BACK THE ‘FORGOTTEN’ HORSE AT 18.0 ON BETDAQ: Another Daqman ante-post bet today on a ‘forgotten’ horse which was 18.0 on BETDAQ this morning for the RSA Chase at Cheltenham, as he maps out the rules of value hunting. His nap is at Fakenham, the only surviving jumps card.
TOMORROW: SATURDAY SPECIAL VALUE HUNT: Look out tomorrow as Saturday-king Daqman resumes his challenge to Pricewise. Our man is currently leading 10-2 in the value races this year, after a sensational day on Sunday in which he named Last Instalment (WON 8-1) for the Irish Hennessy Gold Cup, napping Vautour (WON 11-4) and also tipping Tiger Roll (2nd 16-1), so no losing bets.
IT’S THE BIG LEAP FOR GEVREY CHAMBERTIN, POTENTIAL CHELTENHAM STAR
Rule No 1: Punters forget. Once upon a time – it seems ages ago now but it was only a year or so back – I put up Gevrey Chambertin as a horse to follow. I was right about the horse. Wrong about the timing.
This is a real relentless galloper but he was overfaced, pitched into top-class when still only a baby. His sequence of four out of five ended when he hit the Graded-race wall.
‘Gevrey’ was played as a beaujolais. But he needed time to mature into a good wine. A long holiday and a return marked by stable confidence – he went straight for a Grade 3 – paid off at Haydock in November.
Tomorrow, still only six, he takes an even bigger leap forward, switching from hurdles to Grade-2 fences to justify his position in the RSA Chase market.
He is bred for big-time chasing. His sire, Dom Alco, is responsible for Silviniaco Conti, Neptune Colonges, Al Ferof and Grands Crus. And it’s good news on the dam’s side, too: in fact, Gevrey Chambertin is Grands Crus’ full-brother.
And tomorrow’s race at Ascot, which used to be called the Reynoldstown, is a good RSA pointer, so good the race has been renamed the RSA Trial Novices’ Chase.
I’d written my stuff for Gevrey Chambertin to run next Wednesday in the BETDAQ No Premium Charge Novices’ Chase at Doncaster, expecting an easy launch over fences.
But, if indeed he goes tomorrow, success at Ascot would not ripple the RSA market but raise a wave that would see his 18.0 on BETDAQ quickly overwhelmed. Take it.
Rule No 2: The Price Must Be Right: When you look at an ante-post orange you are not trying to pick the winner (all well and good if you do) but an offer which will reduce to give you trade, maybe make your personal ‘book’ on the race underround, with percentages in your favour, enabling you to back more than one horse. So only bet when the price is right.
If you try to pick the winner of a big race now, you will more than likely be on a form horse at the front of the market, taking prices which will be as good if not better on the day. You need a closer.
Rule No 3: You’re Not Backing Horses: Even harder to understand. If you want to win money betting, you must always pick prices, not horses.
Successful punting is about finding offers which are too big, so that you must win in the long run. Again you are hoping to trade the prices you take in the morning. You need a closer.
That’s why I moan on about midweek racing. It is very much harder to find those nuggets on the morning of a dross day, because so many of the runners have short form peaks and you just never know whose turn it is, who’s ‘got up’ for the day.
The solution? You will find market movement on BETDAQ will reveal the ‘real runners’ in a race, the hot contenders, in the early afternoon before the ‘off’.
Rule No 4: Bet with BETDAQ: So the why and wherefore of betting on BETDAQ is that you get sub-110% value lists of offers in the orange of a morning and then you get market guidance through the day of what to expect, with multiple trading options. Keep your Daq up! That’s gotta be Rule No 4.
MUD-LOVER CROOKSTOWN RATES THE NAP AT FAKENHAM
They’re faking it at Fakenham. More pretend racing in the mud. Ah well, at least the show is still on the road, even if the wheels are axle deep.
Notice the top-jockey switches, after the abandonment of Sandown. Tony McCoy takes the one Fakenham ride on Slaney Star (1.15).
Richard Johnson would have deserted Tim Vaughan – though he had a good win for that trainer on Figaro on Wednesday – for a Philip Hobbs ride at Sandown but is now able to move to Fakenham for two Vaughan horses, Destroyer Deployed (1.45) and Robbers Roost (3.20).
There is already (at 9.a.m. this morning) a springer in the Slaney Star market: Hunky Dorey (from Japanese meaning ‘easy street’ and ‘ship shape’) is in to 3.0, though forecast 10-1 in the trade paper. Sellers are not my business, though signs are that Hunky Dorey is ship shape for this one.
The gelding Destroyer Deplored faces a consistent Points and hurdles mare, Spirit Oscar, in the beginners’ chase (1.45). Both have potential for the big fences on breeding but ‘Oscar’ surely has more scope, two years younger.
The orange added up to 108 and 102% in the first two races, and the novices’ handicap hurdle (2.15) was 104%. So I ought to have found a bet somewhere to pinch some of that value.
Maybe it has to be Crookstown (2.15), who is a winner in the mud, whereas Mistral Reine, who took a similar CD race in December on good to soft, trailed 34 lengths when asked to do a repeat but on heavy.
Venetia Williams seems to want the featured price (2.45) but I doubt whether I could dutch Elenika and Browns Brook. In fact, I am blind in the market at time of writing, because That’s The Deal has just dropped out so the orange needs time to adjust
Doctor Harper (3.20) may be a vuinerable favourite, so far kept to good and good to soft since his initial bumper win, while Saffron Wells’ form is moderate,.
I will take a chance with Venetia’s mare, Bobbie Boru, stepped up in trip and therefore unexposed, getting weight from the principles yet 7.2 in a 103% orange. Such poor racing, she merits ‘outsider of the day’!
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 10pts win (nap) CROOKSTOWN (2.15 Fakenham)
BET 3.2pts win BOBBIE BORU (3.20 Fakenham)
ANTE-POST: BET 1.75pts win (to win 30 points) GEVREY CHAMBERTIN at 18.0 (RSA Chase, Cheltenham)
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