GOLD! SIX BANKERS ON THE TROT: Daqman’s Cheltenham romp continued on day three yesterday when he landed a 100-point ante-post bet and upgraded his banker to a 30-point gold hit on Thistlecrack (WON 1-1), after promising to bag better-priced maximums. That’s two bankers from two for the meeting and altogether six in a row:
WON 1-3 Paint The Clouds
WON 5-2 Forgiving Glance
WON 4-9 Mendip Express
WON 13-8 Le Prezien
WON 4-6 Vroum Vroum Mag
WON 1-1 Thistlecrack
100 POINTS ANTE-POST GAMBLE: But his betting coup of the day was to win 100 points from an ante-post bet on Cause Of Causes (WON 9-2) at 11.0 on BETDAQ, his third successful pre-festival gamble of the week. They were:
WON 9-2 Cause Of Causes (at 11.0 on BETDAQ): wins 100 points on Thursday
WON 8-1 Blaklion (at 12.5 on BETDAQ): wins 50 points on Wednesday
WON 4-6 Vroum Vroum Mag (at 6.0 on BETDAQ): wins 50 points on Tuesday
HE’S 9-1 UP ON PRICEWISE AT THE FESTIVAL: Thistlecrack and Cause Of Causes, which landed a 10-1 double in Daq Multiples, gave Daqman a 2-0 third-day win over Pricewise, taking him into a 9-1 Cheltenham lead, his season’s tally now 39-13 in front (overall 285-109).
CHELTENHAM TRENDING: DAQMAN HEADLINES
It’s been a sensational Cheltenham. Great memories and great stories to tell with headliners like Sprinter Sacre and Thistlecrack.
But Daqman headlined them BEFORE they won. He makes his own headlines. Coming into the final day, can he add to…?
- BANKER NAP IS NOT JUST FOR THE CRAIC! (Thursday 1-1)
- ALL IN A GOOD CAUSE: TO WIN 100 POINTS (Thursday 11-0)
- NEPTUNE AN UPHILL FINISH FOR YANWORTH (Wednesday 3-1)
- LION! GIVE US MORE OF THAT BETDAQ ROAR (Wednesday 12.5)
- SPRINTER SACRE FOR MOMENT OF HISTORY (Wednesday, 5-1)
- ARKLE: DOUVAN LOOKS AHEAD OF THE GAME (Tuesday 1-4)
- VROUM VROUM FIRST BANKER OF THE WEEK (Tuesday, 6.0)
‘TABLE’ LAID OUT FOR A FINAL-DAY FEAST
1.30 Cheltenham (Triumph Hurdle) 101%
NEGATIVE I always hope my week-ahead previews help you decide your ante-post bets. But the one for this race still holds good! I said:
‘Zubayr, Ivanovich Gorbatov and Tommy Silver all get the elbow by the stats because more than 80% triumphant in this race have had three or more previous runs. They haven’t.
‘The stats also knock Sceau Royal and Apples Jade because they’ve been too long away from the racecourse. The winner usually raced in February.
‘Ivanovich Gorbatov, Clan Des Obeaux, Let’s Dance, Who Dares Wins and Gibralfaro all fail because they didn’t win on their last day: 82% of winners had all won their latest start.’
POSITIVE Maybe my verdict was also spot on. ‘Connetable (Paul Nicholls) and Footpad (Willie Mullins) were within a length and a half of each other in France, and five of the last seven to triumph were French imports.
‘Footpad, who was best then, has more wins over here, but Connetable – narrowly beaten first run in England by Gibralfaro – officially stepped up 11lb on that (possibly more) by winning an all-age Listed from the subsequent Kingwell Hurdle winner, Rayvin Black.
‘The Paul Nicholls stable was out of form until recently, so Connetable’s success was all the more commendable. As low as 8-1, and generally 9-1 and 10-1 with bookmakers, there is 14.5 to be had about Connetable on BETDAQ.’
BETDAQ VERDICT This column backed Connetable (3.7pts to win 50) that day with 57 runners remaining, yet he’s still 15.5 this morning with only 15 left.
The reason is that his trainer, Paul Nicholls, is claiming ‘another Zarkandar’ – won this after one start – for Zabayr, which suggests that his 6.0 offers on BETDAQ this morning are likely to go. It’s a Nicholls one-two.
STARCHITECT 15.0 LOOKS BIG ON BETDAQ
2.10 Cheltenham (Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle) 104%
* I hope there will be a minute’s silence before this race for Jacqueline O’Brien, widow of the greatest trainer of the last century; Irish, of course. His son, Charles O’Brien, saddles Henry Higgins in the race. Another Cheltenham fairytale winner?
POSITIVE You’ve seen it in the Press half a dozen times: ‘Willie Mullins isn’t so good with handicappers’. So why am I discussing him under ‘Positives’?
Answer: he’s won this at 10-1, 20-1 and 25-1 in the last six years. No wonder his Great Field is one of three favourites jostling for the front of the BETDAQ market this morning.
