ELEVEN WINNING SUPERNAPS FROM THE LAST 12: Daqman grabbed a shade of odds on in the BETDAQ orange – almost double your money – for winning supernap number ELEVEN from 12 before a huge gamble on Makawee (WON 4-11) at Wetherby yesterday. The only supernap loser in the 12 bets over 22 days was one that failed to perform.
WON 4-11 MAKAWEE
WON 7-10 SIYARAFINA (Prix Saint Alary, Longchamp)
WON 1-5 PISTOLETTO
WON 2-9 CRYSTAL OCEAN
WON 4-5 STRADIVARIUS (Yorkshire Cup)
WON 1-3 LAH TI DAR (Middleton Stakes, York)
WON 10-11 CAPE VICTORY
WON 1-2 PERSIAN KING (French 2,000 Guineas)
WON 2-5 BROOME (Leopardstown Derby Trial)
WON 2-1 ANTHONY VAN DYCK (Lingfield Derby Trial)
WON 5-4 CIRCUS MAXIMUS (Dee Stakes)
OAKS DAY AT EPSOM IS ALL ABOUT BETDAQ VALUE: Daqman, who also had a 9-2 winner yesterday, is hunting value on BETDAQ today at 4.5, 6.6, 8.6, 8.8, 14.0 and a huge 36.0. His headlines before the races:
🔹ANAPURNA’S DRAW CLINCHES OAKS
🔹THE PINSTICKERS START TO EPSOM
🔹WATCH THE BIRDIE: 14.0 NICKLAUS
🔹CUE FOR DARING DETTORI TACTICS
🔹FORTUNE COOKIES UP FOR THE CUP
ANAPURNA’S DRAW CLINCHES OAKS
OAKS DAY AT EPSOM
Top trainers (10 years; this meeting only) Aidan O’Brien 13, Mark Johnston 8, John Gosden 7, Sir Michael Stoute 6, Andrew Balding 5, Mick Channon 4, Roger Varian 4, Charlie Appleby 3, Richard Hannon 3, Ralph Beckett 3, Richard Fahey 3, David Simcock 3, Sylvester Kirk 3, Sir Mark Prescott 3, Saeed bin Suroor 3, Stuart Williams 3, Roger Charlton 2, Karl Burke 2, David Elsworth 2, Paul Midgley 2, Clive Cox 2.
Jockeys Ryan Moore 5, Silvestre de Sousa 5, James Doyle 4, Oisin Murphy 4, Frankie Dettori 4, Adam Kirby 4.
Going GOOD (cloudy)
DAQMAN’S TOP FOUR
4.30 Epsom (Oaks Stakes, ABC guide in yesterday’s column) As I was saying, Anapurna and Mehdaayih give John Gosden a form edge over Aidan O’Brien, with the two yards sharing six of the last seven Oaks.
This may be no country for young men, as the experience of top jockeys is brought to bear on lightly raced, unexposed fillies. Gosden relies on riders aged 45 and 48.
A high draw can be overcome, as Enable (9 of 10), Was (10 of 12) and Snow Fairy (15 of 15) have shown in the decade, but 50% of winners in that time have come out of stalls 2, 3, 4, 5, which boost both Anapurna and Maqsad.
1 Anapurna She won the Lingfield Oaks Trial ears pricked and ticks all the boxes, has the added bonus of 48-year-old Frankie Dettori and the best draw in the race. I took 8.6 on BETDAQ this morning.
2 Mehdaayih Rab Havlin (aged 45) stays aboard the Chester Vase winner from the same stable as Anapurna, but you can see from the winning-jockeys’ list that you need the cream of riders for Epsom.
3 Pink Dogwood Always Aidan O’Brien’s first choice for this race, given low-key racetrack experience without being punished or exposed to her rivals here today.
4 Peach Tree Finished well at Naas in a run almost identical to that of the same stable’s Was before winning the Oaks in 2012. Best outsider under Donnacha O’Brien at 36.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
Maqsad romped home in the Pretty Polly but there is still the worry, says trainer William Haggas, that her stride might be shortening at this Oaks distance.
It may not be a problem – her dam won over the trip – but for the Racing Post headline to say she can prove a class apart ‘if she stays’ is to tip her and yet deny she is value at 6.6 this morning! With such an ‘if’, you need at least the offer I got about the guaranteed stayer, Anapurna.
Bar the top four, they offer 16.5 Frankellina and Manuella de Vega, who has almost five lengths to make up on Mehdaayih. Ralph Beckett thinks she’ll be competitive but that’s a big lead to haul in, albeit she was giving 3lb at Chester and has had only three starts.
Frankellina has had just two, and her Musidora performance was good enough to just about place here. Much has been made of her slow start but she was fresh and had to be restrained in rear anyway.
VERDICT: With so many possible improvers, as you’d expect from among lightly raced fillies, it’s guesswork which will improve the most, so you have to side with the value as it stands.
