LAY DELIGHT: DAQMAN GETS ANOTHER ODDS-ON SHOT BEATEN: Daqman opposed the money horse Hollymount Holly (2nd 5-6) at Wincanton yesterday, preferring a place outsider, Little River Bay (3rd 8-1 SP). It’s always a heads-up when Daqman opposes a short-priced favourite, as with his Sunday coup, a double whammy of 4-1 winner (Baron de Midleton) to beat 5-1 ON loser (Strong Glance, also second)!
DOUBLE WHAMMY AGAIN TODAY: THE BULL’S-EYE NAP IS BACK: Bull’s-eye naps (staked to win 50 points) made 249 points profit in the 2019 Flat season. The value required has been slow to emerge in the mud of the winter game and Daqman brings the bet back on the Flat (AW) at Dundalk tonight against an odds-on favourite. It would be a Double Whammy hat-trick.
TRENDING FINAL-DAY FRIDAY OF THE CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL: You now have three days of Cheltenham Festival stats in the Archive. Today is the final day, Friday’s trends one week ahead. In festival week itself, Daqman will analyse each race and look for value in the BETDAQ markets. See if you can find some first from what the stats tell you.
FESTIVAL STATS: RACE BY RACE
⚠️ HEADS UP: Here’s Daqman’s stats-and-facts survey of every race on Gold Cup day at next Friday’s Cheltenham Festival. Here find your guide to ratings, trainers, form, age, weight and favourites.
⭕ 1.30 Cheltenham, Friday (Triumph Hurdle) For four-year-olds.
Favourites three out of 10. Outsiders at 20-1 and 33-1.
Trainers: Nicky Henderson (3), Gordon Elliott (2). Ratings: 155, 142, 155, 140, 141 notional.
⭕ 2.10 Cheltenham, Friday (County Hurdle)
Favourites: nil. Outsiders at 33-1, 25-1, 20-1 (three).
Age: 5 and 6 (7/10). Weight: no more than 11st 1lb (7/10). Trainers: Dan Skelton (3/4) goes for a hat-trick; Willie Mullins (4/10).
Ratings: 138, 138, 158, 139, 146. No horse has won this twice since 1946.
⭕ 2.50 Cheltenham, Friday (Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle)
Two favourites won but 50-1 last year and 33-1 SP three times since 2010.
Age 6 and 7 (8 out of 10). Seven out of 13 winners had raced at Cheltenham before: 10 out of 13 had scored in a Graded race, and 11 out of 13 had won at around 3m.
Ratings: 140, 152, 143, 143, 146 notional.
⭕ 3.30 Cheltenham, Friday (Gold Cup)
Three favourites have won in the decade and 8/10 were 8-1 or shorter at SP. The last five winners had won two of their last three races.
Age, 7, 8 and 9 (9/10). Trainers: Nicky Henderson (2). (Ratings (five years): 152, 166, 175, 167, 166, 164.
There had been Graded race wins for 13 out of 13 (Grade-1 10/10 in the decade), and 13 out of 13 had also raced at Cheltenham before; 12 out of 13 had won at 3m or further, and 13 out of 13 had won at least two chases.
⭕ 4.10 Cheltenham, Friday (Foxhunter Challenge Cup)
Four favourites won in the decade. Last five winners all aged 10 or 11.
Trainers: Paul Nicholls (2), Enda Bolger (2). Won over at least 3m (9/10). Ratings: 141, 147, 138, 138, 139.
⭕ 4.50 Cheltenham Friday (Grand Annual)
Favourites just one win in 10; winners SPs include 16-1 (three times), 20-1, 28-1, 40-1, 66-1.
The last seven winners had not scored that season. Had won at the distance (10/10); ran at a previous festival (8/10)
Trainers: Paul Nicholls (2). Ages: 7, 8, 9 (8 out of 10). Ratings: 143, 140, 147, 150, 139.
