SANDOWN SHORT SHOT NAPPED: Daqman goes nap on Snap Shots in his first-day coverage of the Eclipse meeting at Sandown Park today, but looks across the cards at Haydock and Warwick for bets in the new nursery season.
SANDOWN LONG SHOT FOR BIG HIT: In picking his first bull’s-eye bet of the big meeting, he takes the opportunity to discuss some of the win-and-place betting opportunities on BETDAQ. There will be another bull’s-eye big hitter tomorrow. Current profit: 192 points.
ON THE OCHE FOR AN 11.5 BULL’S EYE
Since you asked. I usually use win-and-place betting in this column when I have found a horse at big offers, say 16.0, and I’m looking for a decent return from the place part. So ‘2pts win and place’ (to win 30), where the target profit-yield is quoted only for the win part of the bet.
If I bet win and place at shorter odds, it’s probably because I’m using the place part as cover for the win stakes. So 2.5pts win and place (to win 20) at 9.0. That might be instead of picking another horse as the stakes saver.
Sometimes I might think that a horse has a very good chance of a place but not of winning. For example, I might have backed Kingfisher (2nd 25-1) for a place in the Irish Derby won by Australia.
In that case, my profit-yield target is not the win but the place. At 30.0, I might bet 5pts a place hoping to win 20 if Kingfisher finishes second to Australia. But I’d be an idiot if, although it cuts into my margins on the place bet, I didn’t have a small punt on the win, just in case. So my bet might be: 1pt win and 5pts place Kingfisher.
Summary: If I write ‘2pts win and place’, it means same stake the place as for the win; if I intend anything else (a bigger win or bigger place part of the bet), I will say so.
Today’s Bull’s-Eye Bet to win 50 points was 11.5 on BETDAQ this morning (see below). I really think it is value, and the place part at the same stake will still bring in some profit if he is only second or third.
In fact, the place part, taken this morning at early-mouse offers, could turn out to be as good as the win at SP, if there’s a big gamble on him!
SNAP SHOTS IN THE SANDOWN PICTURE
This is a pivotal day for young horses. Between now and the King George is reckoned the turning point for three-year-olds against older horses, and the first day of the Sandown Eclipse Meeting has a strong bias toward them.
Meanwhile, at Haydock and Warwick, the nursery season (two-year-old handicaps) is clearly under way with, in recent seasons, Richard Fahey challenging Team Hannon as King Of The Nurseries.
2.00 Sandown Not a winning favourite in sight in the decade, despite a massive edge from the draw bias: seven of the 10 winners came from stalls 1-through-4, with no success higher than gate 7.
Going for a hat-trick, Amanda Perrett will have been disappointed to see her improver, Extrasolar, out in Esher High Street (stall 15). Apricot Sky, Goldream and Normal Equlibrium have also been done no favours by the draw.
As winners only of their maidens – always a bad sign – Fine ‘N Dandy and Trader Jack are discarded, along with Judge ‘N Jury – 10 now and not won for two years – and Taajub, also without a turf win for around two years.
Tagula Night, who is off his highest winning mark at the age of eight, is unlikely to score back to back. Sir Pedro has had to drop to selling class to win this season.
Lady Gibraltar comes out in front of some of these on big-field form but is another hard to win with and had her hey-day as a three-year-old.
The pair I like, for master trainers of sprinters Andrew Balding and Clive Cox are New Fforest and Milly’s Gift, both with claimers worth at least a length in any blanket finish over this trip, maybe more from their low draws.
The ground couldy be on the firm side for ‘Milly’ but I know that the trainer has brought her along slowly and she will be repaying his patience soon. I took 7.4 New Fforest on BETDAQ.
2.30 Sandown You have to decide about Stimulation’s only first-crop winner (19 starters), Union Rose, whether he was flattered by his 100-1 second in the Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot.
BETDAQ layers say he was and are tempting you with 5.5 this morning.
Early-mouse punters were keen on Mukhmal, who didn’t get home after showing plenty of pace in a higher class juvenile event at Royal Ascot, the Norfolk.
In front of him that day, Snap Shots is seen as a soft-ground colt because of his debut success in May but there’s nothing in his pedigree to warrant that; and the 95 juvenile winners of his sire, Kodiac, show a propensity for good-to-firm ground.
Richard Hannon deletes Dame Liberty in favour of Beacon. His selection beat Fine Prince only narrowly at Salisbury but Fine Prince was behind Snap Shots and Mukhmal at Ascot.
4.10 Sandown There is strong edge for three-year-olds, with their best-position-per-race form in this: 12101111. With Karraar hard to back until learning to settle, and Stormardal seemingly a soft-ground colt, I took 7.0 Rydan, a recent course-and-distance winner.
Rydan needs to be held up until the last possible moment – over to you, Frankie – and there may be plenty more than 7.0 available in running about this hold-up horse.
There’s not much to choose between Vital Evidence and Chain of Events, so I leave you to pick your stakes saver.
4.45 Sandown Three-year-olds are 11301 in this and, like Good Evans off 8st last year, the second-season bottomweight Late Shipment could easily get away from them, wearing cheekpieces for the first time and getting lumps of weight from others which are of any interest.
Improvement has always been on the cards over a longer distance this year from this weak juvenile, who is big value in the BETDAQ market this morning at around 11.5.
4.20 Warwick/7.15 Haydock: Beacon would have to do well at Sandown to boost River Spirit at Warwick but the real connection here is between these two nurseries.
When Don Sigfredo (6.0 on BETDAQ this morning for the 4.20 Warwick) was runner-up at Wolver in April, he gave weight and a beating into third to Perardua, a winner since at Catterick.
Perardua was early-mouse favourite for the 7.15 nursery at Haydock tonight, with Richard Fahey now in front of Team Hannon as winning most nurseries trainer.
Fahey won the first running of this race last year, from the Dascombe (second) and Hannon (fourth) runners. Perardua also has an edge on this field, in that she’s already a winner with cut in the ground.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each bet staked to win 20 points, except the bull’s-eye bet)
BET 3pts win NEW FFOREST (2.00 Sandown)
BET 11pts win (nap) SNAP SHOTS (2.30 Sandown)
BET 3.3pts win RYDAN (4.10 Sandown)
BET 4pts win DON SIGFREDO (4.20 Warwick)
BULL’S-EYE BET (to win 50 points): 4.75pts win and place LATE SHIPMENT (4.45 Sandown)
BET 4pts win PERARDUA (7.15 Haydock)
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