TWO NAPS UP OUT OF THREE AT GOODWOOD: Daqman landed his second nap in three days at Goodwood yesterday, taking him to 36 winners in the 28 days of July. He also used his lays logic to give four reasons to oppose the morning favourite, Derby second Hoo Ya Mal, in the Gordon Stakes. It finished third.
WON 6-5 NASHWA (Thursday Nassau Stakes nap)
WON 11-4 SECRET STATE (Wednesday)
WON 14-1 FOREST FALCON (Tuesday from 19.0 on BETDAQ)
WON 6-4 KYPRIOS (Tuesday Goodwood Cup nap)
VALUE TO BE ON THE SPRINT WITH BETDAQ: Today at Goodwood is the toughest betting day of all. Though wide open in the BETDAQ betting, the King George sprint is rated to be a blanket finish and the opening stamina test is a marathon test for those who’ve never tried before. Headlines:
PLANE TO LAND IT FOR WILLIAMS
EXPECT COMMAND PERFORMANCE
LAZULI BEST IN BLANKET FINISH
BACKING ARAMAX AT BETDAQ 19.5
PLANE TO LAND IT FOR WILLIAMS
⭕ 1.50 Goodwood (Goodwood Handicap) We saw some fabulous stayers in the Goodwood Cup on Tuesday. I liaised with friends in Kentucky while they were having a party to watch it.
They were amazed that Kyprios, Stradivarius and Trueshan could still finish so fast at the end of two miles seemingly run at ‘an American pace.’
Today in this opener, we are up another half-mile but down five grades into marathon territory for horses that, generally speaking, have no speed but, boy, how some of them can gallop! You usually need the lungs of younger horses with a light weight to win it.
The Nathaniel filly, Mellow Magic, has been out of the first three only once in 13 starts and she’s been backed during the week for this first attempt beyond 2m.
Super Superjack has missed a place just once in 12 races up to 2m 1f, and Solent Gateway can boast third to Trueshan in the Northumberland Plate.
Hydroplane has been hurdling since a Flat hat-trick three years ago but railed round Chester at a lower-level in June to win six lengths in first-time cheekpieces. Trainer Ian Williams (also runs Reshoun) has won this race twice in the decade.
Another jumper back to the Flat in fine form is Zoffee, who won the Northumberland Vase (the Plate compensation race).
Master Milliner is also a useful stayer – and a course winner – but looks a shade high in the handicap.
Richard Hughes, who trained last year’s winner, has Sea Appeal in form at the right time.
Betdaq Betting Exchange value 9.9 Mellow Magic, 12 Hydroplane
EXPECT COMMAND PERFORMANCE
⭕ 3.00 Goodwood (Golden Mile) Does the draw matter at Goodwood? You bet! Seven of the last eight winners of this big-field mile came out of stalls 1 to 5. And the first four by stall over a mile on Tuesday with similar quantity was 1, 6, 3, 4.
I had a couple of tasty punts in this, back to back (2017-18), with Master The World and Seniority. Both were drawn 3.
Today’s favourite in stall 3? The powerful team of Charlie Appleby and William Buick with Noble Dynasty, trying to follow Mischief Magic, Secret State, Warren Point and New London this week already, plus one for James Doyle.
Noble Dynasty’s target was the Hunt Cup but he was balloted out and went instead for a win at the Newmarket July Meeting.
Blue For You (from the one stall today) was beaten only half a length at York, giving 3lb to the winner, Eilean Dubh (stall 6 here), who is penalised 3lb, so they meet at levels. Young Fire (5) was fifth.
Lawful Command (4) won four out of five, climbing the ranks from class 6 in the autumn to class 4 here at Goodwood in the Spring, before finishing fourth in the Britannia at Royal Ascot.
He sneaks in here as a reserve (Montassib is out); now gets weight and has a better draw over the third that day, Jimi Hendrix (21).
Orbaan (2) is often thereabouts but needs to drop a few pounds and not many seven-year-olds win a race like this. Like Young Fire, prefers a bit of cut.
On the other side in 20, Shining Blue has raced only three times (3-3) and won them all and Rebel Territory (3-4), down the middle out of 9, is a course winner, and Sinjaari (10) was unlucky in the Hunt Cup.
BETDAQ value 3.7 Noble Dynasty, 15 Lawful Command
LAZULI BEST IN BLANKET FINISH
⭕ 3.35 Goodwood (King George Stakes) Low numbers again, say the stats (stalls 1 to 7 eight out of nine) but not a huge field.
Raasel (out of 3) has climbed the rungs of the ratings ladder (73 to 108), with eight successes from class 4 to Grade 3 since September but had only a neck to spare over Mitbaahy, giving 5lb, in the Charge at Sandown early this month.
Goodwood can be chaos for sprinters at the finish but look at this in the Sandown race: Mitbaahy (gate 4 today) was ‘bumped and squeezed’, the fourth horse, Existent (here in 5), ‘not clear run’, had to be switched, going down a length and a half, and Equilateral – out of the one stall today – was just behind sixth (‘not clear run repeatedly’)
Raasel is 2-2 at Goodwood and the only other CD winner is the consistent Acklam Express (stall 10 here), who was third to the Aussie champion Nature Strip in the Kings Stand (Ponntos in rear) but comfortably beaten by Lazuli at Meydan.
In fact, the ratings are incredibly tight (if you measure sprint distances as 3lb for a length): 110 Acklam Express, 109 Lazuli and Ponntos, 108 Khaadem, the Palace House winner, a neck in front of Existent (needs cut).
Then 108 Raasel, 107 Equilateral and Mitbaahy, which suggests a length covers eight horses!
BETDAQ helped this morning, with as low as 107% total offers, keeping the market open from 4.9 Raasel and Mitbaahy to 23.0 (twice) and 37.0.
Both trainer form (Charlie Appleby) and jockey form (William Buick) this week point up Lazuli. He was behind in the Kings Stand but is a natural speedster and they are suited by Goodwood. I took 8.4.
⭕ 4.10 Goodwood If somehow the big prizes escape the Appleby-Buick team today, they should get consolation in this Group 3 with Rebel’s Romance, who slammed Kemari on the July Course.
BACKING ARAMAX AT BETDAQ 19.5
⭕ 6.00 Galway (Galway Blazers Chase) Born By The Sea bids for back-to-back wins in this but the third horse last year, Aramax (hampered when taking a challenging position two out), is 16lb better off.
BETDAQ value 19.5 Aramax
⭕ 6.35 Galway (Guinness Handicap) Wilie Mullins, who has won this four times in seven seasons, saddles Baby Zeus, fourth last year and 2lb better off in the ratings.
Ruler Legend, not disgraced at Royal Ascot, meets Shark Bay on the same terms after beating that one in a five-lengths romp at Naas.
BETDAQ value 6.8 Ruler Legend, 11.5 Baby Zeus
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.50 Goodwood (win 50)
BET 5.5pts win MELLOW MAGIC
BET 4.5pts win HYDROPLANE
3.00 Goodwood (win 14 x 2)
BET 5pts win NOBLE DYNASTY
BET 1pt win LAWFUL COMMAND
3.35 Goodwood (win 50)
BET 6.75pts win LAZULI
4.10 Goodwood (win 10 nap)
BET 10pts win REBEL’S ROMANCE
6.00 Galway (win 50)
BET 2.75pts win ARAMAX
6.35 Galway (win 20 x 2)
BET 3.5pts win RULER LEGEND
BET 2pts win BABY ZEUS
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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