⭕ 5.30 Cheltenham Friday (Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle)
Favourites: just one win in 10 (six out of nine were 9-2 to 12-1 SP). Ages: 5 and 6 (nine out of 10). Weight: 11st 3lb and above (9/10)
Trainers: W Mullins (3), G. Elliott (2), P. Nicholls (2). Ratings: 135, 139, 138, 144, 145.
GOOD LUCK WITH THAT, CHAMP!
Desperate stuff. Champion-jockey Richard Johnson, trailing Brian Hughes by 20, has four mounts today while Hughes has a day off. But all that can be said for Richard’s rides is that they each have four legs (I think).
I recommend you count them when Another Tuco (3.25) lines up at Ffos Las. Richard Johnson, and a fresh set of cheekpieces, must improve on his four defeats in a row (by a total of 167 lengths!).. yet he’s topweight in this novices’ handicap.
That tells you a lot about the quality of the race. Want more? Vanderbilt has been placed 11 times but is still a maiden after 39 starts.
And I wouldn’t count on Freedelivery repeating his CD success; the time was so slow, the ambulance driver stopped for a cup of tea. I think it’s a case of you pay but he won’t deliver. Moving rapidly on…
2.15 Ffos Las Johnson has ridden Precious Eleanor before, and the mare did nothing wrong, losing a shoe when just beaten at Doncaster, giving weight to the winner.
But she was thrashed by Whitehotchillifili (over shorter but on heavy) at Wincanton on Boxing Day.
Martha Brae is three lengths behind Whitehotchillifili, who comes out the equal of Miss Honey Ryder on their placed efforts behind the very smart Cill Anna at Wincanton in January.
Then last month Miss Honey Ryder had to pull out all the stops to resist Legends Ryde at Huntingdon.
It would appear, therefore, that Legends Ryde is the one to be on; he’s certainly not the 9lb inferior to Martha Brae which official ratings would have you believe.
Two and two don’t always make four at this level but collateral form shouts Legends Ryde.
PRES MARK ‘ABSOLUTE LET-OFF’
3.55 Ffos Las Heavenly Promise has not so far coped with a weights rise for landing three wins in a row.
But there are a lot of old boys he should beat (seven of double-figure age), including Richard Johnson’s mount, Nickname Exit, who has one win from 13 races over four years.
The one I like is the progressive Pres, aged only six. Jumps brilliantly and was 25 lengths clear of the third horse when just failing to hold the Chepstow winner, Indian Brave, at Newbury.
Indian Brave goes to Sandown or Hereford tomorrow, weather permitting, off a new mark of 123. That makes the 107 rating carried by Pres today look an absolute let-off.
LADY THE VALUE NAP TONIGHT
5.15 Dundalk I was there when Tommy Stack saddled Pollen to win the Irish Lincolnshire of 2009 but foolishly missed the trainer’s 3,387-1 four-timer that opened the 2010 season at the Curragh.
The winners continued to Stack up in the month of March when his son James – known as Fozzy – took over the ‘early bird’ mantle.
I fancy Fozzy’s American Lady to make an impact on the Flat turf scene and, depending on today’s Polytrack performance, I shall have her in my own Early Birds list (to be published after Cheltenham).
A three-year-old just come to hand, she is set fully two stone lower than the favourite, Sceptical (up 10lb), in this sprint at Dundalk Stadium, yet is 8.1 in the BETDAQ orange, early mouse.
She spent so much time chasing black type at Group and Listed level last season that she was still a maiden when she lined up on the Polytrack at Dundalk a month back, scoring over today’s CD despite an ‘impossible’ outside draw in 14.
The Lady has the 4 berth this evening, with the favourite in stall 3. Coming out of 3 might not help the odds-on Sceptical, who is a 6f hold-up horse, apprentice ridden, dropping back to the minimum against the tactical skills of Chris Hayes.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.15 Ffos Las (win 10)
BET 6pts win LEGENDS RYDE
3.55 Ffos Las (win 10)
BET 5pts win PRES
5.15 Dundalk (win-50 bull’s-eye nap)
BET 7pts win AMERICAN LADY
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