havlin.
Havlin is booked by the Gosdens on Saturday for the likely favourite, Mimikyu, winner of the Park Hill last September at this level.
A CD winner at Haydock last year, she returned on firm ground at York in May, beaten a short-head over 1m 6f. Mimikyu is drawn 9.
Nine out of 10 winners in the decade have come out of stalls 1 to 5, where you’ll find Sea Silk Road (Daniel Tudhope), CD winner in a Grade-3 a month back, and Aristia.
Aristia (Sean Levey), top-rated 111, was runner-up to Nashwa in the Nassau Stakes and won the Jean Romanet at Deauville; both on a sound surface, both over 1m 2f.
She’s five now and every single winner of this race in the decade was aged four, including future Arc winner Alpinista, who won this off 113 in 2021.
ARECIBO WELL HANDICAPPED
⭕ 1.55 Sandown today (5f sprint) A punter’s nightmare. But I’ll probably be thinking that again later on the card: so many ‘nearly horses!’
This sprint usually has fields up to nine or 10 max, yet not a single favourite has scored in the decade – not a one! – and a 14-1 shot turned up when only seven ran in 2019.
One clue of course, this being a rails-hugging Sandown sprint, is that seven of the 10 winners were drawn 1 to 4.
Second ‘must’ today is that your horse should like a bit of cut in the ground; that may happen early on, though it may be drying out during the afternoon.
Clarendon House from the one stall has won five times but always on a sound surface, four of them with the word ‘firm’ in the going return so, though not inviting for a bet, he might be a guide to the ground.
His Robert Cowell stablemate Arecibo (Hollie Doyle from 3) is not ground dependent; has slipped down the handicap and, off 96, is 7lb lower than when runner-up on soft in April to Live In The Dream, who now boasts a 109 rating, after twice being placed at Group level.
Korker (gate 2) is still 7lb higher than when scoring at York 14 months and 11 races back but, nevertheless, was runner-up in the Gosforth Park Cup at Newcastle (AW) in June.
Dream Composer (coming out of 5) has won twice on good to soft but Can To Can ran poorly with cut in the ground at Thirsk (13 of 13) in April and Dubai Station is 1-22 on turf.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 9.1 Arecibo
AAH! CATCH HER IF YOU CAN
⭕ 3.05 Sandown (2m Listed) From a sprint to a marathon and will 12-furlong, firm-surface winner Yibir get the drying ground he needs, then get the trip.
It’s his first attempt at 2m but the Breeders Cup Turf winner (2021) kept on late, sixth, after a slow start in the much-longer Ascot Gold Cup.
In a race often won by older horses, Ocean Wind used to have no problem with this trip, winner of the Cesarewitch Trial, runner-up to Stradivarius in the Sagaro Stakes. But all that was 771 days and more back in 2021.
Sleeping Lion, third in the Henry 11 Stakes over the CD, is 10lb behind Ocean Wind and 19lb behind Yibir in the official ratings.
You have to go back to his second in a Group 3 at Ascot in 2019 to find Raymond Tusk’s best run at 2m.
In the belief that this will be slow run, maybe Aaddeey can poach a lead into the straight and hang on up the hill. BETDAQ value 12.5.
BELLE BEST RIDE IN THE RACE
⭕ 4.15 Sandown (1m 2f Listed) All five ran in the Wolferton at Royal Ascot, with Saga (5th) coming out best, but with the Raceform description ‘badly hampered rival after a furlong,’ and with an offputting strike rate of 1-10.
One of those affected by his shenanigans under Frankie Dettori was Notre Belle Bete (11th), who had finished less than a length off Saga when third in the Suffolk Stakes at Newmarket.
In contrast to Saga, Notre Belle Bete is the best ride in the race. Both Andrew Balding’s grey and the four-year-old Poker Face like a bit of cut in the ground, and the outcome may depend on conditions by late afternoon. But at time of writing Notre Belle Bete looks the BETDAQ value at 5.9.
GRAND LOOKING HANDICAPPER
⭕ 4.40 Doncaster As a three-year-old, Grand Providence gets huge concessions here for this class-4 two-miler, receiving up to 21lb. Evens on BETDAQ this morning looked generous!
The daughter of Nathaniel, who himself took a big leap forward at her age and at this time of year, is reckoned to have a big future as a handicapper.
BETDAQ TIPS
1.55 Sandown (win 12)
BET 1.5pts win ARECIBO
3.05 Sandown (win 12)
BET 1pt win AADDEEY
4.15 Sandown (win 20)
BET 4pts win NOTRE BELLE BETE
4.40 Doncaster (win 10, nap)
BET 10pts win GRAND PROVIDENCE
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