A rating of 134-139 covers eight of the last nine winners but the race is a good 5lb better quality this year, though so tight that the last 18 are within a range of only 7lb.
NEGATIVES Pressing Great Field for favourite last night was Blue Hell, a horse who’s had only three runs in around two years!
It’s all because Blue Hell beat a certain Diamond King at Fairyhouse in November, but be warned that the trip was on the short side for Wednesday’s Coral Cup winner and he was giving weight to the winner.
FAVOURITE Then this morning came a bit of a run on Dan Skelton’s Superb Story, straight into the market lead.
But, as you might expect of a fledgling trainer, Dan is falling short of the edge needed to crack one of the Cheltenham pots. Form figures there this week: 0000F0320440. Working hard; will do better.
Superb Story was second to Old Guard in the Greatwood but the next 12 horses behind them have failed to score since.
Philip Hobbs (three runners in this) has also failed to hit the board from the Cheltenham oche this week, with festival form of 000F0FP30PP.
FORM Is it Nicholls v Ireland again? Ditcheat has had four winners and three others in the four in 12 years; Ireland has won seven of the last 10. Of the Nicholls’ trio I prefer All Yours and Some Plan over Modus.
But Cheltenham has seen a revival in the fortunes of David Pipe and Starchitect (fourth when All Yours was fifth in the 2015 Fred Winter) has a sound chance on his second in the BF Hurdle, with the Imperial Cup winner in third. Blazer (ninth) held the form up when fourth in the Coral Cup.
Starchitect is in front of Henry Higgins in this handicap on a line through Kalkir and, in fact, the Irish have been badly treated weights wise.
HIDDEN HORSES The Fred Winter winner of 2014, Hawk High has been forgotten after soft ground beat him in the County Hurdle last year, when he also lost a shoe. Blinkered first time.
John Constable, 12lb better for four lengths with Sternrubin at Newbury in November, has been put away for this. I just worry about the moderate stable form, though you have Paul Moloney riding for you.
BETDAQ VERDICT The 15.0 offers in the orange about Starchitect looked far too big. He is those vital few pounds low in the handicap where the winners come from. Hawk High could go well at a big price (34.0).
SHANTOU SHINES IN THE BETTING VILLAGE
2.50 Cheltenham (Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle) 102%
POSITIVES Every winner of this in the decade has won or been placed in a Grade 1 or (mainly) Grade 2 over 2m 4f or more.
That, theoretically, leaves you with Barters Hill, Champers On ice, Jonniesofa, Long Dog, Open Eagle, Shantou Village, Uknowhatimeanharry and Up For Review.
NEGATIVES Exposed horses (more than six runs) don’t do well. Take out Bachasson, Fagan, Jonniesofa, Solstice Star, Uknowhatimeanharry and Up For Review.
FAVOURITE Shantou Village ran second to Grade-1 Neptune runner-up Yanworth here over the course and distance, beating Champers On iIce for a second time.
FORM Barters Hill looks overrated after Politologue’s poor run in the Coral Cup and Ballydine’s proximity to Jonniesofa in the form book.
Gangster has beaten nothing well, and there’s not a lot between Long Dog and Bleu Et Rouge.
BETDAQ VERDICT: The burgeoning Bath stable of Neil Mulholland won the Neptune with Shantou Village last year and he’s long laid him out for this race. The market rejects the Irish in his favour.
GOLD CUP: DJAKADAM JUST FROM DON POLI
3.30 Cheltenham Gold Cup 101%
NEGATIVES The big negative here is that four horses are within a couple of points of each other at the head of the market. That’s fine value wise because you have BETDAQ on your side with a 101% total orange. But how toc hoose between them?
You can find some negatives per horse: Don Cossack, because he hasn’t finished first or second at the festival before (stats are 75% against him).
Djakadam’s negative is that he’s fallen twice, including at Cheltenham (80% against him)
And the 10-year-old Cue Card from the Thistlecrack yard is too old (90% of winners are aged seven to nine).
FORM But all that is to deny the mighty Cue Card his King George, Don Cossack his 10-out-of-11 winning sequence, still standing, and Djakadam his unlucky defeat last year in that no one expected Coneygree to carry on running like he did.
Ruby Walsh had timed his challenge to perfection and it was unbelievable that Conegree didn’t stop then.
VERDICT: Cue Card is better than ever; Don Cossack is brilliant at Punchestown and Aintree.
But the young Cheltenham princes Don Poli (won the RSA – best guide to gold – last year) and 2015 runner-up Djakadam are only seven, and one of them could emerge king for years here, such is the strength in depth of this Gold Cup.
BETDAQ: I must give Djkadam the second chance I promised myself (4.5 offers), though Ruby Walsh over Davy Russell still has to be a hard sell in my book.
Today is a low-key day for betting, and I’ve reduced my stake accordingly. But, rather than be seen to tip only a non-runner (Pricewise), I shall do the decent thing and put my head on the block;
GOLD CUP 1 Djakadam, 2 Don Poli, 3 Cue Card. LAY: Don Cossack
CHARLIE IS MY FOXHUNTER’S DARLING..