That to me is Anapurna, with a wild card Peach Tree, offered around 7-1 a place, with Donnacha O’Brien already having toppled Ryan Moore’s Ballydoyle pick in the 2,000 Guineas.
THE PINSTICKERS START TO EPSOM
2.00 Epsom Richard Hannon and Mark Johnson have landed this Woodcote Stakes twice each in the last five seasons but early trading suggests that Charlie Appleby has them up against it today via Group-2-entered Pinatubo.
Pinatubo, out of the mare Lava Flow, is cleverly named after a volcano (it’s near Manila and last erupted in 1991).
There will be those logophiles among punters who will have a double today, Pinatubo the volcano and Anapurna the mountain in the Himalayas, not such a tall order for my Daq Multiples (see below), which I’ll try to pay for with a win bet at around even money Pinatubo.
WATCH THE BIRDIE: 14.0 NICKLAUS
2.35 Epsom Apart from the odd exception that proves the rule, horses aged four and five win this (9-10), and the morning favourite, Greenside, has age (he’s eight) and draw (he’s wide in 13) against him. A bit big to lay in a race which was 7.4 the field in the BETDAQ orange this morning.
William Haggas has two live chances, both drawn low. May and June (three wins) is the right time for Seniority, 8.8 second favourite, with Ryan Moore up; and potential-improver Nicklaus (James Doyle), three from five last season, looked too big at 14.0. Fore!
CUE FOR DARING DETTORI TACTICS
3.10 Epsom (Coronation Cup) Winners of this make up a roll-call of stars: Fame And Glory, St Nicholas Abbey, Cirrus Des Aigles, Postponed, Highland Reel and Cracksman, to name but a few as they say.
Morando would be a short price, if you took his form literally and the going description included the word ’soft.’
He beat Kew Gardens eight lengths in an opportunist ride for the Ormonde at Chester and, at Newbury last October, was 10 lengths or so ahead of Communique (who also made all when he beat Defoe at Newmarket on the last day).
The reason you still have to worry about Morando and Communique is that one or both of them could set a strong pace, which would set up Kew Gardens, the St Leger winner, who needs all of today’s trip and more.
He beat Lah Ti Dar in the Doncaster Classic (Old Persian well beaten). She loves firm ground and Frankie Dettori will be hoping to lie handy and use her speed before the rear runner Kew Gardens comes through to make it a stamina test.
It’s a real game of soldiers and, on this ground, I just prefer 5.4 about Lah Ti Dar to win the tactical battle than I do the 3.8 Kew Gardens to charge through the ranks and blast clear.
FORTUNE COOKIES UP FOR THE CUP
3.45 Epsom Handicaps are very tricky at Epsom, and three of the last four winners have been 10-1, 16-1 and 20-1, so long-term profits then!
We have a Fortune Cookie running here, the royal runner Elector, who has improved only 5lb in the last year, since being beaten six lengths in the Ascot Derby, King Edward V11 Stakes.
But, after wind surgery and being gelded, ‘he’ won in this grade at the Newmarket Craven Meeting, and is earmarked for the Royal Hunt Cup, which Sir Michael Stoute hasn’t won since Carribean Monarch in 2000. He probably needs a penalty from this to get in safely.
Mountain Angel won here at Epsom at the Spring meeting but the runner-up, Aquarium, was then almost five lengths off Elector in that Newmarket race, Jazeel in front of him, beaten a neck by the winner. Elector and Jazeel are now weighted to run a dead-heat.
Borodin, third in the Newbury Spring Cup (1m), was afterwards a beaten favourite in the Thirsk Hunt Cup, and this is his first try at 10 furlongs.
Lorelina and What About Carlo may need some cut in the ground, and Regular Income tries to leap three grades to land his hat-trick.
5.50 Epsom Another Royal Hunt Cup entry, and another Fortune Cookie of ours, is Rip Orff, among the top eight in this 7f handicap which are separated by a mere 4lb.
Rip Orff is currently a pound behind Elector, so their fates are intertwined here and at the royal meeting. I ripped into 6.6 on BETDAQ, having taken 4.0 Elector (there was 4.5 at one time).
This could be a Liverpool-Spurs situation for me, if both get through to Ascot. Surely both bets today can’t get Kaned!
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.00 Epsom (win 10)
BET 10pts win PINATUBO
2.35 Epsom (win 50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 6.5pts win SENIORITY
BET 3.85pts win NICKLAUS
3.10 Epsom (win 30)
BET 6.75pts win (nap) LAH TI DAR
4.30 Epsom (win-50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 6.5pts win ANAPURNA
BET 1.4pts win and place PEACH TREE
FORTUNE COOKIES
(20pt level stakes)
3.45 ELECTOR
5.50 RIP ORFF
EPSOM DAQ MULTIPLES
3 x 3pt win doubles, 1pt win treble
PINATUBO (2.00)
LAH TI DAR (3.10)
ANAPURNA (4.30)
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