TOMORROW: EARLY ASCOT POSITIONS ON BETDAQ: Where’s the value on tomorrow’s Champions Day card? With BETDAQ, of course. Daqman takes you through the betting, race by race, concluding his See How They Won feature with a closer look at the Champion Stakes facts and figures.
TOMORROW MORNING’S BIG RACE IN AUSTRALIA: Aidan O’Brien could land that 25th Group 1 early tomorrow morning, as he challenges with Johannes Vermeer for the Caulfield Cup in Australia, and could equal Bobby Frankel’s training record. Daqman thinks a mare will win.
TODAY: ACE PLACE BET AT 11.0 FOR WINCANTON: Today’s big value in England is the BETDAQ 11.0 at Wincanton about a trainer who just can’t keep his horses out of the first three (12 in a row, still standing, when they’re fancied).
BETDAQ IS CHAMPION FOR VALUE
The going for CHAMPIONS DAY at Ascot tomorrow changed to ‘soft all over’ this morning after rain during the night. Here are race-by-race betting comparisons if you are looking for value from BETDAQ layers.
1.25 Ascot tomorrow Big Orange was biggest of all on BETDAQ this morning for tomorrow’s opening championship race, the Long Distance Cup.
Orange was 7.6 in the BETDAQ orange but as low as 9-2 with six of the nine bookmakers quoted in the Racing Post markets analysis.
2.00 Ascot tomorrow Tasleet, 19.0 BETDAQ offers for the Sprint title but just 10-1 with Hills, and Brando were best value on BETDAQ, where 26.0 offers compared with as much as 10 points less with layers.
2.40 Ascot tomorrow Mainly 7-2 and 4-1 for the Fillies And Mares, Coronet could be had at 6.8 offers on BETDAQ.
3.15 Ascot tomorrow Looking for a shock winner in the Champion Stakes? Frankie Dettori, who rides Ascot so well, is available at 27.0 on Persuasive though as low as 16-1 in two places among the top 10 bookmakers.
THE WORD IS TO FOLLOW STOUTE
3.50 Ascot tomorrow (Champion Stakes) Just when life seemed easier for Cracksman in this, both Churchill and Ulysses dropping out, the money came for Ulysses’ stablemate, Poet’s Word, 7.6 on BETDAQ this morning.
Poet’s Word has surged 21lb since his handicapping days last season, despite only one success since, at Group-3 level.
But significantly it was on the soft and, perhaps the more significantly, it was followed by a big leap forward to a narrow defeat in the Group-1 Irish Champion Stakes. Sir Michael Stoute clearly has another delayed improver.
Two snags. The trainer has not won this since the turn of the century and four-year-olds are only 2-13 in 15 seasons, in which the race has been dominated by older horses (five-year-olds 4-7).
But two wins for Stoute since 1997 is better than Aidan O’Brien, who hasn’t won it once! Nor have Richard Hannon (Barney Roy) and John Gosden (Cracksman).
O’Brien’s Cliffs Of Moher, though 7-1 in three places on the bookies lists, was 11.5 on BETDAQ this morning.
The man to be on in the decade was Jean-Claude Rouget, who has scored with Literato (2007) and last year through Almanzor (2016).
If he can land the prize with Brametot, the French Guineas and Derby winner, it will be the fourth French success in 11 years and the 14th since the great days of Sir Ivor and Brigadier Gerard.
The trip suits French horses well because they are trained for it all season; it’s the distance of their Derby and Oaks.
PLACE WOLVES GRAB MOLINEAUX
1.40 Wincanton Colin Tizzard has won this race twice in the last five years, and the current Tizzard returns for horses starting at 8-1 or shorter is 113U112221233. In form or what!
The stable choice, Molineaux, looks big at 11.0 on his handicap debut. The Kings Theatre gelding (out of a Roselier mare) is well related and ran his best r ace on this course.
2.15 Wincanton Neil Mulholland’s string is 0-27 and but he tells the Racing Post this morning that he thinks this race should suit Bishops Court, who had back-to-back wins on the course as part of a four-timer in the early days of the year.
The Tizzards’ nine-year-old Gentleman Jon has won four times at Wincanton and very much depends on the state of the course. ‘Jon’ (5.4 on BETDAQ) wants it on top’ the Bishop (12.5) likes it soft.
I can back both because their odds are bolstered by Roll The Dough, who has had his problems since 2015, and others in this are far too old for the quick track.
3.50 Fakenham Leading jumpers trainer, Dan Skelton, 34% at Fakenham, should get the nap on track with Holryale, too good surely for this moderate bunch.
BONNEVAL IS VALUE IN THE CUP
06.30 Saturday, Caulfield Cup Aidan O’Brien attempts his 25th Group-1 of the season with Johannes Vermeer (drawn 2), second in the Ladbrokes (Caulfield) Stakes trial,
Another Irish challenger, old-timer Wicklow Brave, has been unlucky with the draw (stall 16 of 17). I think a mare will win.
Nearly 60% of winners of tomorrow morning’s Australian Group-1 handicap had been seen in either the Turnbull Stakes at Flemington or the Caulfield Stakes in the last two weeks.
Wonder horse Winx made a procession of this year’s Turnbull, Ventura Storm (2nd) and Humidor (3rd) heading the chasing pack, with ex-Ballydoyle Sir Issac Newton fifth.
The Ladbrokes Caulfield Stakes produced a head defeat for his former stablemate, Johannes Vermeer, now better off with the third horse home, Jon Snow. Single Gaze, Inference, Bonneval and Abbey Marie were behind.
Be warned that both Turnbull and Caulfield races are 1m 2f and tomorrow’s Cup is a mile and a half. Johannes Vermeer has won only at 7f and 1m 2f (Group 3) but went close over the 12 furlongs in the Ballyroan at the Curragh.
Expect to see Hughie Morrison’s stayer Marmelo, drawn wide, get across early and take them on. He won the Kergorlay (1m 7f) at Deauville in August.
Ventura Storm was second in the St Leger when raced by Richard Hannon. His jockey tomorrow, Damien Oliver, has won the Caulfield Cup four times.
Four-year-olds have won half of the last 34 Cups, with mares (seven wins) the most successful, and Bonneval looks primed for the race under Kerrin McEvoy.
She’s been seen only over shorter – including in the Caulfield Stakes, remember – since running away with the Australian Oaks at Randwick earlier in the year.
Good luck to Pricewise with Harlem but no horse from the one stall has won this since 1943.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BULL’S-EYE BET (win 50): 5pts win and place MOLINEAUX (1.40 Wincanton)
BET 4pts win INFERNAL MAJESTY (1.40 Clairefontaine)
BET 4.75pts to win 20 GENTLEMAN JON, and 2pts win and palace BISHOPS COURT (2.15 Wincanton)
SUPERNAP: 20pts win HOLRYALE (3.50 Fakenham)
BET 4pts win BONNEVAL (06.30 tomorrow, Caulfield, Australia)
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