5-2 HIT FOR 15 NAPS OUT OF 21: Daqman’s amazing naps run continued yesterday with Montoya’s Son (WON 5-2), successful nap number 15 from 21, including nine bankers in a row. The sequence is now 111114123131111411211. The naps since Sunday have been:
WON 2-11 THE NEW ONE (banker)
WON 9-4 NEBULA STORM
2nd 5-4 FAR WEST
WON 4-9 MILES TO MEMPHIS (banker)
WON 5-2 MONTOYA’S SON
IT’S ON A PLATE FOR DAQMAN: Daqman is already assured of beating Pricewise in their value-bets challenge, with a 67-31 lead on the Flat. Today they look at tomorrow morning’s Cox Plate in Australia.
BETDAQ RACES AT DONCASTER: But first Daqman assesses the four-race BETDAQ sponsorship on the opening day at Doncaster which has attracted no fewer than 68 runners.
LAST ECHO MASSIVE AT 17.5 ON BETDAQ
2.55 Doncaster (Betdaq 3% Commission Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden Stakes) Thahab cost a million euros, is half-brother to a Lowther Stakes winner and has Team Hannon’s two-year-old army behind him.
Only True Respect and Mutarakez can beat him, says the BETDAQ early-mouse market, with 14.0 bar three in this 18-runner field, tempting me to find an outsider.
How about a colt from a yard that won this two years ago, has had a ‘disguised’ run (because heavy ground) and is the son of Europe’s leading first-season sire, Zebedee. I call for Justice First at 21.0. Boing, said Zebedee!
4.05 Doncaster (Betdaq Betting Exchange £30 Free Bet Handicap) Three-year-olds have lost only one running of this race in the last decade, and that was when Zipp was short-headed last year.
Zipp is back for more, representing the older generation today, and three-year-olds are thin on the ground, though his stablemate, Last Echo, looks interesting propping up the handicap, and with Cam Hardie taking off another 3lb., coming out of stall 7.
Stalls 1, 2, 4, 6, 8 have won this in the last six seasons, and another three-year-old, first-time-visored Spectator, has the one draw.
You can make out cases for others – Novirak and Norway Cross are also well drawn – but I stuck with the three-year-olds, as always likely to show improvement, taking 9.2 Spectator on BETDAQ early mouse, and a massive 17.5 Last Echo, both with form on soft ground.
4.40 Doncaster (Betting 50% Commission First 3 Months Handicap) In a punter-friendly orange, BETDAQ layers offered four horses within a range of only 1.1 this morning, early mouse. Open race, or what!
With 108% market, if I could knock something out at the front, then delete the rags, I would leave myself an underround to back the remainder in a can’t-lose situation. Easier said than done.
Kleo should excel in this company, dropping down in grade from a Listed fourth behind two with place efforts at Group 2 and 3 levels.
Ghazi could still be anything, back from his long absence. His sire gets mostly top-of-the-ground horses but his dam (half-sister to a Derby winner) is by soft-ground sire Pivotal. Ghazi and Kleo were both around 5.5 on BETDAQ, at the time of writing.
5.10 Doncaster (Betdaq No Premium Charge Amateur Riders’ Handicap) Serena Brotherton has a fabulous 26% strike-rate this year, with 10 winners from 39 rides. Her mount, Hussar Ballad, goes well fresh, is nicely drawn on the rail and was a tasty 14.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
TEAK LOOKS THROWN IN AT FAKENHAM
THE NAP Big fields and maidens, and the soft ground at Doncaster and Newbury, swerve me to nap at Fakenham, where the first four races were 104-107% in the orange on BETDAQ this morning.
The one I like is Teak (3.40), the Cesarewitch seventh, who has won five times on the Flat and over hurdles since June. He gets in here off a very lenient mark.
Only light drizzle is expected on good ground at Fakenham, which will suit this seemingly top-of-the-ground performer, who has Richard Johnson to do the steering.
I say ‘seemingly’ because he might surprise on an easier surface this winter, since he is by Barathea, whose top progeny have all enjoyed good-to-soft ground.
DRAW IS THE COX PLATE CRITERION
7.40 a.m. (Saturday) Moonee Valley (Cox Plate) The stats say keep an eye on previous winners (there have been three back-to-back wins this century) and previous placed horses.
Link that with the draw: nine of the 10 in the decade have come from gates 3, 4, 5, 6 (twice), 7 (three times) and 9. And seven runners-up have come from 2 to 8.
Happy Trails was beaten only a short-head last year but is seven years old now and the current trend is to young horses aged three and four.
There’s been only one winner over the age of six since 1992, and only three since 1974, which also reduces my confidence in Andrew Balding’s front-runner, Side Glance, who was sixth a year ago (Foreteller fourth).
Marco Botti’s miler Guest of Honour (10) and Aidan O’Brien’s Adelaide (13) have to come from difficult stalls starts, and we remember Adelaide getting shuffled back under Ryan Moore when third in the Prix Niel.
Today’s 1m 2f is his best trip and Moore won’t want to make the same mistake. Adelaide stays further but is not on trial here for the Melbourne Cup.
Former English actress Gai Waterhouse, who appeared in Dr Who, has had the luck of the draw for Caulfield Guineas third Wandjina and Moonee Group-2 winner Almalad, though that was also at a mile.
Gai trained Almalad’s sire, Al Maher, to win a Guineas at Flemington, and his progeny don’t get further than the mile. Like Royal Descent, Wandjina is a maiden. He is related to sprinters.
Criterion (gate 6) is just about weighted to avenge his recent Caulfield defeat by Fawkner (Side Glance, Sacred Falls, Happy Trails, Foreteller behind).
Peaking at the right time here, Criterion was catching Fawkner at the finish that day, and a fast past – or some rain – will suit. Adelaide will also come into it as those milers fall back towards the finish. The sunshine expected after a foggy start to the day should give him perfect conditions.
DAQMAN’S BETS (all bets staked to win 20 points)
BET 1pt win and place JUSTICE FIRST (2.55 Doncaster)
BET 10pts win (nap) TEAK (3.40 Fakenham)
BET 2.4pts win SPECTATOR and 1.2pts win and place LAST ECHO (4.05 Doncaster)
BET 4.4pts win on each GHAZI and KLEO (4.40 Doncaster)
BET 1.5pts win and place HUSSAR BALLAD (5.10 Doncaster)
TOMORROW MORNING: BET 4pts win ADELAIDE and 3pts win CRITERION (07.40 Moonee Valley)
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