OUTLANDER FOR DAQMAN GOLD GLORY: Daqman checked out the stats on the Gold Cup and came up with Outlander. He checked the stables in form and came up with Outlander. Read all about it, and join him in taking huge BETDAQ offers elsewhere on the card.
MASTER GAMBLE ON BETDAQ AT 48.0: What about this one? He took 48.0 Master Blueyes to win 100 points in the opening race, ante-post on BETDAQ. Now read his analysis and find more bets at 20.0, 26.0, 56.0 70.0 and 80.0. He’s challenging Pricewise as usual, with the score: Daqman 20, Pricewise 13.
LUCKY SEVEN LINE UP FOR GOLD
The Irish are neck and neck. Neck and neck with each other, that is, now that Willie Mullins has suddenly hit back at Gordon Elliott. Paul Nicholls and Colin Tizzard have had a complete whitewash running into Gold Cup day today.
Here are the front seven contenders in the big-race market for this afternoon’s Gold Cup, with the stable form at Cheltenham this week:
5 wins GORDON ELLIOTT (22F21 OUTLANDER rated 168)
Stable form at Cheltenham this week: 103110000120F1304P2U
4 wins WILLIE MULLINS (23-213 DJAKADAM rated 165)
Stable form: 000244032U3PP003P00030P0000P04101P01100
1 win JESSICA HARRINGTON (3-3211 SIZING JOHN, rated 167)
Stable form: 0100
0 win COLIN TIZZARD (43121 CUE CARD, rated 170) and (1-2111 NATIVE RIVER, rated 168)
Stable form: 0P0PP02P00P00
0 win PAUL NICHOLLS (0-3F21 SAPHIR DU RHEU, rated 156)
Stable form: PF040000400000300
0 win JONJO O’NEILL (3-P30U MORE OF THAT, rated 157)
Stable form: 0P22FP0
YOUR HORSE-BY-HORSE ABC GUIDE
3.30 Cheltenham Gold Cup
A Grade 1 or 2 senior winner (10-10)
B Aged 8 or 9 (eight out of nine)
C Rated 166-180 (nine out of 10)
D First four or five in the market (nine out of 10)
X Black mark. Horses aged 10 and over are 1-81
ABCD Outlander
Graduated to Grade-1 status by beating Don Poli and Djakadam in the Lexus Chase over Christmas
ABD Djakadam
Twice Gold Cup second and beat Outlander in the John Durkan but the form was reversed 17 days later
AB Irish Cavalier
Won Punchestown festival Grade A and the Charlie Hall in October but not in the same form since.
AB More Of That
World Hurdle winner 2014 but lost his way over fences (6th Lexus). All hangs on second breathing op.
ACD Native River
Dramatic progress to win Hennessy and Welsh National back to back. Second in NH Chase here 2016.
ACD Sizing John
Lost four in a row against Douvan over shorter but stepped up to 3m took Irish Gold Cup last month
ACDX Cue Card
Ryanair and King George winner who had every chance of gold last year when fell 3 out. Now aged 11.
AC Bristol De Mai
Has had his problems but jumped soundly at Haydock to win the Peter Marsh and age to improve.
AX Smad Place
Ten now. Sixth and eighth in previous Gold Cups but won Hennessy over a similar trip. A nearly horse
BC Champagne West
Gold Cup Handicap second. Lost his way with Philip Hobbs. Two wins for Henry De Bromhead.
B Saphir Du Rheu
Well-regarded World Hurdle second; back to form over fences last twice, including at Cheltenham.
B Tea For Two
One-time top handicap hurdler; started well over fences 2015 but outpointed at Graded level since.
– Minella Rocco
Won 2016 NH Chase at the festival last year. Lost his way recently but cheekpieces first time today.
NEGATIVES Cue Card is a veteran now. Djakadam has failed in the race twice before. Outlander and Sizing John are up in trip. Native River must improve again from handicap success.
HIDDEN HORSES Both More Of That and Saphir Du Rheu haven’t shown their full potential over fences but this is a hard race to do it in.
VERDICT Outlander at 12.0 on BETDAQ this morning is the value. Given a holiday since beating Don Poli and Djakadam in the Lexus, proved that day that he acts on better going. His former reputation as a heavy-ground horse now reads differently: it translates as ‘this horse has stamina and guts,’ and now you can add ‘speed.’
Native River improved dramatically in the autumn but his stable has not yet shown the same form at the festival this week. The handicapper says that Cue Card has deteriorated 6lb since last year.
MASTER GAMBLE ON BETDAQ AT 48.0
1.30 Cheltenham (Triumph Hurdle)
STATS All bar one winner in the decade has come from the first half dozen in the closing market. Most had had only two or three hurdles runs.
FORM Punters who saw Charli Parcs beat Master Blueyes eight lengths at Kempton over Christmas are in denial about his fall on the same course in the Adonis Hurdle, when Master Blueyes won. So Charli Parcs is shorter in the betting.
Both have a massive task on to beat Defi Du Seuil who has the edge on a line through Evening Hush: 11 lengths off Master Blueyes in the Adonis but 13 behind Defi in the Future Champions at Chepstow.
As for the Irish, there has been very little between Bapaume, Mega Fortune and Landofhopeandglory in a couple of races and, when they’re all in a heap, you look elsewhere
VERDICT: Whatever beats the very smart sequence winner Defi Du Seuil wins. Master Blueyes is the improver at the right time. I took 48.0 ante-post.
CHARMIL SOUND OF ALL THAT JAZZ
2.10 Cheltenham (County Hurdle)
STATS Five and six years old (eight out of nine) within a ratings parameter of 134-139 (nine winners in the decade).