4.10 Cheltenham, (Foxhunter) 104%
NEGATIVES Amateur riders here; conditionals in the next. Maybe the bookies all got together to frame the Cheltenham finale. If they can’t win these, they should stick to fruit machines.
Yes, of course I hope Ms Pendleton will get round. I just hope she doesn’t do so well that she thinks this Foxhunter is anything like the Fox Hunters equivalent over the Grand National fences.
She will be very tempted, since Pacha De Polder was second in the Liverpool race last year.
VERDICT Stick with the younger horses but not with a baby aged six (It Came To Pass). Then choose between the best jockeys:
Jamie Codd (Aupchgarlie) was superb on Cause Of Causes yesterday, but William Biddick (Current Event),] and Derek O’Connor (Need To Know) have horses of the right age.
Last year’s winner (On The Fringe) beat (Paint The Clouds) into third but Clouds should lift his game on the better ground. If only trainer Warren Greatrex had had a better festival so far: 0P00P4
BETDAQ On The Fringe is a short-priced favourite but I shall stick with Jamie Codd and Aupcharlie at 11.5; saver on the favourite.
ONE MORE FOR MULLINS LIST OF WINNERS
4.50 Cheltenham (Conditional Jockeys’ Hurdle) 101%
POSITIVES Willie Mullins (Childrens List) goes for a hat-trick here after Don Poli and Kilultagh Vic, who were already Graded hurdlers. So let’s look for class.
Qualando won last year’s Fred Winter; Flying Angel won the Imperial Cup less than a week go; Label Des Obeaux won the Neptune Trial. That’s it, really.
NEGATIVES With pretensions of grandeur, but still with something to prove are, Bivouac, Goodwood Mirage, Ibis Du Rheu, Jetstream Jack, Montdragon, Urano, Westend Star and Whiteout.
FAVOURITE By this time, J P McManus will be wanting to know why his Squouateur doesn’t get a mention?
The fact is that he’s won only a handicap at Fairyhouse in February but that race got a tremendous boost yesterday when the third horse home, Mall Dini, took the Pertemps Final for Galway cool – the very clever Patrick Kelly – and the grinning iceman himself, Davy Russell.
BETDAQ VERDICT Childrens List gets the Mullins vote this morning and 13.0 looks generous. Qualando (11.5) is the English champions response. Squouateur the saver
13.0 BETDAQ VALUE FOR THE FINAL FLING
5.30 Cheltenham (Grand Annual Chase) 104%
POSITIVE In-form Gordon Elliott has been waiting for good ground for Bright New Dawn, who managed to score on the last day Clonmel, despite hating the heavy.
Four winners out of five were rated 140-145, with a maximum weight of 11st 5lb. When I checked all the stats for my preview, Sizing Codelco and last year’s winner, Next Sensation, were a good fit.
Rock The World has been competing at Graded level but the stable is not firing, and I prefer Velvet Maker, who seems a natural at the jumping game.
FAVOURITE Despite recent form of P0000, Next Sensation has always taken front rank in the ante-post market, and is still popular on the day. He’s had a breathing op since his last run and goes well fresh.
NEGATIVES But only one favourite has won this in the decade, with a 16-1 SP going for the hat-trick, and other shocks at 20-1 (twice) and 40-1.
I can’t have Rock The World for Jessica Harrington, after the shocking efforts at the festival this week of New To The Town and Oscar Sam, and Philip Hobbs (Dunraven Storm and Bold Henry) seems to have lost his edge.
Venetia Williams (Arthur’s Oak and Gardefort) and Gary Moore (Chris Pea Green) have also been expensive to follow at the festival. Dan Skelton (Savello and Workbench) has been just missing strike, good efforts but not good enough.
BETDAQ VERDICT Velvet Maker was a tasty 13.0 this morning, strongly fancied by connections. Eastlake has his ground and 13.0 also looks good.
DAQMAN’S BETS (to win 30 points each)
1.30 Cheltenham
BET 6pts win ZABAYR, and already ante-post (to win 50) CONNETABLE.
2.10 Cheltenham
BET 2pts win and place STARCHITECT, and 1pt win and place HAWK HIGH
2.50 Cheltenham
BET 7.5pts win SHANTOU VILLAGE
3.30 Cheltenham
BET 8.5pts win (nap) DJAKADAM and LAY to lose 10pts DON COSSACK
4.10 Cheltenham
BET 3pts win and place AUPCHARLIE, and 2.5pts win (stakes saver) ON THE FRINGE
4.50 Cheltenham
BET 2.8pts win QUALANDO and 2.5pts win CHILDRENS LIST, with 2pts win stakes saver) SQUOUATEUR for the 1-2-3
5.30 Cheltenham
BET 2.5pts win on each EASTLAKE and VELVET MAKER
DAQ MULTIPLES: 5 x 1pt win doubles and 2 x 1pt win trebles Zabayr and Connetable (1.30 Cheltenham) with Shantou Village (2.50 Cheltenham) and Djakadam (3.30 Cheltenham)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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