BIG-RACE SCENE ON BETDAQ: At last it’s here! Jumping’s big-race week of the season. Daqman moves into action tomorrow with analysis and selections for the Imperial Cup at Sandown, followed by the four-day festival (Tuesday to Friday) at Cheltenham.
CHELTENHAM COUNTDOWN: Friday stats (below) complete day-by-day survey.
DAQMAN’S TRIO TODAY: Daqman has three selections today, including a 5.9 BETDAQ offer at Newcastle. First, two strong bets at Exeter.
FESTIVAL FACTS: GOLD CUP DAY
LAYS LOGIC! Cheltenham next Friday is lays day; nice work if you have a BETDAQ account and some short prices. Here is your starter: favourites have drawn a blank in the 2.50 (for 10 consecutive years) and the 5.30 (11 years). All three favourites for the new Mares Chase (4.50) have been beaten by other short-priced runners.
⭕ 1.30 Cheltenham, Friday March 15 (Triumph Hurdle) Four-year-olds only. Favourites five out of nine, but outsiders at 10-1, 12-1 and 20-1 in the decade.
Winners ratings: 155, 142, 155, 140, 141 notional, 120 notional, 147, 146, 142. Trainers: Nicky Henderson (3) and Willie Mullins (3).
⭕ 2.10 Cheltenham (County Hurdle) Favourites: two out of four but the two others were both 33-1!
Age: 5 and 6 (10/14). Weight: no more than 11st 1lb (10/13). Ratings: 138, 138, 158, 139, 146, 137, 129, 141, 134. Trainers: Dan Skelton (4/8) one favourite but includes 12-1 and 33-1; Willie Mullins (4/9), two of them favourite but includes 20-1 and 25-1.
⭕ 2.50 Cheltenham (Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle) No winning favourite in 10 years, with nine winners double-figure SPs of 11-1, 14-1 (twice), 16-1 (twice), 18-1 (twice), 33-1 (twice) and 50-1.
Age 6 and 7 (12 out of 14). Some 12 out of 16 had won at around 3m.
LAYS LOGIC: Favourites finished: 7-2 fav PU (2016), 9-4 fav 5th, 11-4 fav 4th; 4-1 fav 2nd; 4-1 fav 4th; 7-2 fav 4th; 9-4 fav pulled up; ran out 9-4 fav (2023).
⭕ 3.30 Cheltenham (Gold Cup) Three of the last four favourites have won in the decade and 10/12 have been 9-1 or shorter at SP. Eight of the last nine winners had won two of their last three races, still standing.
Age, 7, 8 and 9 (13/14). Ratings: 152, 166, 175, 167, 166, 164, 175, 164, 174, 173.
Trainers: Willie Mullins (3), Henry de Bromhead (2), Nicky Henderson (2), Gordon Elliott (1), Jessica Harrington (1)
The last 17 winners had already won Graded races (Grade-1 13 times); 17 out of 17 had raced at Cheltenham before; 15 out of 16 had won at 3m or further, and 17 out of 17 had won at least two chases.
⭕ 4.10 Cheltenham (Challenge Cup hunters’ chase) Three favourites have won in the last eight seasons but others include 66-1 (twice) and 25-1. Last nine winners all aged 10 or 11.
Winning trainers: Paul Nicholls (2), Enda Bolger (2). Won over at least 3m (11/13).
⭕ 4.50 Cheltenham (Mares’ Chase) New race in 2021: two out of three for Willie Mullins, both eight-year-olds; both 9-4 SP but not favourite. Ratings 150, 155, 151.
LAYS LOGIC: All three favourites were beaten (2-1, 6-5 and 13-8) all trained Willie Mullins! The 2021 beaten favourite won the race the following year.
⭕ 5.30 Cheltenham (Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle) Favourites: all beaten in the last 11 years. Ages: 5 and 6 (12 out of 14); 7yo 2. Weight: 11st 3lb and above (10/11)
Ratings: 135, 139, 138, 144, 145, 145, 142, 137, 138. Trainers: W Mullins (5), P. Nicholls (2), Joseph O’Brien (2).
LAYS LOGIC: Favourites in last eight seasons finished: 9-4 fav 7th (2016), 9-2 fav 8th; 13-2 fav 12th; 7-2 fav 2nd; 4-1 fav 12th; 4-1 fav 10th; 7-2 fav brought down; 5-1 jt favs 5th and 15th (2023)
IT LOOKS LIKE DONNACHA’S DAY
⭕ 2.10 Exeter The sun shone on Haldon Hill all day yesterday. That was good news for connections of Donnacha, who is far and away the form horse in this but for getting bogged down in heavy ground the last day.
To back him here we must assume he swerves Cheltenham; I can’t see his entries any more; the markets should tell us for sure.
He was second and third on the championship course in the autumn before winning at Warwick. BETDAQ value 3.3.
The handicapper thinks that Spirits Bay is a pound better horse but his sole hurdles success was on heavy. Ditto Moorefields.
CASTING STABLE CAN HOOK THIS
⭕ 3.10 Exeter Goshen needs soft ground on a right-handed track but he’s steered clear of Exeter in his five-year career; Sandown and Wincanton for preference, scooting round the hurdles tracks.
He’s twice tried chases: 23-lengths last of three at Lingfield and 65 lengths third of four at Ascot.
And in his last five hurdles starts, he’s been beaten a total of 109 lengths; placed just the once, third of five at Wincanton in first-time blinkers.
That was his last race when he faced the highly-progressive Nemean Lion, and it wasn’t total disgrace to be thrashed by the Champion Hurdle hope.
The locally-trained Mayhem Mya is the only CD winner; she took a mares’ race over this CD but pulled up the last day, as have two of her last three stablemates to run.
Zambesi Fix, none too successful over fences in 2021, returned to them over Christmas and scored at Chepstow but that was his only success in that sphere.
Fine Casting is with the successful team of Ben Pauling and Kielan Woods. Would have done better the last day if not hampered by a loose horse at Sandown, scene of his Imperial Cup fourth this Saturday last year.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 2.33 Fine Casting this morning.
HARTS SET FOR VALUE STRIKE
⭕ 7.30 Newcastle CD-winner Hartswood has crashed down the handicap, is well drawn and has won after a break. Though today’s opposition looks weak, he was trading at 5.9 in BETDAQ exchanges this morning.
The Fahey stable hasn’t been saddling winners at home but had a nice little earner when Spirit Dancer won a £945k Group-2 Cup race in Saudi Arabia a couple of weeks back.
Grant Tuer who has taken over Lahab from Andrew Balding, has upped him to a mile; he seems versatile.
Another stable move is Torchlight to George Boughey from Team Gosden. Beaten odds-on favourite here at this trip.
Back-to-back Newcastle strikes cost Enola Grey only a small rise up the handicap but it seems to have stopped her, and it’s likely to stop Danielsflyer, too. Star Shield doesn’t win above class 5.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.10 Exeter (stake to win 14pts)
BET 6pts win DONNACHA
3.10 Exeter (win 14, nap)
BET 10pts win FINE CASTING
7.30 Newcastle (win 15)
BET 3pts win HARTSWOOD
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know? DAQMAN’s tips are posted each and every day so he’s always on hand to help with your horse racing betting.