FORM The ground is right for Diego Du Charmil, back to form on the last day in the Scottish County Hurdle, and always laid out for this.
Ivanovich Gorbatov drops in class and can be fancied on his third to Petit Mouchoir and Nichols Canyon over Christmas, though the stable is out of form.
L’Ami Serge is also down in grade but his best form is on soft–heavy. North Hill Harvey has been given plenty of experience of Cheltenham.
Mick Jazz has improved since joining Gordon Elliott and is a winner on good ground.
PREVIOUS FESTIVALS Arctic Fire (2nd County Hurdle 2014, 2nd Champion Hurdle 2015); Diego Du Charmil (won Fred Winter 2016); Ivanovich Gorbatov (won Triumph Hurdle 2016); L’Ami Serge (4th Supreme Novice Hurdle 2015); Wait For Me (4th County Hurdle 2016)
HIDDEN HORSE Jaleo was favourite for last year’s Fred Winter. Back on track for Ben Pauling, who won the opening race this week with Willoughby Court.
Talk about a cunning plan! Vosnee Romanee was shown Cheltenham (second), then won simple races last season with his head in his chest. Hidden by a prep run on the Flat last month. Aidan Coleman booked.
VERDICT: Diego Du Charmil is big at 20.0 in the BETDAQ orange this morning, showing 107% overround. Be warned that the bookies thieved 136% last year.
Vosnee Romanee (26.0) is in the stats parameter. Mick Jazz (10.0) completes my trio.
IT’S MY DUTY TO STAND BY KATE
2.50 Cheltenham (Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle)
STATS Every winner of this for the last 11 years had earlier won or been placed in a Grade 1 or (mainly) Grade 2 over 2m 4f or more. Exposed horses (with more than six runs) don’t do well.
FORM I had a decent punt on Augusta Kate to beat Death Duty at Naas but kiss me Kate became kiss the deck as she fell when challenging at the last. I’d been told that she was the new Annie Power.
Monalee and The World’s End add substance to the race but the other to impress me was Wholestone with two wins at Cheltenham, proving that he didn’t mind it soft though he’d won there on good.
VERDICT I can’t take 2-1 Death Duty faced with the facts in the form. The Naas race suggests that 7.8 Augusta Kate on BETDAQ is far too big, and the 105% orange allows me to back Wholestone as well: 8.6
.. AND KATIE’S A WONDERFUL BET
4.10 Cheltenham (Foxhunter Chase)
STATS Last year was the seventh time in eight seasons that the winner had started 15-2 or less.
Horses (like Salsify and On The Fringe) have won it twice but don’t start their sequences older than 10 nor continue them older than 11.
PREVIOUS FESTIVALS; Cottage Oak (3rd Foxhunter 2013); On The Fringe (3rd Foxhunter 2014; won 2015 and 2016); Paint The Clouds (3rd Foxhunter 2015 and 2016), Salsify (won Foxhunter 2012 and 2013)
VERDICT: I think it’s beyond The Fringe this time! In fact, many of these are likely to show their age on this fastish ground.
It’s the age of accession for Pacha Du Polder, but Ditcheat is raving about Wonderful Charm with Katie Walsh booked. Current Event, fourth last year, has NH Chase winning rider, Lisa O’Neill, to do the steering.
Ben Pauling has brought Dolatulo back to his best: a huge 70.0 on BETDAQ. Current Event is 80.0. These two cost nothing for the ride, with hope of places behind Wonderful Charm.
DOES JONJO HAVE THE BITE?
4.50 Cheltenham (Martin Pipe Conditionals Chase)
STATS Horses aged five and six have swept the board in the last decade. The last four renewals have been divided between Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls.
FORM Battleford has run second to Monalee, who had a big chance earlier today in the Albert Bartlett, and second to The Storyteller, who was my first choice for this race.
Runfordave (Donagh Meyler) and Tommy Silver will appreciate the trip. No Comment had a good autumn but returns after a break with his stable out of form.
PREVIOUS FESTIVALS Coo Star Sivola (3rd Fred Winter 2016), Lac Fontana (won County Hurdle, 2014)
HIDDEN HORSES Doesyourdogbite (56.0 on BETDAQ) is one of those of Jonjo’s which could bounce back. Rather Be (16.0) will appreciate the return to better ground.
VERDICT: Battleford (8.6) and Runfordave (10.5) with a pound on Doesyourdogbite
DAQMAN HORSES TO FOLLOW
1.30 DEFI DU SEUIL
2.50 WHOLESTONE
3.30 MORE OF THAT
3.30 NATIVE RIVER
DAQMAN’S ANTE-POST (to win 100 points):
1.30 MASTER BLUEYES (2.25pts win at 48.0)
DAQMAN ON THE DAY (win 50 points unless stated):
2.10 MICK JAZZ (5pts win), DIEGO DU CHARMIL (2.5pts win and place), VOSNEE ROMANEE (2pts win and place)
2.50 AUGUSTA KATE, nap (7.3pts win) and WHOLESTONE (6.5pts win)
3.30 OUTLANDER (4.5pts win and place)
4.10 WONDERFUL CHARM (10pts win), plus (to win 100) DOLATULO (1.4pts win and place) and CURRENT EVENT (1.25pts win and place)
4.50 BATTLEFORD (6.5pts win), RUNFORDAVE (5.2pts win), and DOESYOURDOGBITE (1pt win and place)
5.30 LE PREZIEN (8pts win) and DANDRIDGE (5.5pts win)
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